The International Organization for Migration (IOM) recently released a report on Iraq’s internally displaced and the process of returns in January 2009. The IOM found that while the number of people going back to their homes is increasing, many have found them destroyed and the process of rebuilding difficult. At the same time the majority of Iraq’s internal refugees are still facing hardships, especially with housing, employment, access to services, and aid.
There are approximately 1.6 million internally displaced Iraqis. The number of those going back to their homes is growing, especially in Baghdad, which saw the most fighting and displacement during the sectarian war of 2006-2007. Some want to go back but lack the means. Many returnees have found their homes destroyed. The government has encouraged this process by offering 500,000 dinars, around $432 to families that go home to a different province, and 250,000 dinars to those that return with their own province. The offers were made from October to December 2008, but the IOM is not sure whether they will still be available in 2009. Not all refugees have received the money either. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also issued Order 101 that requires all squatters to vacate their current residences. The security forces have carried out some evictions, but they have been very limited. The squatters have been given between 24 hours to several days to leave, and some have received aid from Baghdad, while others have not.
The IOM reported families going home in Anbar, Baghdad, and Diyala, and departing from Karbala, Sulaymaniya, and Wasit. More than 170 families left Karbala to go back to Baghdad from November to December 2008, 14 families left Sulaymaniyah, and an unknown number departed from Wasit. Almost all the displaced families from the Al Tooaitha Al Gharbia village in Baghdad have come back. Many said they returned because of the improved security, and the government’s offer of money. Families from several different provinces have gone back to Anbar. Things have not gone well for all of these families. In the Abu Ghraib district of Baghdad a returning family was hit by an IED. Locals have created their own security force in response. Many in the capital have found their homes destroyed, and there are over 400 families waiting for the government aid promised to them. In Diyala some families have been threatened after they went back.
The vast majority of Iraqi refugees have not returned, and are facing continued difficulties in the country. The IOM recorded several instances where families did not want to go back to their homes. In Diyala, Ninewa, and Wasit, Iraqis said they would not return. 13 families from Muqdadiya now living in the al-Kahlis district of Diyala, 25 families from Talafar who fled to Mosul, and several families in Wasit said their original neighborhoods lacked security. Salahaddin has ordered all displaced families from Diyala to leave because security is better there, but it has not been enforced. Finding adequate housing was another major issue. The IOM found 233 families living in mud huts in Babil, Tamim, Maysan, Muthanna, and Qadisiyah. Displaced in Basra, Karbala, Tamim, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf were also facing evictions for squatting, while in Qadisiyah, four families were kicked out of the Afaq district. Najaf has the largest internal refugee camp in the country, but the provincial government wants it closed. They have offered $3,467 to leave, and around 70 families have taken up the offer. Lack of services was the other major issue amongst Iraq’s displaced. 163 families in Anbar, Babil, and Dohuk lack access to food or their government rations. 274 families in Babil, Karbala, and Dhi Qar lack water. Health care, sewage systems, schooling, and jobs are other problems the displaced face.
Overall, the International Organization for Migration noted that Iraqis are slowly and increasingly returning to their homes, but that this is only a small percentage, and their experiences are uneven. Most are going back to Baghdad, followed by Anbar and Diyala. Some families have been threatened and attacked in the process, but that appears to be a small number. The majority are still displaced however, facing a wide variety of difficulties. The government has also been uneven in applying its refugee policy. While it is important that some Iraqis have decided that it is safe enough to go back to their homes, the others still need assistance, which has been largely lacking. Baghdad also requires a real return policy, rather one that seems largely aimed at improving its image rather than actually helping people.
Statistics On Iraq’s Internally Displaced
Origin of:
Baghdad 63.9%
Ninewa 5.7%
Salahaddin 3.1%
Tamim 2.9%
Anbar 2.6%
Basra 1.7%
Babil 0.9%
Wasit 0.2%
Irbil 0.2%
Dhi Qar 0.1%
Sect/Ethnicity:
Shiite Arab 57.7%
Sunni Arab 30.7%
Sunni Kurd 3.7%
Assyrian Christian 2.8%
Chaldean Christian 1.7%
Shiite Turkomen 1.1%
Sunni Turkomen 0.9%
Shiite Kurd 0.6%
Armenian Christian 0.1%
Yazidi Arab 0.1%
Yazidi Kurd 0.1%
Access to property left behind:
Don’t know 38.7%
No 41.8%
Yes 16.7%
If don’t have access, main reason why:
Occupied by another family 35.4%
Destroyed 22.1%
Security 8.6%
Used by military 2.5%
Occupied by government 0.5%
For more recent reports on Iraq’s displaced and refugees see:
United States Commission on International Religious Freedom Dec. 08 Report on Iraq
International Organization for Migration’s Report On Displaced In Kurdistan
Human Rights First Report On What To Do About Iraq’s Refugees
International Organization for Migration Report on Internally Displaced In Tamim, Ninewa and Salahaddin
International Organization for Migration’s Year End Report On Displaced Iraqis In Anbar, Baghdad & Diyala Provinces
International Organization for Migration’s Numbers On Refugee Returns
United Nations Humanitarian Report On Iraq
Government Moves Against Squatters In Hurriyah, Baghdad
International Organization for Migration’s November Report on Iraq’s Displaced
Refugees International Report On What Needs To Be Done About Iraq’s Displaced
SOURCES
International Organization for Migration, “Summary of Current Iraqi Displacement and Return,” 1/1/09
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Iraq Revises Down Budget Once Again
Iraq has again cut its planned 2009 budget. This is at least the third time it has been revised. Originally, the budget was set at $78.8 billion, the largest in the country’s history, and a 13% increase from the 2008 budget. Now it is estimated to be at $53.7 billion, a $25.1 billion reduction. The new budget is based upon a $50 a barrel price of oil. The original one was based upon $80 a barrel. Oil accounts for over 90% of Iraq’s revenue as there are few taxes or tariffs. Baghdad is hoping for a rebound in world crude prices, but the world economic slowdown could go into 2010 meaning continuing low prices, and a drag on Iraq’s revenues. In mid-January for example, a barrel dropped to $34 before going up to $44. This compares to the highest price of $147 during the summer of 2008.
There appears to be little relief in the near future. The government says they have $32 billion in the Central Bank from money not spent in previous budgets to cover some of the difference. Officials have been calling for a boost in oil exports to help alleviate the issue. The problem is Iraq has no flexibility in its petroleum production. Output has gone up and down. Despite government hopes to boost exports to 2 million barrels a day in 2009, the World Bank doubts that will happen because the infrastructure is so old and run down.
To deal with this crisis the Ministry of Finance says that the government will have to have massive budget cuts, and even then will still run a deficit. They will hold off on buying new cars, equipment, hiring, and benefits. There is also a push to cut wages, which were increased in 2008, but the Deputy Minister of Finance Dr. Fazil Nabi said they are trying to put that off. More importantly, Baghdad will cut its reconstruction budget 40% from $21 billion to $12.54 billion. This has already had concrete effects as the Ministry of Displacement and Migration announced in early January 2009 that they will postpone building housing projects and integrated living areas for Iraq’s displaced. There is also pressure to cut the nation’s food rations program by relegating it only to the poor. The Kurdistan Regional Government has also cut its budget 20%. The Planning Ministry announced a 50% cut for the provinces overall. Even with these reductions, Iraq might still run a $19 billion deficit.
These budget problems come at a time when U.S. development aid is coming to an end, and Iraq’s economy is full of trouble. In September 2008, the U.S. appropriated its last large reconstruction package for Iraq. After that money is spent Iraq will be largely responsible for its own development. As reported before, oil is the only thing keeping Iraq’s economy afloat. The rest of the country’s industries are suffering from cheap imports, little to no protection, a lack of credit and banks, fuel and electricity shortages, and security issues that have put many out of business, increased costs for the rest, and led to high unemployment and underemployment. It hasn’t helped that many of the large U.S. and Iraqi projects have not trickled down to the average Iraqi who still faces high rates of poverty as well. Government jobs and food rations are some of the few things that actually provide relief to people, and both of those are now under pressure due to the budget deficit. There is little that can be done but to ride out the storm as Iraq is more dependent upon oil than its Arab neighbors, and there’s little hope for a rebound in the rest of the economy in the short to mid-term.
