Mosul Campaign Day 261 Jul 4 2017

Red shows the area remaining under Islamic State control in Mosul (Ninewa Media Cell)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) were fighting in the center and southern sections of the Old City. The Rapid Reaction Division was operating in Bob al-Tob one of the southern entrances to the district. The Golden Division and 16^th Division were in Maidan, Kawazin, Qalahat, Barka, and Ras al-Koor, that was declared freed yesterday, in the middle of the Old City. Roughly 40% of the district remains to be freed. That area stretches from the Tigris River down to the southcentral neighborhood of Bob al-Tob. Some ISF maps show only the section along the Tigris as still being under Islamic State control, but those are inaccurate.

Mosul Campaign Day 260 Jul 3 2017

Iraqi government is not coordinating their media releases. Ninewa Media Center (bottom) shows much more of the Old City in west Mosul to be cleared compared to the War Media Cell (top)

Golden Division evacuating civilians from Old City west Mosul (The National)

There were more advances in the Old City in west Mosul by the Iraqi forces (ISF). The Golden Division seized Ras al-Koor in the center of the district, the Federal Police took Bab al-Sarai, and was advancing on Khalid Ibn al-Waleed and Nujafi, while the Rapid Reaction Division reached Khalid Bin al-Waleed Street. Katunya was attacked by the 16^th Division and a garage was taken in Sargkhana although both were supposedly freed. Depending upon the source the ISF has 200-250 meters to reach the Tigris River. A general from the Golden Division predicted that the fighting would be over in a week. On the other hand, Federal Police chief General Raed Shakir Jawadat claimed his units had finished their mission and were waiting for Prime Minister Haider Abadi to announce victory over the Islamic State. The Joint Operations Command corrected him saying that the Federal Police were still in combat and had not taken all their objectives. Roughly 40% of the Old City remains in Islamic State control. The end is near however, which means Iraqi releases are over anxious to proclaim victory.

Did The Pentagon Adequately Prepare For Postwar Iraq? Interview With RAND’s James Dobbins

In January 2003 President Bush gave the Pentagon control of postwar Iraq. Douglas Feith the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy was put in charge of planning. Before the invasion, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called in a group of outside experts to review what had been drawn up. One of those was James Dobbins from the RAND Corporation. This is an interview with Dobbins about what he thought about the Pentagon’s plans for Iraq.

Mosul Campaign Day 259 Jul 2 2017

Iraqi police units held a parade in west Mosul to celebrate their recent victories. Larger celebrations planned for when the entire city is liberated (Al Ghad Press)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) continued their advance down the middle of the Old City and along the south. The Golden Division took Makawi in the center. It and the Federal Police were also in several other areas fighting over mosques, squares, and markets. The Golden Division claimed there was just 400 meters to reaching the Tigris River and the full liberation of the city. While different Iraqi maps are showing divergent areas under government control roughly half of the Old City remains to be freed.

Musings On Iraq In The News

July 1 I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5 on the future of the Islamic State and rebuilding Mosul. I was quoted by Paul Iddon in “Islamic State’s last stand in Iraq: Who will liberate Hawija?” in Rudaw, and mentioned in "Medeniyet mirasi barbarliga kurban" by Detay Haber in Turkey's Karar. I was also cited in The Second Cold War by Luiz Alberto Moniz Bandiera, The Iraqi Federation: Origin, Operation and Significance by Farah Shakir,  "Honesty and Transparency Are Not Enough" by Andrew Gelman In Chance, "Realizing an Opportunity: Limiting the Power of the Executive in the Iraqi Constitution" by Cory Kopitzke in Indiana Journal of Constitutional Design, and "A Pedigree of Terror: The Myth of the Ba'athist Influence in the Islamic State Movement" by Craig Whiteside in Perspectives On Terrorism. 

Mosul Campaign Day 258 Jul 1 2017

Students cleaning up Mosul University campus building in east Mosul (Los Angeles Times)

The ninth month of the Mosul campaign saw another day of advances. First, the Rapid Reaction Division freed Shifa north of the Old City district along the Tigris River for the fifth time. The Iraqi forces (ISF) entered the neighborhood at the end of May and immediately got caught up in the medical complex. Iraqi propaganda obscured exactly what happened but either the hospitals were constantly changing hands or the Iraqis never cleared them completely until now. The Ibn Sina Hospital for example was taken on May 28 and then again on July 1.

Mosul Campaign Day 257 Jun 30 2017

Fighting in the rubble of the Old City west Mosul (Radio Nawa)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) are making rapid gains in the Old City of west Mosul. The Federal Police claimed they freed Bab al-Lakash in the south of the district, but there were multiple reports that fighting was still going on there. Also in the south the army’s 16^th Division seized Farouq 2 and Masnouriya, while the Golden Division were moving in the center and north and took Shahar Suq, Nabi jarjeesh, and Abdul Khoob. Heavy clashes were also going on in Bab Jadid, Sargkhana, Mashahj, Bab al-Bakr, Qurnish, Bab al-Baid and Khazraj. Those last two have been declared liberated before. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division were also clearing out south Sargkhana in the Old City and the medical complex in Shifa, a neighborhood to the south of the district along the Tigris River. After taking Nouri Mosque the ISF are continuing with their multi-pronged attack against the Islamic State. The three thrusts into the Old City, north, center and south, has now been joined by a fourth coming down from Shifa along the Tigris River. From the start the plan has been to divide up the district into smaller and smaller parts and then destroy the IS fighters contained within. The Golden Division’s General Abdul Ghani al-Asadi believes there are only 200-300 IS left in the Old City, and while the Iraqis are pushing the theme that things will be over in a few days it would not be surprising if it was a bit longer than that.