Red shows the area remaining under Islamic State control in
Mosul (Ninewa Media Cell)
The Iraqi forces (ISF) were fighting in the center and southern
sections of the Old City. The Rapid Reaction Division was operating in Bob al-Tob one
of the southern entrances to the district. The Golden
Division and 16th
Division were in Maidan, Kawazin, Qalahat, Barka, and Ras al-Koor, that was
declared freed
yesterday, in the middle of the Old City. Roughly 40% of the district remains
to be freed. That area stretches from the Tigris River down to the southcentral
neighborhood of Bob al-Tob. Some ISF maps show only the section along the
Tigris as still being under Islamic State control, but those are inaccurate.
Iraqi commanders and politicians continue to jump the gun on
the finale in Mosul. Prime Minister Haider Abadi in his weekly speech congratulated
the ISF for its victory in Mosul even though there is still fighting going on.
Ninewa Operations Command head General Najm al-Jabouri predicted
that the battle would be over in two days by July 6, while the Joint Operations
Command had it at 3-4 days.
The ISF could also not agree on how much of the Old City they still had to
clear. General Yahya Rasool told the press there were 300 meters to
reach the Tigris, General Abdul Ghani al-Asadi of the Golden Division put it at
250
meters, topped by General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi, also of the Golden Division
who had it at only 150
meters. All of these miss the point that simply reaching the Tigris will
not mean that the fighting will be over. Al-Mada
reported that the Iraqis wanted to declare the campaign over on July 4, the
anniversary of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s declaration of the caliphate,
but that didn’t happen. These are all typical of Iraqi propaganda. Each
division, and even commander is competing with the others to brag about how
much they have done. The government’s demand for constant positive news in its
victory narrative is another incentive for these statements. They should all be
taken with a huge grain of salt as the ISF has proven to be consistently
inconsistent and full of hyperbole.
The Islamic State carried off another operation in a
liberated section of Mosul. This time it ambushed
16 ISF members in Hadbaa in the northeastern tip of the city killing all of
them. The militants crossed the Tigris, and snuck into the neighborhood. For
the last week and a half IS has been launching these attacks almost every day.
Most have been foiled, but they are spreading fears in sections of the city,
and amongst the displaced slowing down the rate of return.
As soon is Mosul is freed, the ISF will turn its attention
to Tal Afar to the west. Ninewa Operations Commander General Najm al-Jabouri said
that the 9th Division, Golden Division, and Federal Police will
assault the town after they are finished in Mosul. Inside Tal Afar, the Islamic
State reportedly executed
some 200 Turkmen. The town has been surrounded for months, but Baghdad held off
on assaulting it due to Turkish complaints about what would happen if the Hashd
were involved, and attention being focused upon Mosul. Now that the latter is
coming to an end, plans are finally starting to be formulated for the village.
The Hashd were hoping to take Tal Afar, but are now busy
along the Iraq-Syrian border. They were securing
more towns in the frontier. Their base in the area is Baaj, which they
have emptied of civilians and not allowed any to return. The mayor tried to go
back and re-open his office, but was denied. They also repulsed
another IS attack from Syria. The Hashd were excluded from entering Mosul by
Prime Minister Abadi out of fear of the reaction of the locals to their
presence. They were then told to take Tal Afar, but that was aborted. Instead
they have been given the task of clearing the vast expanse of west Ninewa,
which was largely absent of IS, but included a huge amount of territory. It
appears that they are now focused upon controlling the border area and have set
up a security zone there based around Baaj. They may also be preparing to
create the much ballyhooed land corridor from Iran to Syria to assist Tehran in
its backing of the Assad government. Both of those reasons are why they have
displaced the locals.
The United Nations’ High Commissioner for Refugees reported
on the war widows in Mosul. It spoke with one woman who escaped the city, but
were captured. Her husband was taken away and executed, while she and her
children later escaped. Now they live in a camp and are worried about not only how
they will make a living as the father was the money maker, but also what will
happen to the children growing up without him. The U.N. estimated that more
than 25% of the families at the Hamam al-Alil 2 camp south of Mosul were headed
by women. This is another unintended consequence of the war versus the
insurgency that will continue to influence Iraqi society.
Former Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi continued to be a
critic of the Mosul operation. He claimed
that once the city is liberated there will be continued problems. He
specifically mentioned a leadership vacuum. That may be true for the short
term, but Ninewa does have a provincial council and governor, and local
administration inside the city will be appointed eventually. Nujafi’s comments
are also driven by his own desire to return to power in the governorate, so
they cannot always be taken at face value.
