Iraq Oil Report had an article on what everyone expected to happen. The Oil Ministry started major production cuts amongst southern oil fields. A Basra Oil Company official said the government may cut output from over 4 million barrels a day down to just 1 million. Kurdistan has already halted all of its production.
This is due to the Iran war which has closed down the Strait of Hormuz. Almost all of Iraq’s oil exports travel through that route.
Fields that are targeted for reductions or shut downs are South Rumaila, West Qurna 2, Majnoon and some smaller fields in Basra along with Gharraf in Dhi Qar.
If the conflict continues Iraq could be down to around 2 million barrels of day in production. That will be used for refineries and power plants that can use crude.
This will devastate the entire economy as Iraq is the most oil dependent country in the world. Most importantly payment of government salaries and pensions will be delayed which will most likely lead to protests across the country.
On the war front the U.S. and Israel attacked the Sayid al-Shuhada Brigade in Rashidiya northeast of Mosul and a headquarters in Qubba north of the city. This was the first time the group had been targeted. The Shabak 30th Hashd Brigade had a camp in the Bashiqa district in east Ninewa and a headquarters in Bartella east of Mosul but hit. 3 Hashd members were wounded in a strike in Samawa in Muthanna province. Kataib Hezbollah was hit for the second time in Anbar’s Akashat. Another Hashd unit was struck in Diyala. Finally members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) faced an airstrike in the desert between Najaf and Karbala killing one and wounded two others. Whether they were regular members of the ISF or a Hashd controlled unit was not mentioned. The U.S. and Israel appear to be picking targets of opportunity along with some well established bases like Kataib Hezbollah’s in Babil’s Jurf al-Sakhr to go after. This shows that Iraq is not a focus of the conflict so far.
Iran and the Iraq Resistance have tried to retaliate but have largely failed so far. Victoria base at Baghdad airport faced two drone assaults. The Iranian opposition party the Kurdistan Freedom Party was hit by a missile for the second time killing one and wounded three others. March 3 there were 6 reported attacks and 8 on March 2.
SOURCES
Iraq Oil Report, “Iraq begins nationwide production shutdowns,” 3/4/26
Kurdistan 24, “Wave of Strikes Hits PMF Bases in Iraq as Syria Reinforces Borders Amid Regional Escalation,” 3/4/26
NINA, “Security Media Cell: A Drone Shot Down Near Baghdad International Airport,” 3/4/26
Rudaw, “Missile attack kills Rojhelat Peshmerga in Erbil,” 3/4/26
Shafaq News, “Four attacks target Popular Mobilization Forces positions in Nineveh (Update),” 3/4/26
Al Sumaria, “Between Karbala and Najaf, an airstrike targeted security forces, and the Security Media Cell confirmed: “We will deal with it militarily,”” 3/4/26
- “This is the second such incident today: an attack targeting Victoria base at

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