SOURCES
Abbas, Mohammed and Ibrahim, Waleed, “Iraq fears budget crisis, urges oil export boost,” Reuters, 12/3/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Austerity could save 20 trillion dinars for 2009 budget – expert,” 12/9/08
- “KRG cuts ministries’ operational costs by 20%,” 1/1/09
- “No decrease in salaries because of oil prices – planning minister” 12/19/08
Chon, Gina, “As Crude Falls, Iraqi Leaders Scramble to Plan Budget,” Wall Street Journal, 10/22/08
IRIN, “IRAQ: Budget cuts threaten IDP housing projects,” 1/6/09
- “IRAQ: Iraqis want free food programme to continue, finds survey,” 1/4/09
Karouny, Mariam, “Iraq reviews 2009 budget due to falling oil price,” Reuters, 10/23/08
Mawloodi, Aiyob, “Iraqi government sharply cuts its expenditures,” Kurdish Globe, 1/22/09
Reid, Robert, “AP: Iraq forced to cut spending as oil price falls,” Associated Press, 1/22/09
Reuters, “Basra Oil Exports Nearly Double to 1.03m Bpd After Earlier Drop,” 12/30/08
- “Iraq earns $60 billion from 2008 crude exports,” 1/5/09
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08
There appears to be little relief in the near future. The government says they have $32 billion in the Central Bank from money not spent in previous budgets to cover some of the difference. Officials have been calling for a boost in oil exports to help alleviate the issue. The problem is Iraq has no flexibility in its petroleum production. Output has gone up and down. Despite government hopes to boost exports to 2 million barrels a day in 2009, the World Bank doubts that will happen because the infrastructure is so old and run down.
To deal with this crisis the Ministry of Finance says that the government will have to have massive budget cuts, and even then will still run a deficit. They will hold off on buying new cars, equipment, hiring, and benefits. There is also a push to cut wages, which were increased in 2008, but the Deputy Minister of Finance Dr. Fazil Nabi said they are trying to put that off. More importantly, Baghdad will cut its reconstruction budget 40% from $21 billion to $12.54 billion. This has already had concrete effects as the Ministry of Displacement and Migration announced in early January 2009 that they will postpone building housing projects and integrated living areas for Iraq’s displaced. There is also pressure to cut the nation’s food rations program by relegating it only to the poor. The Kurdistan Regional Government has also cut its budget 20%. The Planning Ministry announced a 50% cut for the provinces overall. Even with these reductions, Iraq might still run a $19 billion deficit.
These budget problems come at a time when U.S. development aid is coming to an end, and Iraq’s economy is full of trouble. In September 2008, the U.S. appropriated its last large reconstruction package for Iraq. After that money is spent Iraq will be largely responsible for its own development. As reported before, oil is the only thing keeping Iraq’s economy afloat. The rest of the country’s industries are suffering from cheap imports, little to no protection, a lack of credit and banks, fuel and electricity shortages, and security issues that have put many out of business, increased costs for the rest, and led to high unemployment and underemployment. It hasn’t helped that many of the large U.S. and Iraqi projects have not trickled down to the average Iraqi who still faces high rates of poverty as well. Government jobs and food rations are some of the few things that actually provide relief to people, and both of those are now under pressure due to the budget deficit. There is little that can be done but to ride out the storm as Iraq is more dependent upon oil than its Arab neighbors, and there’s little hope for a rebound in the rest of the economy in the short to mid-term.
SOURCES
Abbas, Mohammed and Ibrahim, Waleed, “Iraq fears budget crisis, urges oil export boost,” Reuters, 12/3/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Austerity could save 20 trillion dinars for 2009 budget – expert,” 12/9/08
- “KRG cuts ministries’ operational costs by 20%,” 1/1/09
- “No decrease in salaries because of oil prices – planning minister” 12/19/08
Chon, Gina, “As Crude Falls, Iraqi Leaders Scramble to Plan Budget,” Wall Street Journal, 10/22/08
IRIN, “IRAQ: Budget cuts threaten IDP housing projects,” 1/6/09
- “IRAQ: Iraqis want free food programme to continue, finds survey,” 1/4/09
Karouny, Mariam, “Iraq reviews 2009 budget due to falling oil price,” Reuters, 10/23/08
Mawloodi, Aiyob, “Iraqi government sharply cuts its expenditures,” Kurdish Globe, 1/22/09
Reid, Robert, “AP: Iraq forced to cut spending as oil price falls,” Associated Press, 1/22/09
Reuters, “Basra Oil Exports Nearly Double to 1.03m Bpd After Earlier Drop,” 12/30/08
- “Iraq earns $60 billion from 2008 crude exports,” 1/5/09
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08
Monday, January 26, 2009
Iraqis Unwilling Or Incapable Of Maintaining U.S. Reconstruction Projects
On January 13, 2009 the Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) released an audit of a $1.2 billion contract to fix and rehabilitate oil and gas infrastructure in southern Iraq by the U.S. company KBR. Like previous reports, it found that costs went over budget, there was little oversight, and that while some improvements were made, overall, the projects’ potential was unfulfilled. What was most important for the future of the country however, was the finding that Iraq was either unwilling or incapable of maintaining many of these U.S. funded reconstruction projects.
Much of Iraq’s oil infrastructure is dated, and needs massive investment to continue production. The industry suffered years of sanctions, and then looting immediately after the invasion. SIGIR found major damage at several facilities costing millions of dollars from the theft and vandalism in 2003. KBR did improve the facilities it worked on, but the SIGIR thought that it might be futile because of the attitude of the Iraqi government. U.S. officials are worried about Baghdad’s commitment to reconstruction as it appears they don’t care about finishing some of the U.S. projects, maintaining them, or even using some.
For example, KBR worked on a $146.7 million project to improve gas plants in southern Iraq. It bought rotors for gas compressors at one, but didn’t have time to install them. They were left in a nearby warehouse when KBR was done, but the Iraqis have yet to install them. The plant is producing below benchmarks as a result, and SIGIR believes that the U.S. money was wasted because Baghdad doesn’t have plans to finish it.
Another case was in June 2004 when KBR was given a contract to fix the loading arms at Al Basra Oil Terminal. SIGIR found that the company ended its work early at the request of Baghdad in January 2005. In April 2006 a U.S. contractor told the state-run South Oil Company that they had to maintain the loading arms by oiling them, but the Iraqis never did. The contractor witnessed Iraqis using the rusted equipment in ways that might break the arms. KBR and other companies repeatedly told South Oil that they had to do preventive maintenance, but nothing was done. The government didn’t seem to want the project in the first place, and after the work was finished, showed little interest in keeping it up.
There have been similar reports before. In November 2008, Reuters reported on Al Qods, a new U.S.-funded power plant opening in Baghdad that cost $170 million and would service 180,000 households in central Iraq. Right next to Al-Qods was another energy facility that was abandoned by the Iraqis. The $20 million turbines in the plant broke because the Iraqis couldn’t operate them. The government may never repair them.
This is of major concern since the U.S. has spent billions on Iraq, but it is an open question about how much of it was effective. In total, the U.S. has spent almost $18 billion on reconstruction. On September 30, 2008 the last amount of money was appropriated. All the way back in 2005 however, the SIGIR warned that the Iraqi government was not ready to take over many of these projects, and had even rejected responsibility for some of them. The U.S. often turned over projects to the local government whether they wanted them or not. Sometimes the Americans had to continue to operate them because there was no one else willing to. Others remain idle and unfinished because of Iraqi neglect. Baghdad has also been unable to spend most of its capital budget that goes into infrastructure. The war has caused a brain drain of Iraqi professionals and skilled workers leaving the country, leading to a talent deficit to operate and fix facilities. Iraqis also seem to have created a culture of just getting by in industry after years of sanctions. That has led simple preventative measures such as oiling equipment to be ignored. That’s not to say that the U.S. has not contributed to Iraq’s rebuilding, but the amount that was wasted on large projects Iraqis either didn’t want or couldn’t maintain appears staggering.
