 |
| (Modern Diplomacy) |
After a spate of bad weather at the start of the winter the seas cleared and Iraq’s southern ports in Basra were back at capacity. That along with a new agreement between Baghdad and Irbil to use the latter’s pipeline to Turkey resulted in a new high in Iraq’s oil exports. The problem was this came as petroleum prices took a large hit.
Iraq recorded a new high in oil exports in December 2018. It
averaged 3.726
million barrels a day, up from 3.377 million in November and 3.478
million in October when poor
weather made it hard for ships to dock in Iraq’s Basra ports. The
previous high was 3.58 million barrels in August. The country finished the year
averaging 3.498 million barrels a day, a new record as well. Back in 2014 Iraq
had an annual average of 2.517 million barrels, going to 3.003 million in 2015,
hitting a plateau of 3.3 million in 2016-17, before new infrastructure opened
up to allow for the increase in 2018.
The bulk of those exports travelled through Basra that
shipped an average of 3.627 million barrels in December. A new agreement with
the Kurdistan Regional Government also allowed 99,000 barrels a day to be sold via
Turkey. The flow through the pipeline was at 76,000 barrels a day, while the
rest was taken from storage. That was up from 8,700 barrels a day in November
when the two sides initially made the deal.
The new high and flow to Turkey were up ended by a large
drop in oil prices. Worries about slowing economies and excessive supply led
the price of a barrel of Iraqi crude to go from $73.38 in October to $61.09 in
November to $52.80 in December. Iraq ended with an annual average of $65.61 per
barrel. Figures are incomplete for 2016 and 2017, but back in 2014 Iraqi oil
was selling for over $100 a barrel before the oil market collapsed leading to
an average of $44.81 in 2015. Prices have been climbing upwards since the end
of 2017, but the market could be facing new instability as it enters 2019. This
is the dilemma Iraq faces having its whole economy and government linked to a
volatile commodities market.
Iraq earned $6.1 billion as a result in December, the lowest
since $5.77 billion in February. At the end of the year Iraq earned an average
of $6.953 That was the most since $7.017 million per month in 2014.
In January a new production quota will be set by OPEC to try
to stabilize prices. Iraq said it would follow the new agreement, although it
cheated throughout the last deal by the organization attempting to boost its
production and exports as high as it could. If the markets are volatile in the
new year it will be interesting to see if Iraq actually follows through this
time or whether it continues to follow its own path, and whether that
undermines its effort by further lowering prices.
Federal Oil
Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018
|
Month
|
Avg Export (Mil)
|
Avg Price
|
Earnings (Bil)
|
|
Jan 2014
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.073
|
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$7.9
|
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
|
Apr
|
2.51
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
|
May
|
2.58
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
|
Jun
|
2.423
|
$102.96
|
$7.47
|
|
Jul
|
2.442
|
$102.27
|
$7.8
|
|
Aug
|
2.375
|
$97.44
|
$7.172
|
|
Sep
|
2.542
|
$90.76
|
$7
|
|
Oct
|
2.461
|
$81.12
|
$6.19
|
|
Nov
|
2.51
|
$70.40
|
$5.238
|
|
Dec
|
2.94
|
$57
|
$5.195
|
|
2014
Totals
|
2.517
|
$92.39
|
$7.017
|
|
Jan 2015
|
2.535
|
$41.45
|
$3.258
|
|
Feb
|
2.597
|
$47.43
|
$3.449
|
|
Mar
|
2.980
|
$48.24
|
$3.449
|
|
Apr
|
3.077
|
$51.70
|
$4.8
|
|
May
|
3.145
|
$55.87
|
$5.447
|
|
Jun
|
3.187
|
$55.32
|
$5.289
|
|
Jul
|
3.105
|
$50.99
|
$4.908
|
|
Aug
|
3.079
|
$40.59
|
$3.925
|
|
Sep
|
3.052
|
$40.32
|
$3.725
|
|
Oct
|
2.703
|
$39.56
|
$3.29
|
|
Nov
|
3.363
|
$36.42
|
$3.66
|
|
Dec
|
3.216
|
$29.84
|
$2.92
|
|
2015
Totals
|
3.003
|
$44.81
|
$4.094
|
|
Jan 2016
|
3.285
|
$22.21
|
$2.262
|
|
Feb
|
3.224
|
$23
|
$2.249
|
|
Mar
|
3.287
|
$28.40
|
$2.894
|
|
Apr
|
3.363
|
$33.38
|
$3.368
|
|
May
|
3.2
|
$37.78
|
$3.748
|
|
Jun
|
3.175
|
$40.36
|
$3.845
|
|
Jul
|
3.203
|
$38.28
|
$3.802
|
|
Aug
|
3.229
|
$29.24
|
$3.928
|
|
Sep
|
3.276
|
$38.89
|
$3.822
|
|
Oct
|
3.384
|
-
|
$4.426
|
|
Nov
|
3.47
|
$40
|
$4.216
|
|
Dec
|
3.52
|
-
|
$5.074
|
|
2016
Totals
|
3.302
|
-
|
$3.625
|
|
Jan 2017
|
3.321
|
-
|
$5.002
|
|
Feb
|
3.270
|
-
|
$4.514
|
|
Mar
|
3.258
|
$47.18
|
$4.766
|
|
Apr
|
3.253
|
$47.27
|
$4.607
|
|
May
|
3.261
|
$47
|
$4.623
|
|
Jun
|
3.273
|
$42.07
|
$4.144
|
|
Jul
|
3.230
|
$43.80
|
$4.386
|
|
Aug
|
3.216
|
-
|
$4.608
|
|
Sep
|
3.24
|
-
|
$4.882
|
|
Oct
|
3.346
|
$52.59
|
$5.456
|
|
Nov
|
3.502
|
$59.19
|
$6.021
|
|
Dec
|
3.535
|
$59.35
|
$6.504
|
|
2017
Totals
|
3.309
|
-
|
$4.959
|
|
Jan 2018
|
3.490
|
$63.29
|
$6.847
|
|
Feb
|
3.426
|
$60.14
|
$5.770
|
|
Mar
|
3.453
|
$59.95
|
$6.418
|
|
Apr
|
3.340
|
$64.60
|
$6.502
|
|
May
|
3.489
|
$69.80
|
$7.551
|
|
Jun
|
3.521
|
$69.32
|
$7.323
|
|
Jul
|
3.544
|
$69.16
|
$7.532
|
|
Aug
|
3.583
|
$69.65
|
$7.735
|
|
Sep
|
3.56
|
$74.15
|
$7.919
|
|
Oct
|
3.478
|
$73.38
|
$7.908
|
|
Nov
|
3.377
|
$61.09
|
$6.195
|
|
Dec
|
3.726
|
$52.80
|
$6.1
|
|
2018
Totals
|
3.498
|
$65.61
|
$6.953
|
SOURCES
Rasheed, Ahmed, “Iraq’s oil exports rise to 3.73 million bpd
in December: oil ministry,” Reuters, 1/2/19
Van Heuvelen, Ben and Lando, Ben, “Iraq finishes 2018 with
record-breaking exports,” Iraq Oil Report, 1/3/19
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