Rate of Return For Iraq’s Displaced Increased At End of 2018

For the last year and a half the rate of return for Iraq’s displaced (IDPs) has been steadily decreasing. With homes destroyed, the lack of jobs and services, people being banned from their home areas due to their affiliation with the Islamic State, and others starting a new life fewer people were making the decision to go back. At the end of 2018 that pattern changed with more people going home than the previous period.

There were 1,802,832 IDPs at the end of December 2018. That was down from 1,866,648 in October for a total of 63,816 returns over the two months. That averaged out to 31,908 people going back per month. That compared to an average of 26,904 returning a month from September to October.

Every province except for Sulaymaniya had a reduction in the number of IDPs they housed. Salahaddin led the country with a drop of 14,268 people, followed by 9,636 in Dohuk, 9,390 in Anbar, 8,490 in Ninewa, 5,844 in Baghdad, 5,550 in Kirkuk, 3,234 n Diyala, 2,406 in Najaf, 1,482 in Irbil, 972 in Babil, 762 in Qadisiya, 624 in Karbala, 486 in Dhi Qar, 312 in Wasit, 168 in Basra, 150 in Maysan, and 60 in Muthanna. That showed that people were leaving across the country, and especially in those areas in northern and central Iraq with the highest number of IDPs.

At the same time there is new displacement going on as well. The International Organization for Migration recorded 150,222 people leaving their homes in 2018. Almost all of these have been displaced, tried to return, and then left again for a number of issues. 121,776 people went through that last year. For example, the United Nations reported 1,124 families entering IDP camps in November. 567 of them had gone through secondary displacement. People have complained of a lack of jobs and services, their homes being destroyed, and retaliation for being associated with the Islamic State for becoming displaced once again. A spokesman for the UN Human Rights Commission told the press that the government hasn’t fulfilled its promises to aid IDPs and rebuild war torn areas, which means this will persist.  

Iraq is going through its second mass displacement crisis since 2003. While two-thirds of IDPs have returned, the number of people going through that process dwindled in 2018. Aid groups like the International Organization for Migration worry that most of those still displaced will remain so permanently due to poor conditions in their home areas, being banned for their ties to IS or because they have started a new life. This will be the second time in recent history that a sizeable population will have lost their homes and not returned, pointing to the difficulties the country has gone through since 2003.

Displaced By Province

Province	March	May	July	Aug	Oct	Dec
Ninewa	665,910	620,628	602,490	598,578	584,520	576,030
Dohuk	354,432	350,232	349,782	349,776	347,232	337,596
Irbil	232,164	222,738	217,506	216,570	213,402	211,920
Salahaddin	205,182	184,854	169,518	163,812	151,920	137,652
Sulaymaniya	165,630	154,020	151,698	150,888	150,876	150,894
Kirkuk	146,202	133,770	124,668	120,798	113,688	108,138
Baghdad	128,064	107,832	90,852	85,080	75,048	69,204
Anbar	84,552	81,192	74,982	71,664	70,074	60,684
Diyala	78,054	64,674	62,448	62,172	62,298	59,064
Najaf	36,900	30,396	23,400	17,322	15,264	12,858
Karbala	34,680	27,018	23,280	23,004	22,722	22,098
Babil	27,978	25,794	22,818	20,496	19,662	18,690
Qadisiya	13,926	12,882	12,228	12,060	12,012	11,250
Wasit	13,680	13,164	12,042	12,132	12,018	11,706
Basra	8,496	8,046	8,082	7,968	7,872	7,704
Dhi Qar	4,476	4,098	4,086	4,080	4,038	3,552
Maysan	3,126	3,006	2,832	2,796	2,742	2,592
Muthanna	1,800	1,374	1,272	1,260	1,260	1,200
TOTAL	2,205,252	2,045,718	1,953,984	1,920,456	1,866,648	1,802,832

Total Number of Displaced Oct 2017-Dec 2018

Month	Total Displaced	Difference
October 2017	3,174,678
November 2017	2,883,738	-290,940
December 2017	2,615,988	-267,750
February 2018	2,317,698	-298,290 (2 months)
March 2018	2,205,252	-112,446
May 2018	2,045,718	-159,534 (2 months)
Jul 2018	1,953,984	-91,734 (2 months)
August 2018	1,920,456	-33,528
October 2018	1,866,648	-53,808 (2 months)
December 2018	1,802,832	-63,816 (2 months)

SOURCES

International Organization for Migration, “Displacement Tracking Matrix DTM Round

107,” December 2018

Middle East Monitor, “Iraq is not serious about allowing displaced citizens to return, says UN,” 1/18/19

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, “Iraq Protection Update – November 2018,” December 2018