For more on reconstruction and development see:
Maysan Province Remains Underdeveloped
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction’s Quarterly October Report
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction July Report’s Major Findings
Iraq Outspends U.S. on Reconstruction
SOURCES
Pincus, Walter, “Report Details Iraq Contract Failures,” Washington Post, 1/14/09
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi Official: Oil Infrastructure Needs Major Upgrade,” 1/15/09
Ryan, Missy and Qusay, Aws, “Iraqis Measure Progress with Flip of Switch,” Reuters, 11/14/08
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Cost, Outcome, and Oversight of Iraq Oil Reconstruction Contract with Kellogg Brown & Root Services, Inc.,” 1/13/09
- “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08
Much of Iraq’s oil infrastructure is dated, and needs massive investment to continue production. The industry suffered years of sanctions, and then looting immediately after the invasion. SIGIR found major damage at several facilities costing millions of dollars from the theft and vandalism in 2003. KBR did improve the facilities it worked on, but the SIGIR thought that it might be futile because of the attitude of the Iraqi government. U.S. officials are worried about Baghdad’s commitment to reconstruction as it appears they don’t care about finishing some of the U.S. projects, maintaining them, or even using some.
For example, KBR worked on a $146.7 million project to improve gas plants in southern Iraq. It bought rotors for gas compressors at one, but didn’t have time to install them. They were left in a nearby warehouse when KBR was done, but the Iraqis have yet to install them. The plant is producing below benchmarks as a result, and SIGIR believes that the U.S. money was wasted because Baghdad doesn’t have plans to finish it.
Another case was in June 2004 when KBR was given a contract to fix the loading arms at Al Basra Oil Terminal. SIGIR found that the company ended its work early at the request of Baghdad in January 2005. In April 2006 a U.S. contractor told the state-run South Oil Company that they had to maintain the loading arms by oiling them, but the Iraqis never did. The contractor witnessed Iraqis using the rusted equipment in ways that might break the arms. KBR and other companies repeatedly told South Oil that they had to do preventive maintenance, but nothing was done. The government didn’t seem to want the project in the first place, and after the work was finished, showed little interest in keeping it up.
There have been similar reports before. In November 2008, Reuters reported on Al Qods, a new U.S.-funded power plant opening in Baghdad that cost $170 million and would service 180,000 households in central Iraq. Right next to Al-Qods was another energy facility that was abandoned by the Iraqis. The $20 million turbines in the plant broke because the Iraqis couldn’t operate them. The government may never repair them.
This is of major concern since the U.S. has spent billions on Iraq, but it is an open question about how much of it was effective. In total, the U.S. has spent almost $18 billion on reconstruction. On September 30, 2008 the last amount of money was appropriated. All the way back in 2005 however, the SIGIR warned that the Iraqi government was not ready to take over many of these projects, and had even rejected responsibility for some of them. The U.S. often turned over projects to the local government whether they wanted them or not. Sometimes the Americans had to continue to operate them because there was no one else willing to. Others remain idle and unfinished because of Iraqi neglect. Baghdad has also been unable to spend most of its capital budget that goes into infrastructure. The war has caused a brain drain of Iraqi professionals and skilled workers leaving the country, leading to a talent deficit to operate and fix facilities. Iraqis also seem to have created a culture of just getting by in industry after years of sanctions. That has led simple preventative measures such as oiling equipment to be ignored. That’s not to say that the U.S. has not contributed to Iraq’s rebuilding, but the amount that was wasted on large projects Iraqis either didn’t want or couldn’t maintain appears staggering.
For more on reconstruction and development see:
Maysan Province Remains Underdeveloped
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction’s Quarterly October Report
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction July Report’s Major Findings
Iraq Outspends U.S. on Reconstruction
SOURCES
Pincus, Walter, “Report Details Iraq Contract Failures,” Washington Post, 1/14/09
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi Official: Oil Infrastructure Needs Major Upgrade,” 1/15/09
Ryan, Missy and Qusay, Aws, “Iraqis Measure Progress with Flip of Switch,” Reuters, 11/14/08
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Cost, Outcome, and Oversight of Iraq Oil Reconstruction Contract with Kellogg Brown & Root Services, Inc.,” 1/13/09
- “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Sadrists Announce Parties They Support For Provincial Elections
As the January provincial elections near the Sadrists have announced that they support two lists of independents. A spokesman said that the Sadrist Trend stands by the Blameless and Reconstruction List, No. 376, and the Independent Trend of the Noble Ones, No. 284. Both parties appear in the south, while the Independent Trend is also running in Ninewa and Diyala. The Resalyoon bloc that participated in the 2005 elections, although not officially part of the movement, is also loyal to Sadr, with its leader re-affirming his allegiance in December 2008. They are running in Maysan, Najaf, Babil, and Diyala. Some from the Sadr Trend have also gone to former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s National Reform Party. In June 2008, Jaafari broke away from the Dawa Party and formed his own. There is also the Fadhila Party formed by Mohammed al-Yacoubi in July 2003 who claimed he should take over from Sadeq al-Sadr, Moqtada’s father, after the U.S. invasion. Fadhila is largely based in Basra. The Sadr al-Iraq party in that province might also be pro-Sadr.
The Sadrists are not running on their own as a result of the crackdown Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched against them in 2008. In April Maliki said that Sadr had to disband the Mahdi Army or they would be barred from politics, while the Political Council for National Security warned they would not be able to participate in the elections if the movement didn’t disarm. The Iraqi cabinet went on to draft a law to ban political parties that had their own militias from the provincial voting. As a result, Sadr announced that he was breaking up his militia in June, and forming a new social, religious and educational group called Momahidoun, Those Who Pave The Way, in August. During this time, Sadr also said that his followers would not run as a party in the upcoming elections, but would support independents instead.
Up until now, the movement has been largely silent on their exact position with regards to the vote. Recently however, Sadr spokesmen have begun stressing that they need to do well in the election to show the strength of their movement after the government’s offensives against them. One said they expect to maintain control of Maysan, and hope to win up to one-third of the seats in the nine southern provinces. They are hoping that will not allow the Supreme Council and the Dawa to monopolize power. If they have a poor showing, especially in Maysan, it would be a major setback. They are preparing for that possibility, by complaining that the major Shiite parties are trying to keep them out of the vote through their control of government agencies and the security forces.
As reported before, the Sadr movement is in disarray. The Surge and Maliki’s moves have cost Sadr thousands of fighters and commanders. His movement is still under pressure as government forces arrested the Baghdad head of the Momahidoun in December 2008. Tehran has peeled off large numbers of his militia into Special Groups. His control of violence was always one key to his power, but now that is gone. Sadr doesn’t have any say in political decisions either as he withdrew his ministers in 2007, while his parliamentarians are part of the divided opposition. With the sectarian war over there is no need for Shiites to turn to them for protection, and some have grown resentful of their criminal activities, leading to a lessoning of popular support. Rival parties now consider his followers up for grabs. Sadr himself has been off in Iran undergoing religious training for over a year and does not have day-to-day control of his movement. This has caused increasing divisions within the Sadrists that have led to the assassinations of two moderates in 2008. The Prime Minister has also been able to appropriate many of Sadr’s political stances having successfully passed the Status of Forces Agreement which sets a timetable for a U.S. withdrawal, championed Iraqi nationalism, and Baghdad’s authority over the country.
