Number of Displaced Returning Home In Iraq Cut In Half In 2019

The first six months of 2019 has seen a nearly 50% reduction in the number of displaced (IDPs) who are returning to their homes. While the vast majority of people have made the venture back there is still over one and half million IDPs. At the same time over 500,000 of those that have gone back are living in severe conditions. This highlights the lack of a government policy to deal with internal refugees, reconciliation and reconstruction.

By June 2019 there were 1,607,148 IDPs and 4,305,138 returnees. From May to June an average of 28,980 people went home per month. That was down from 39,936 returns per month from March to April, almost the same amount seen from January and February. Overall, in the first six months of 2019 196,684 people have gone back for an average of 32,615 per months versus an average of 67,763 per month in 2018. Since the spring of 2018 there has been a sharp decline in people going back. The main reasons given for people returning is better security and services and rebuilt housing. The lack of all those along with fear of persecution because of their association with the Islamic State are why people do not make the trip.

The main provinces that are receiving people are Ninewa with 1,677,912 returns total, Anbar with 1,305,456 returns, Salahaddin with 635,394, Kirkuk with 330,882, Diyala with 225,474, and Baghdad with 87,432. From May to June Ninewa with 17,502 and Salahaddin with 14,778 had the most people going home. IDPs are going back to nearly all the postwar areas of Iraq. Areas that were liberated first have seen the largest percentage of returns, but even now Ninewa, which was one of the last places to be freed have seen sizeable numbers of returnees. 

Total Number of Displaced Oct 2017-Dec 2018

Month	Total Displaced	Difference
October 2017	3,174,678
November 2017	2,883,738	-290,940
December 2017	2,615,988	-267,750
February 2018	2,317,698	-298,290 (2 months)
March 2018	2,205,252	-112,446
May 2018	2,045,718	-159,534 (2 months)
Jul 2018	1,953,984	-91,734 (2 months)
August 2018	1,920,456	-33,528
October 2018	1,866,648	-53,808 (2 months)
December 2018	1,802,832	-63,816 (2 months)
February 2019	1,744,980	-57,852 (2 months)
April 2019	1,665,108	-79,872 (2 months)
June 2019	1,607,148	-57,960 (2 months)

Avg 67,763 returns per month 2018

Avg 32,614 returns per month 2019

Main Provinces With Returns

Province	Apr 2019	Jun 2019	Difference
Ninewa	1,660,410	1,677,912	17,502
Anbar	1,303,320	1,305,456	2,136
Salahaddin	620,616	635,394	14,778
Kirkuk	329,622	330,882	1,260
Diyala	223,632	225,474	1,842
Baghdad	87,432	88,170	738

Surveys by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) the premier group working with Iraq’s IDP population found that 12% of those that have gone back to their homes are living in severe conditions. That includes 1,564 locations and 514,644 people. That was up 42,294 people from a few months before. The biggest increase happened in Baghdad with 8,136 people and Anbar with 72,456. Ninewa with 177,408 people and Salahaddin with 185,502 had the most people in bad situations. In Ninewa there were eleven such districts including Sinjar, Tal Afar, Zummar, Hammam al-Aleel and Baaj. Salahaddin had eight areas including Amerli, Suleiman Beq, Baiji, Samara, Shirqat, Tikrit and Tuz Kharmato which was the worst area in the entire country. Anbar had five areas including Qaim, Rutba and Garma. Diyala had three areas Muqtadiya, Jalawla, and Sadiya. Kirkuk had two Riyad and Abasi. Baghdad had three including Latifiya. The IOM labeled these areas severe because of the lack of jobs, services and reconciliation, poor security, and destroyed homes. Around half of these areas have gotten worse since the last time IOM surveyed them. The deteriorating situation is due to the fact that the government has no policy for any of these issues. It has no real support for the displaced, along with no rebuilding or reconciliation policies. That leaves NGOs like IOM, the United Nations, and local governments to fend for themselves, a task they obviously do not have the resources to adequately handle.

Displaced By Province

Province	Apr 2019
Ninewa	478,638
Dohuk	326,106
Irbil	209,784
Sulaymaniya	142,422
Salahaddin	105,390
Kirkuk	101,556
Baghdad	58,710
Diyala	55,722
Anbar	49,086
Karbala	21,744
Babil	17,454
Najaf	12,282
Wasit	8,538
Basra	7,164
Qadisiya	5,592
Dhi Qar	3,474
Maysan	2,388
Muthanna	1,098

SOURCES

International Organization for Migration, “Displacement Tracking Matrix DTM Round 110,” July 2019

- “Return Index, Findings Round Four – Iraq,” July 2019