There are more signs that life is returning inside the city.
The Higher Education Minister Abdul Razza al-Issa announced that Mosul University
would officially re-open the next school year starting in September 2017. Work
is already being done, mostly by volunteers to rebuild the facility, and a
small group of students were able to take their exams
in June. There is also an international effort to donate books for the
university’s library. This is another instance of the resiliency of the people
of Mosul. They have largely taken matters into their own hands to put the city
back together. The school is a perfect example.
Seven Christian groups met in Brussels calling
for a Ninewa Plains autonomous region. The Plains were one of the traditional
homelands of Iraq’s Christian community. They were nearly all displaced when IS
took over in 2014. Many have gone to Irbil, Baghdad or other countries. There
is an open question about how many will go back. Many mistrust their neighbors
and fear for their security. While civil groups in the province have made
efforts to welcome them back, and some priests are also calling for them to
rebuild their communities, there are many others that are warning that there
may be irreparable damage to their psyche and they may never return. The
Islamic State tore apart Ninewa, and it will have a lasting impact. If the
province losses most of its Christians it will be a huge blow to Ninewa and
Iraq’s diversity that has already suffered so much since 2003.
SOURCES
Abu Zeed, Adnan,
“Iraqi civil society groups seek to restock Mosul libraries,” Al Monitor,
7/3/17
Ali, Nasr, “Hashd
forces bar mayor, residents from return to town west of Mosul,” Rudaw, 7/4/17
Chmaytelli, Maher
and Kalin, Stephen, “Iraq slows advance on last IS pocket in Mosul packed with
civilians,” Reuters, 7/4/17
Al Forat, "Popular crowd announces the death of 100
Daesh in thwarted attack on Tal Fok border," 7/4/17
- “URGENT Saadi: We
are fighting 100 suicide bombers in the last 150 meters in the old Mosul,”
7/4/17
- “URGENT The media
cell expects victory to be announced early next week,” 7/4/17
George, Susannah,
“Iraqi PM congratulates troops on ‘big victory’ in Mosul,” Associated Press,
7/4/17
Al Ghad Press,
“Iraqi forces thwart attempts to escape from Mosul to the left bank by the
Tigris,” 7/4/17
- “Rapid Response
units free Bab al-Tob and municipal council building in West Mosul,” 7/4/17
Iraq Broadcasting
Network News, “Security Forces Announce The Liberation Of The Courtyard In Bab
al-Tob In West Mosul,” 7/4/17
Iraq Newspaper, “Al
Iraq Reporter In Mosul: Currently US And French Air Strikes On The Right Bank,”
7/4/17
Kalin, Stephen and
Chmaytelli, Maher, “Islamic State cornered in Mosul as Iraq prepares victory
celebrations,” Reuters, 7/3/17
Loveluck, Louisa and
Shwan, Aaso Ameen, “Islamic State mounts final stand for Mosul as bloodied and
dazed civilians flee,” Washington Post, 7/4/17
Al Mada, “The battle
for the last meters in old Mosul may take another week,” 7/5/17
Mostafa, Nehal, "IS
executes 200 Turkmens, last local leader in Tal Afar," Iraqi News, 7/4/17
Mostafa, Nehal-
News, 7/4/17
- “Twenty-two
civilians rescued, militants killed in Mosul’s Old City,” Iraqi News, 7/4/17
Neuhof, Florian,
“Battle-weary civilians tread a perilous path out of Mosul,” The National,
7/4/17
New Sabah, “Joint
forces begin to liberate the last neighborhoods of Mosul,” 7/4/17
- “Minister of
Education announces the resumption of work at the University of Mosul next
September,” 7/4/17
Otten, Cathy,
“Mosul’s war widows face new challenges in displacement,” UN High Commissioner
for Refugees, 7/4/17
Radio Sawa, "Counterterrorism forces: 200
meters separate us from the Tigris," 7/3/17
Al Rafidain,
“Nujafi: Real Problems In Mosul Will Begin After The End Of The War With The
Islamic State,” 7/4/17
Shafaaq News, “4
killed trying to flee by swimming from old city and seized a cache of drugs in
central Mosul,” 7/4/17
- “Last chapter of
the battle of Mosul,” 7/4/17
Sotaliraq, “7
Christian parties agree on establishment of Nineveh plain plan,” 7/4/17
Xinhua, “Iraq to
declare full liberation of Mosul from IS within 2 days,” 7/4/17
- “Iraqi forces close in on IS redoubt in Mosul’s old city,”
7/4/17
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