Moqtada al-Sadr has increasingly lost control of his own movement, and has tried over and over to re-organize it and re-claim his leadership. U.S. and government crackdowns along with the lessening need for Mahdi Army protection and anger against them have also cost them followers. The 2009 elections are definitely going to be a bell weather moment for them, especially if they do poorly. If nothing else though, Moqtada al-Sadr has proven to be a survivor, so one could expect him to still be on the Iraqi scene after the ballots are cast.
SOURCES
Associated Press, “Al-Sadr’s Followers Eye Comeback in Jan. 31 Vote,” 1/20/09
- “Iraqi Cabinet approves measure barring parties with militias from elections,” 4/13/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Resalyoon chief says quit bloc,” 12/25/08
- “Sadrists assert attempts to remove them from elections,” 1/22/09
Cochrane, Marisa, “The Fragmentation of the Sadrist Movement,” Institute for the Study of War, January 2009
Dagher, Sam, “Gunmen Kill Iraqi Cleric Campaigning for Council,” New York Times, 1/17/09
Graff, Peter, “Influence wanes for followers of Iraq’s Sadr,” Reuters, 11/24/08
Middle East Online, “Maliki threatens to Bar Sadr party from politics,” 4/7/08
Mohsen, Amer, “Iraq Papers Mon: Australian Troops to Depart,” IraqSlogger.com, 6/1/08
Paley, Amit, “Aides to Sadr Refine Stance On Elections,” Washington Post, 6/16/08
Parker, Ned and Hameed, Saif, “Iraq releases detained security officers,” Los Angeles Times, 12/20/08
Peter, Tom, “After setbacks, Sadr redirects Mahdi Army,” Christian Science Monitor, 8/11/08
Raghavan, Sudarsan, “Sadr Movement Seeks Is Way As Others Gain Power in Iraq,” Washington Post, 12/5/08
Shadid, Anthony, “Despite Discontent and Fragmentation, Islamic Parties Dominate,” Washington Post, 1/19/09
Visser, Reidar, “The Candidate Lists Are Out: Basra More Fragmented, Sadrists Pursuing Several Strategies?,” Historiae.org, 12/22/08
- “The Sadrist Parliamentary Bloc Confirms Its Support of Two Electoral Lists,” Historiae.org, 1/11/09
Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Iraq’s Sadr plans new armed group to fight US forces,” Agence France Presse, 6/13/08
The Sadrists are not running on their own as a result of the crackdown Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched against them in 2008. In April Maliki said that Sadr had to disband the Mahdi Army or they would be barred from politics, while the Political Council for National Security warned they would not be able to participate in the elections if the movement didn’t disarm. The Iraqi cabinet went on to draft a law to ban political parties that had their own militias from the provincial voting. As a result, Sadr announced that he was breaking up his militia in June, and forming a new social, religious and educational group called Momahidoun, Those Who Pave The Way, in August. During this time, Sadr also said that his followers would not run as a party in the upcoming elections, but would support independents instead.
Up until now, the movement has been largely silent on their exact position with regards to the vote. Recently however, Sadr spokesmen have begun stressing that they need to do well in the election to show the strength of their movement after the government’s offensives against them. One said they expect to maintain control of Maysan, and hope to win up to one-third of the seats in the nine southern provinces. They are hoping that will not allow the Supreme Council and the Dawa to monopolize power. If they have a poor showing, especially in Maysan, it would be a major setback. They are preparing for that possibility, by complaining that the major Shiite parties are trying to keep them out of the vote through their control of government agencies and the security forces.
As reported before, the Sadr movement is in disarray. The Surge and Maliki’s moves have cost Sadr thousands of fighters and commanders. His movement is still under pressure as government forces arrested the Baghdad head of the Momahidoun in December 2008. Tehran has peeled off large numbers of his militia into Special Groups. His control of violence was always one key to his power, but now that is gone. Sadr doesn’t have any say in political decisions either as he withdrew his ministers in 2007, while his parliamentarians are part of the divided opposition. With the sectarian war over there is no need for Shiites to turn to them for protection, and some have grown resentful of their criminal activities, leading to a lessoning of popular support. Rival parties now consider his followers up for grabs. Sadr himself has been off in Iran undergoing religious training for over a year and does not have day-to-day control of his movement. This has caused increasing divisions within the Sadrists that have led to the assassinations of two moderates in 2008. The Prime Minister has also been able to appropriate many of Sadr’s political stances having successfully passed the Status of Forces Agreement which sets a timetable for a U.S. withdrawal, championed Iraqi nationalism, and Baghdad’s authority over the country.
Moqtada al-Sadr has increasingly lost control of his own movement, and has tried over and over to re-organize it and re-claim his leadership. U.S. and government crackdowns along with the lessening need for Mahdi Army protection and anger against them have also cost them followers. The 2009 elections are definitely going to be a bell weather moment for them, especially if they do poorly. If nothing else though, Moqtada al-Sadr has proven to be a survivor, so one could expect him to still be on the Iraqi scene after the ballots are cast.
SOURCES
Associated Press, “Al-Sadr’s Followers Eye Comeback in Jan. 31 Vote,” 1/20/09
- “Iraqi Cabinet approves measure barring parties with militias from elections,” 4/13/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Resalyoon chief says quit bloc,” 12/25/08
- “Sadrists assert attempts to remove them from elections,” 1/22/09
Cochrane, Marisa, “The Fragmentation of the Sadrist Movement,” Institute for the Study of War, January 2009
Dagher, Sam, “Gunmen Kill Iraqi Cleric Campaigning for Council,” New York Times, 1/17/09
Graff, Peter, “Influence wanes for followers of Iraq’s Sadr,” Reuters, 11/24/08
Middle East Online, “Maliki threatens to Bar Sadr party from politics,” 4/7/08
Mohsen, Amer, “Iraq Papers Mon: Australian Troops to Depart,” IraqSlogger.com, 6/1/08
Paley, Amit, “Aides to Sadr Refine Stance On Elections,” Washington Post, 6/16/08
Parker, Ned and Hameed, Saif, “Iraq releases detained security officers,” Los Angeles Times, 12/20/08
Peter, Tom, “After setbacks, Sadr redirects Mahdi Army,” Christian Science Monitor, 8/11/08
Raghavan, Sudarsan, “Sadr Movement Seeks Is Way As Others Gain Power in Iraq,” Washington Post, 12/5/08
Shadid, Anthony, “Despite Discontent and Fragmentation, Islamic Parties Dominate,” Washington Post, 1/19/09
Visser, Reidar, “The Candidate Lists Are Out: Basra More Fragmented, Sadrists Pursuing Several Strategies?,” Historiae.org, 12/22/08
- “The Sadrist Parliamentary Bloc Confirms Its Support of Two Electoral Lists,” Historiae.org, 1/11/09
Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Iraq’s Sadr plans new armed group to fight US forces,” Agence France Presse, 6/13/08
Saturday, January 24, 2009
New Iraqi Opinion Poll On Preferences And Federalism Before Provincial Elections
The government run National Media Center (NMC) released another public opinion poll recently, this time asking 4,500 Iraqis on their preference for parties and their views on federalism. The results closely follow an October 2008 survey conducted by the Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies reported on before. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his State of Law Coalition got the most responses, while there was little support for federal regions outside of Kurdistan.
Prime Minister Maliki has fashioned himself into the most popular Iraqi politician, however two former leaders of Iraq closely follow him. The NMC questionnaire found Prime Minister Maliki’s Coalition of the State of Law had the most support at 23%, followed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List 12.6%, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) 11.4%, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s National Reform Party 11.3%, the Iraqi Accordance Front 4.5%, and the Iraqi National Dialogue Front 3.6%. When asked whom they wanted as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki came in first at 23%, Allawi was second 17.7%, and Jaafari third 10%. It’s been widely reported that Maliki is popular with the Iraqi public because of his offensives against the Sadrists in Basra, Sadr City and Maysan along with his increasing use of nationalism. Allawi’s and Jaafari parties however, have hardly been mentioned in the English language reporting on Iraq. Allawi was the interim prime minister after the Coalition Provisional Authority returned sovereignty to Iraq in 2004. His Iraqi National List is a secular and nationalist one. Other Iraqi polls have found growing support for just such parties. Jaafari was the Prime Minister after the 2005 elections. He was originally one of the leaders of the Dawa party, but was replaced by Maliki in 2007 after coming under increasing criticism for the country’s decent into sectarian war in 2006. In June 2008 he announced that he was leaving Dawa to form the National Reform Party made up of his wing of the Dawa, independent Shiites, and some Sadrists. Jaafari has been working with the loosely organized opposition since then consisting of the Sadr Bloc, the Fadhila Party, the National Dialogue Front, and Allawi’s Iraqi National List.
