Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Oil Market Cools Causing 5 Month Decline In Iraq’s Revenues  


Iraq was more than happy when Russia invaded Ukraine because it set off a bubble in the oil market. That is now ending and Iraq’s revenues are declining as a result.

 

In November 2022 Iraq exported an average of 3.329 million barrels a day of oil. That was down from October’s 3.382 million but within the range for the year which has fluctuated between 3.2-3.3 million barrels. This is despite OPEC+ production quotas loosening for the country. Iraq simply lacks the capacity to export much more currently because of its inadequate and aging infrastructure.

 

Iraqi crude went for $82.41 per barrel. In May, Iraq hit an annual high of $111.79 per barrel and prices have dropped every month since then. This is a result of the international energy market cooling off since the invasion of Ukraine.

 

The decline in prices resulted in Iraq making $8.23 billion in November. That was the lowest monthly total for the year. Baghdad can expect to the market to continue to correct itself in the coming months.

 

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2020-2022

Month

Avg Export (Mil)

Avg Price

Earnings (Bil)

Jan 2020

3.306

$60.14

$6.163

Feb

3.391

$51.37

$5.053

Mar

3.391

$32.73

$2.962

Apr

3.438

$13.80

$1.51

May

3.212

$21.00

$2.136

Jun

2.816

$33.86

$2.871

Jul

2.763

$40.70

$3.492

Aug

2.597

$43.69

$3.492

Sep

2.613

$40.40

$3.173

Oct

2.876

$38.48

$3.457

Nov

2.709

$41.77

$3.404

Dec

2.846

$47.76

$4.235

2020 Avg

2.996

$38.80

$3.493

Jan 2021

2.868

$53.29

$4.765

Feb

2.96

$60.33

$5.013

Mar

2.946

$63.32

$5.787

Apr

2.947

$62.77

$5.549

May

2.899

$65.84

$5.917

Jun

2.892

$70.77

$6.143

Jul

2.918

$72.00

$6.476

Aug

3.054

$69.01

$6.553

Sep

3.081

$73.32

$6.777

Oct

3.12

$79.27

$7.666

Nov

3.272

$77.33

$7.611

Dec

3.277

$72.80

$7.391

2021 Avg

3.019

$68.33

$6.303

Jan 2022

3.203

$83.82

$8.323

Feb

3.314

$92.08

$8.544

Mar

3.244

$110.09

$10.913

Apr

3.38

$104.09

$10.554

May

3.3

$111.79

$11.44

Jun

3.373

$113.70

$11.505

Jul

3.303

$103.60

$10.608

Aug

3.286

$96.05

$9.784

Sep

3.292

$89.56

$8.845

Oct

3.382

$88.31

$9.258

Nov

3.329

$82.41

$8.23

 

SOURCES

 

Reuters, “Iraq’s oil exports at 3.329 mln bpd in November, ministry says,” 12/1/22

 

Xinhua, “Iraq exports over 99 mln barrels of crude oil in Nov.,” 12/1/22

 

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