The second half of the National Media Center poll asked Iraqis about their views on federalism. 72% rejected the idea. As would be expected, 78% of Kurds supported it as they have the Kurdistan Regional Government. 80% were opposed to the partition of the country, 80% were against autonomy for Basra, while 94% of those surveyed within Basra were against turning it into a federal region.
These results were very similar to an October 2008 survey conducted by the Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies. In that poll Maliki again was the most popular politician at 17.2%, followed by Allawi 16.7%, and Jaafari 7.9%. When asked what political party they would vote for Maliki’s Dawa Party came out on top 14.7%, and the Iraqi National List was second 13.3%. Don’t know 8.5% and no answer 7.4% were the next results, followed by the two Kurdish parties, and then Jaafari’s at 4.3%. Likewise, there were few in favor of federalism with 69.9% saying they wanted a strong central government, with only 17.7% saying they would prefer more power in the provinces. 70.0% said they were against forming another regional government outside of Kurdistan.
It should be noted that while these two polls show a realignment in preferences, and the collapse of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance, they are both national polls. They may not transfer directly to the provincial elections where parties need organization and money to launch campaigns across the governorates to gain enough votes to win seats on the provincial councils. While its often been repeated that over 14,000 candidates are running in the upcoming election, few of these newcomers can compete with the Supreme Council’s two satellite TV channels, dozens of local channels and newspapers, five women’s organization, three student groups, and over 1,000 offices in the south. Maliki has shored up his popularity by forming Tribal Support Councils across Iraq. Allawi and Jaafari may not have the resources to match these two. What they do have going for them is the rising popularity of secularism and nationalism, and resentment against the poor governing by the ruling parties. How things turn out will soon be known when voting begins at the end of January.
Below are the results of the National Media Center and Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies polls.
National Media Center January 2009 Poll
What party would you vote for?
State of Law Coalition 23%
Iraqi National List 12.6%
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 11.4%
National Reform Party 11.3%
Iraqi Accordance Front 4.5%
Iraqi National Dialogue Front 3.6%
Who would be the best prime minister?
Nouri al-Maliki 23%
Iyad Allawi 17.7%
Ibrahim al-Jaafari 10%
Ideas on federalism
Opposed 72%
Kurds in favor of 78%
Opposed to partition of country 80%
Opposed to autonomy for Basra 80%
Basrans opposed to autonomy for the province 94%
Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies October 2008 Poll
Which one of the following person could make the most positive change in country?
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki 17.2%
Former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi 16.7%
None 13.2%
Former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari7.9%
President of Kurdish Regional Government Masooud Barzani 6.3%
President Jalal Talabani 4.3%
Don’t know 4.2%
Moqtada al-Sadr 3.8%
Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi 3.6%
Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi 3.6%
Iraqi National Dialogue Front head Saleh al-Mutlaq 2.9%
Head of Anbar Awakening Council Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha 2.2%
Deputy Prime Minister Barhem Salih 1.9%
Prime Minister of Kurdish Regional Government Neachirevan Barzani 0.9%
Kusart Ali 0.7%
Ummah Iraqi Party Mithal al-Alusi 0.7%
Assyrian Democratic Movement Younadim Kanah 0.5%
Iraqi National Congress Ahmed al-Chalabi 0.5%
Iraqi National List Ayad Jamal al-Deen 0.5%
General Council for the People of Iraq Adnan al-Dulaimi 0.4%
Iraqi National Dialogue Council Khalaf al-Ulayyan 0.4%
Association of Muslim Scholars Harith al-Dhari 0.4%
Former speaker of parliament Mahmoud al-Mashhadani 0.3%
Who will you vote for in next election?
None 17.9%
Dawa 14.7%
Iraqi National List 13.3%
Don’t know 8.5%
No answer 7.4%
Kurdistan Democratic Party 7.2%
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 6.4%
National Reform Party 4.3%
Sadr Movement 4.1%
Islamic Party of Iraq 3.4%
Ummah Iraqi Party 2.5%
Anbar Awakening Council 2.4%
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 2.4%
Iraqi National Dialogue Front 2.4%
Iraqi National Dialogue Council 0.9%
Islamic Dawa Party-Iraq 0.6%
Iraqi National Congress 0.4%
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraqi PM Calls for Strong Central Government,” 1/22/09
- “Iraqi PM’s Allies On Course To Win Provincial Elections – Poll,” 1/21/09
Associated Press, “Six parliamentary factions to coordinate efforts in Iraqi parliament, lawmakers say,” 6/8/08
Daniel, Trenton, “Iraqi candidates stumping for Jan. 31 provincial elections,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/23/09
Iraq Centre For Research & Strategic Studies, “Public Opinion Survey in Iraq; The Security & Political Situation in Iraq,” October 2008
Hardy, Roger, “Iraq conflict thwarts PM Jaafari,” BBC, 4/21/06
Mohsen, Amer, “Iraq Papers Mon: Australian Troops to Depart,” IraqSlogger.com, 6/1/08
Shadid, Anthony, “Despite Discontent and Fragmentation, Islamic Parties Dominate,” Washington Post, 1/19/09
Prime Minister Maliki has fashioned himself into the most popular Iraqi politician, however two former leaders of Iraq closely follow him. The NMC questionnaire found Prime Minister Maliki’s Coalition of the State of Law had the most support at 23%, followed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List 12.6%, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) 11.4%, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s National Reform Party 11.3%, the Iraqi Accordance Front 4.5%, and the Iraqi National Dialogue Front 3.6%. When asked whom they wanted as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki came in first at 23%, Allawi was second 17.7%, and Jaafari third 10%. It’s been widely reported that Maliki is popular with the Iraqi public because of his offensives against the Sadrists in Basra, Sadr City and Maysan along with his increasing use of nationalism. Allawi’s and Jaafari parties however, have hardly been mentioned in the English language reporting on Iraq. Allawi was the interim prime minister after the Coalition Provisional Authority returned sovereignty to Iraq in 2004. His Iraqi National List is a secular and nationalist one. Other Iraqi polls have found growing support for just such parties. Jaafari was the Prime Minister after the 2005 elections. He was originally one of the leaders of the Dawa party, but was replaced by Maliki in 2007 after coming under increasing criticism for the country’s decent into sectarian war in 2006. In June 2008 he announced that he was leaving Dawa to form the National Reform Party made up of his wing of the Dawa, independent Shiites, and some Sadrists. Jaafari has been working with the loosely organized opposition since then consisting of the Sadr Bloc, the Fadhila Party, the National Dialogue Front, and Allawi’s Iraqi National List.
The second half of the National Media Center poll asked Iraqis about their views on federalism. 72% rejected the idea. As would be expected, 78% of Kurds supported it as they have the Kurdistan Regional Government. 80% were opposed to the partition of the country, 80% were against autonomy for Basra, while 94% of those surveyed within Basra were against turning it into a federal region.
These results were very similar to an October 2008 survey conducted by the Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies. In that poll Maliki again was the most popular politician at 17.2%, followed by Allawi 16.7%, and Jaafari 7.9%. When asked what political party they would vote for Maliki’s Dawa Party came out on top 14.7%, and the Iraqi National List was second 13.3%. Don’t know 8.5% and no answer 7.4% were the next results, followed by the two Kurdish parties, and then Jaafari’s at 4.3%. Likewise, there were few in favor of federalism with 69.9% saying they wanted a strong central government, with only 17.7% saying they would prefer more power in the provinces. 70.0% said they were against forming another regional government outside of Kurdistan.
It should be noted that while these two polls show a realignment in preferences, and the collapse of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance, they are both national polls. They may not transfer directly to the provincial elections where parties need organization and money to launch campaigns across the governorates to gain enough votes to win seats on the provincial councils. While its often been repeated that over 14,000 candidates are running in the upcoming election, few of these newcomers can compete with the Supreme Council’s two satellite TV channels, dozens of local channels and newspapers, five women’s organization, three student groups, and over 1,000 offices in the south. Maliki has shored up his popularity by forming Tribal Support Councils across Iraq. Allawi and Jaafari may not have the resources to match these two. What they do have going for them is the rising popularity of secularism and nationalism, and resentment against the poor governing by the ruling parties. How things turn out will soon be known when voting begins at the end of January.
Below are the results of the National Media Center and Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies polls.
National Media Center January 2009 Poll
What party would you vote for?
State of Law Coalition 23%
Iraqi National List 12.6%
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 11.4%
National Reform Party 11.3%
Iraqi Accordance Front 4.5%
Iraqi National Dialogue Front 3.6%
Who would be the best prime minister?
Nouri al-Maliki 23%
Iyad Allawi 17.7%
Ibrahim al-Jaafari 10%
Ideas on federalism
Opposed 72%
Kurds in favor of 78%
Opposed to partition of country 80%
Opposed to autonomy for Basra 80%
Basrans opposed to autonomy for the province 94%
Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies October 2008 Poll
Which one of the following person could make the most positive change in country?
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki 17.2%
Former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi 16.7%
None 13.2%
Former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari7.9%
President of Kurdish Regional Government Masooud Barzani 6.3%
President Jalal Talabani 4.3%
Don’t know 4.2%
Moqtada al-Sadr 3.8%
Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi 3.6%
Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi 3.6%
Iraqi National Dialogue Front head Saleh al-Mutlaq 2.9%
Head of Anbar Awakening Council Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha 2.2%
Deputy Prime Minister Barhem Salih 1.9%
Prime Minister of Kurdish Regional Government Neachirevan Barzani 0.9%
Kusart Ali 0.7%
Ummah Iraqi Party Mithal al-Alusi 0.7%
Assyrian Democratic Movement Younadim Kanah 0.5%
Iraqi National Congress Ahmed al-Chalabi 0.5%
Iraqi National List Ayad Jamal al-Deen 0.5%
General Council for the People of Iraq Adnan al-Dulaimi 0.4%
Iraqi National Dialogue Council Khalaf al-Ulayyan 0.4%
Association of Muslim Scholars Harith al-Dhari 0.4%
Former speaker of parliament Mahmoud al-Mashhadani 0.3%
Who will you vote for in next election?
None 17.9%
Dawa 14.7%
Iraqi National List 13.3%
Don’t know 8.5%
No answer 7.4%
Kurdistan Democratic Party 7.2%
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 6.4%
National Reform Party 4.3%
Sadr Movement 4.1%
Islamic Party of Iraq 3.4%
Ummah Iraqi Party 2.5%
Anbar Awakening Council 2.4%
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 2.4%
Iraqi National Dialogue Front 2.4%
Iraqi National Dialogue Council 0.9%
Islamic Dawa Party-Iraq 0.6%
Iraqi National Congress 0.4%
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraqi PM Calls for Strong Central Government,” 1/22/09
- “Iraqi PM’s Allies On Course To Win Provincial Elections – Poll,” 1/21/09
Associated Press, “Six parliamentary factions to coordinate efforts in Iraqi parliament, lawmakers say,” 6/8/08
Daniel, Trenton, “Iraqi candidates stumping for Jan. 31 provincial elections,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/23/09
Iraq Centre For Research & Strategic Studies, “Public Opinion Survey in Iraq; The Security & Political Situation in Iraq,” October 2008
Hardy, Roger, “Iraq conflict thwarts PM Jaafari,” BBC, 4/21/06
Mohsen, Amer, “Iraq Papers Mon: Australian Troops to Depart,” IraqSlogger.com, 6/1/08
Shadid, Anthony, “Despite Discontent and Fragmentation, Islamic Parties Dominate,” Washington Post, 1/19/09
Friday, January 23, 2009
Basra Federal Region Plan Fails
On January 20 the Iraqi Election Commission announced that the supporters of a Basra federal region had failed to acquire the necessary signatures to hold a referendum on the issue. Independent member of parliament Wail Abd al-Latif and the Fadhila Party that currently rules Basra were behind the effort. In November 2008 they turned in a petition with 34,800 signatures, 2% of the province’s voting population, which was the first step necessary to hold a vote on making Basra an autonomous region. They then had one month to collect 135,707 signatures, 10% of Basra’s voting public to move forward with their plan. They came up with only 32,448, less than their original November amount. This was always a risky move as it came just before provincial elections at the end of January, and appears to be a major setback for the embattled Fadhila party.
The drive for a Basra federal region was an uphill battle from the beginning. A recent poll by the Iraqi government run National Media Center found that 94% of the residents of the province were opposed to the idea. Latif and Fadhila were never able to bring a large number of residents over to their side because their argument appeared to be contradictory, and had major opposition from many of Iraq’s ruling parties. Supporters said they were nationalists who wanted to stop the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) from forming a southern Shiite region and limit Iranian influence. Many believe that can best be done by strengthening the central government in Baghdad, rather than breaking Basra off. Federalists also criticized the Kurdistan Regional Government for signing their own oil deals, yet wanted some control of petroleum revenues themselves. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the SIIC, and the Iraqi Islamic Party were all against the plan as well. Ironically, the Kurdish Alliance was the only outside group to stand by the Basra plan. As a result, the supporters were always on the defensive. Wail Abd al-Latif and others often complained that the Election Commission was biased against their effort, and blamed the Prime Minister and the United Iraqi Alliance for working against them. All together this led for a disjointed campaign that failed to garner much public approval in the end.
That didn’t stop the Fadhila Party from pulling out the stops to gain signatures. According to The National, Fadhila members pressured government workers to go along with the plan. The paper interviewed several provincial employees who said they were intimidated into signing the petition. All said they did not make formal complaints about the moves because they were afraid the ruling Fadhila party would fire them, arrest them, or have militiamen go after them.
The Fadhila Party came out the biggest loser in this effort, but it has implications for the Supreme Council as well. Fadhila put their full weight behind the Basra plan, even trying to strong-arm government employees into supporting it. They are already under pressure for failing to provide services, jobs, and development in Basra, and this could be a further sign that they will lose seats, and probably control of the province in the upcoming elections. This was also the first real attempt to form an autonomous region outside of Kurdistan. The Supreme Council has aspired to create a nine province southern Shiite region. They haven’t talked about it for a while, but recently a member of the Hakim family said that the SIIC still wants a federal region, and will work towards that goal after the elections. The few signatures that Wail and the Fadhila were able to acquire, and the low approval rating for such a plan in opinion polls should be a warning to them that there is little support for their idea. In fact, Iraqi nationalism is re-emerging after the sectarian war, with Arab Iraqis at least supporting a stronger central government based in Baghdad. Both Fadhila and the SIIC could come out losers in the elections, which could mean the end of any ideas for an autonomous region in the south.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraqi PM Calls for Strong Central Government,” 1/22/09
Alsumaria, “Lights shed on federalism in Iraq Basra,” 11/13/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Establishing Basra region easing off political congestion – MP,” 11/14/08
CNN, “Basra’s bid for autonomy stalls,” 1/22/09
Hendawi, Hamza and Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Momentum builds for a self-ruled southern Iraq,” Associated Press, 1/16/09
Kurdish Globe, “Basra Seeks a Region of Its Own Within Iraq,” 11/13/08
Mohammed, Aref, “Thousands demand separate region for Iraq’s Basra,” Reuters, 12/27/08
The National, “Ballot tests Iraq’s integrity at polls,” 1/22/09
Reuters, “Autonomy Referendum For Iraq’s South Struck Down,” 1/20/09
Visser, Reidar, “An Initiative to Create the Federal Region of Basra Is Launched,” Historiae.org, 11/13/08
- “Basra, the Failed Gulf State, Part II: Wail Abd al-Latif Concedes Defeat,” Historiae.org, 1/17/09
Al-Wazzan, Saleem, “basra’s dominant parties expect to maintain power,” Niqash, 12/15/08
The drive for a Basra federal region was an uphill battle from the beginning. A recent poll by the Iraqi government run National Media Center found that 94% of the residents of the province were opposed to the idea. Latif and Fadhila were never able to bring a large number of residents over to their side because their argument appeared to be contradictory, and had major opposition from many of Iraq’s ruling parties. Supporters said they were nationalists who wanted to stop the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) from forming a southern Shiite region and limit Iranian influence. Many believe that can best be done by strengthening the central government in Baghdad, rather than breaking Basra off. Federalists also criticized the Kurdistan Regional Government for signing their own oil deals, yet wanted some control of petroleum revenues themselves. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the SIIC, and the Iraqi Islamic Party were all against the plan as well. Ironically, the Kurdish Alliance was the only outside group to stand by the Basra plan. As a result, the supporters were always on the defensive. Wail Abd al-Latif and others often complained that the Election Commission was biased against their effort, and blamed the Prime Minister and the United Iraqi Alliance for working against them. All together this led for a disjointed campaign that failed to garner much public approval in the end.
That didn’t stop the Fadhila Party from pulling out the stops to gain signatures. According to The National, Fadhila members pressured government workers to go along with the plan. The paper interviewed several provincial employees who said they were intimidated into signing the petition. All said they did not make formal complaints about the moves because they were afraid the ruling Fadhila party would fire them, arrest them, or have militiamen go after them.
The Fadhila Party came out the biggest loser in this effort, but it has implications for the Supreme Council as well. Fadhila put their full weight behind the Basra plan, even trying to strong-arm government employees into supporting it. They are already under pressure for failing to provide services, jobs, and development in Basra, and this could be a further sign that they will lose seats, and probably control of the province in the upcoming elections. This was also the first real attempt to form an autonomous region outside of Kurdistan. The Supreme Council has aspired to create a nine province southern Shiite region. They haven’t talked about it for a while, but recently a member of the Hakim family said that the SIIC still wants a federal region, and will work towards that goal after the elections. The few signatures that Wail and the Fadhila were able to acquire, and the low approval rating for such a plan in opinion polls should be a warning to them that there is little support for their idea. In fact, Iraqi nationalism is re-emerging after the sectarian war, with Arab Iraqis at least supporting a stronger central government based in Baghdad. Both Fadhila and the SIIC could come out losers in the elections, which could mean the end of any ideas for an autonomous region in the south.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraqi PM Calls for Strong Central Government,” 1/22/09
Alsumaria, “Lights shed on federalism in Iraq Basra,” 11/13/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Establishing Basra region easing off political congestion – MP,” 11/14/08
CNN, “Basra’s bid for autonomy stalls,” 1/22/09
Hendawi, Hamza and Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Momentum builds for a self-ruled southern Iraq,” Associated Press, 1/16/09
Kurdish Globe, “Basra Seeks a Region of Its Own Within Iraq,” 11/13/08
Mohammed, Aref, “Thousands demand separate region for Iraq’s Basra,” Reuters, 12/27/08
The National, “Ballot tests Iraq’s integrity at polls,” 1/22/09
Reuters, “Autonomy Referendum For Iraq’s South Struck Down,” 1/20/09
Visser, Reidar, “An Initiative to Create the Federal Region of Basra Is Launched,” Historiae.org, 11/13/08
- “Basra, the Failed Gulf State, Part II: Wail Abd al-Latif Concedes Defeat,” Historiae.org, 1/17/09
Al-Wazzan, Saleem, “basra’s dominant parties expect to maintain power,” Niqash, 12/15/08
Thursday, January 22, 2009
United States Commission on International Religious Freedom Dec. 08 Report on Iraq
The attacks on Christians in Mosul in October 2008 seemed to spur interest by a variety of different groups on Iraq’s minorities. As reported earlier, the Brookings Institution and the University of Bern released a study on the subject noting that all of Iraq’s small ethnic and religious groups were disenfranchised, displaced, and victims of attacks. They are also caught in the power struggle between Arabs and Kurds in the northern section of the country. At the same time, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom released a report on religious tensions overall in Iraq that largely focused upon minorities. Their findings were that while fighting between Shiites and Sunnis has largely subsided, violence against minorities such as Christians, Mandeans, and Yazidis is on going. All of Iraq’s smaller religious groups have been targeted, and the government has failed to protect them. Many have fled the country as a result, and they are not coming back. The Commission concluded by saying they are fearful for the future of Iraq’s minorities, and believes their continued existence is at risk.
The victimization of Iraq’s minorities begun under Saddam Hussein, but was greatly exasperated by the U.S. invasion. Saddam discriminated against Iraq’s smaller religious groups. His Arabization program of the south not only forced out Kurds, but Turkomen and Christians as well. After 2003 tensions increased. The 2005 Iraqi elections, while touted at the time as a step towards democracy and reconciliation, actually increased divisions, which turned into the sectarian war in 2006. Minorities proved to be the most vulnerable during this time. They continue to face attacks today, especially in the northern section of the country where they are concentrated in cities like Mosul and Ninewa province. Most minorities have fled Iraq except for the Ninewa Plains and Kurdistan.
The government has done little to help them. Services and reconstruction aid have not been distributed to them evenly. The Kurds have tried to exploit them, and also mistreated them. During the 2005 elections for example, Kurds worked to exclude minorities from voting through threats and denying them ballot boxes in their areas. The 2008 Provincial Election law originally dropped Article 50 that set up quotas for minorities. When this was later re-instated, the quotas were much lower than before. Minorities were supposed to have twelve seats, but ended up with six instead. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has tried to address the concerns of minorities by created a committee to deal with their issues, but it has been largely rejected as not being representative since the Prime Minister picked all of its members.
Christians
Iraq is home to a variety of Christian groups including Chaldeans, Assyrian Orthodox, Assyrian Church of the East, Syriac Orthodox, Armenians, Protestants, and Evangelicals. In 2003 there were approximately 1.4 million Christians in Iraq, today there is around 500,000-700,000. Their victimization since the U.S. invasion is shown by the fact that before 2003 they were 3% of Iraq’s population, but make 15-20% of the registered refugees in Jordan and Syria, and 35-64% of the refugees in Lebanon and Turkey.
The most recent attacks against Christians occurred in Mosul in October 2008. Fourteen Christians were killed in the city, which led 13,000 to flee. 400 families went to Syria. The United Nations believes that was half of the city’s Christian population. By early November some had come back to Mosul, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent extra police to help with security. However on November 11, two Christian sisters were killed in their home, keeping the fear level high and deterring most families from returning.
Violence against Christians was widespread before Mosul, beginning in 2004. Since that year 40 churches and Christian buildings have been destroyed. On January 8, 2008 six churches in Mosul and Baghdad were bombed in a single day. From January to June 2008, the U.N. reported 17 attacks and kidnappings, including the murders of ten Christians. Community leaders have been murdered, tortured, and kidnapped. In February 2008, the Chaldean Bishop of Mosul, Paulos Faraj Raho was kidnapped and later found dead. In April 2008 an Assyrian Orthodox priest was killed in Baghdad. Many churches have closed as a result. Shiite and Sunni extremists have also tried to impose Islamic codes on Christians. Businesses such as alcohol shops, beauty salons, movie theaters, and video stores owned by Christians have been attacked. Christians also suffered during the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad during the sectarian war. There use to be 2,000 Christian families living in the Dora section of Baghdad, but by the summer of 2007 there were only 300 left due to concerted efforts by Sunni insurgents. There have been small signs of change however as in 2007 and 2008 Christians were able to celebrate Christmas in the capital, and 45 families did return to Dora.
Mandeans
Sabean Mandeans are followers of John the Baptist. 90% have either fled the country of been killed. There are only 3,500-5,000 left in Iraq. Of the 28 religious leaders that were in the country during the Saddam era, only five are left. The community’s top religious leader fled to Syria after he was threatened. The Mandean Human Rights Group said that from April 2003 to March 2007 144 Mandeans were killed, 254 kidnapped, 238 threatened or attacked, 11 raped, and 35 forced to convert to Islam. From January 2007 to February 2008 42 were killed, 46 kidnapped, 10 threatened, and 21 attacked.
Mandeans are faced with the added difficulty of being pacifists, which means they can’t protect themselves. They are also afraid of extinction because one can only be born into the religion, and the displacement may make it harder and harder for them to find marriage partners. Mandean refugees also do not want to go back to Iraq, and wish to be repatriated to a third country.
Yazidis
Most Yazidis are concentrated in the north of Iraq in Dohuk and Ninewa provinces. Like Mandeans, they can only be born into the religion. Some believe that they originate from Zoroastrianism. Muslims do not consider them “People of the Book,” and have persecuted them as a result. On April 22, 2007 gunmen killed 23 Yazidis in the Kurdish town of Bashika after stopping a bus and only taking the Yazidis off of it. On August 14, 2007 four suicide bombings in the towns of Qahtaniya and Jazeera killed 786 Yazidis and wounded 1,562. Around 1,000 families became homeless as a result. Attacks on the community have continued into 2008 with 2 killed in a liquor store in Mosul on December 7, and seven were killed in Sinjar. Many are now afraid to leave their own communities. Many have stopped practicing their religion openly in fear that it will bring attention and attacks. Many farmers have either gone out of business or now rely upon middlemen to sell their products because Muslims refuse to work for them.
Other Minorities
There are around 2,000 Bahais in Iraq. They face legal repression as a 1970 law prohibits their religion. In April 2007 the Interior Ministry cancelled Regulation 358 from 1975, which said identity cards could not be given to Bahais, but now that they can receive them they are listed as Muslims instead of their own faith.
Iraq also used to have a small Jewish community. Now there are ten or less left. Those that have stayed in the country are hiding their religion. Like most of the Arab world, anti-Semitism is alive in Iraq.
Internally Displaced
Most of the displaced minorities have moved to the north, specifically Kurdistan and Ninewa. According to the International Organization for Migration 52.2% of the displaced in that province are Christians. This is because 53% of Ninewa are minorities. The Ninewa Plains for example, have been the historical homeland of Iraq’s Christians. The problem is that the north is one of the most violent areas of Iraq, especially Mosul, which remains the last major insurgent redoubt left in the country. Kurdistan has also been a popular destination. 24.6% of the displaced there are Christians. They have an easier time than Muslims to gain entry because they are not considered suspicious by the authorities. Kurdistan is also more secure than the rest of the country, which also makes it a draw. Yazidis are historically from Ninewa and Dohuk. Christians, Mandeans, and Yazidis all told the Commission that they are free to practice their religion in Kurdistan, and can set up their own private schools as well.
Political Pressure
Their residence in the north has placed minorities in the center of the increasing battle between Arabs and Kurds for political power. The United Nations reported that political parties in Diyala, Tamim, and Ninewa are attempting to pressure minorities to vote for them in the 2009 elections. The U.N. also reports that minorities are being forced from their houses, and their farms are being confiscated as part of this intimidation campaign. Many are pressured to identify themselves as either Kurds or Arabs. One of the major reasons why the number of seats set aside for minorities was reduced was because Arabs were afraid the minorities would vote with the Kurds for annexation of disputed territories in the north, while Kurds did not want them listed as minorities fearing that they would dilute the Kurdish vote.
Kurds have also been intimidating and pressuring minorities. They have set up an extensive patronage system that hands out money for churches and relief to win over loyalties. At the same time the Kurdish militia the Peshmerga have gone into disputed territories, taken land from minorities, only given them services if they agree to back the Kurds, stopped minorities from forming their own local security forces, and joining the police to protect themselves.
Christians have been one of the main focuses of this carrot and stick approach by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). In 2006, the deputy governor of Ninewa stopped Baghdad from using Christian police in the Ninewa Plains. Instead they were sent to Mosul. The Chaldean Syrian Syriac Council of America said that the Ninewa council attempted to deny jobs to Christians in the provincial police. Those that have been able to join say they have been marginalized within the force. By mid-2008 there were reports that there was some progress on this situation with 269 Christians being hired. The Kurds have also only allowed the Christians to form their own security forces if they are funded by the KRG. The Kurdish Minister of Finance Sarkis Aghajan Mamendu is a Christian, and is in charge of funding for Christians by the Kurds. Christians have also been pressured to sign forms supporting the annexation of their areas into Kurdistan, and the Kurds have cut off water to certain Christian villages.
The Yazidis have also come under similar pressure. They claim that the Kurds are trying to Kurdify them. In 2008 the State Department said that the Kurds confiscated Yazidi land and started to build settlements on them illegally. The Kurdish Finance Minister said that the Kurds would return that land, but it would take up to two years. Yazidis have also said that their villages are the last to receive aid from the KRG. In March 2008, the Kurdish Interior Ministry told the Commission that they were working on forming a Yazidi police force.
Refugees
Because of all the violence and political pressure, a disproportionate number of minorities have fled the country. Minorities are only 3% of Iraq’s population, but are 15% of the U.N. registered refugees in Jordan and 20% of those in Syria. Christians are 64% of the registered refugees in Turkey, and 35% of those in Lebanon. The Ministry of Migration and Displacement believes that 50% of the country’s minorities have left since 2003. Many will probably never come back because they do not believe they have a future in Iraq, and are seeking asylum in other countries.
Iraqi refugees in general are finding it harder and harder to live in neighboring countries, and minorities have it especially difficult. Iraqis are facing stricter controls on their entry, and many are running out of money. They are increasingly feeling that they will be kicked out or imprisoned for staying illegally. Access to services is extremely limited. In all of the countries except for Lebanon, Iraqis are not permitted to work. There are reports of women turning to prostitution, and children not going to school to support their families. Mandeans report that they are discriminated against in Jordan, and are hiding their religion as a result.
Because of these hardships, Iraqis have begun returning to their country. This is not true of its minorities. The Ministry of Displacement and Migration counted 3,657 families registered as returnees in Baghdad, and an additional 6,000 wanted to at the end of 2007, but there are no reports of minorities going back however.
The Commission ended with some recommendations. First Baghdad needs to ensure free and fair elections that will include the selection of at least six new minority representatives in the provinces due to the quotas. The government also needs to provide security for everyone, and set up police for minority communities. Iraqi identity cards should also not state religion or ethnicity, and the lingering sectarianism needs to be eliminated from the government and security forces. Baghdad also needs to work with minorities to ensure their needs are being met. The Kurds need to respect minority rights. Finally, the U.S. should provide aid to minorities, and help their refugees. Few of these suggestions are likely to happen as the government is increasingly divided between Arabs and Kurds who see minorities as a pawn between them in the north. This will only increase as elections near, and both sides are looking for votes.
Conclusion
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom did a good job detailing the situation of Iraq’s major minority groups. All of them have been singled out for attacks because of their beliefs and being different. This has threatened the existence of some, and forced members of all groups to leave. These fissures in Iraq are unlikely to be overcome any time soon. The divisions between the major groups in the country still exist. To expect the smallest groups to be treated equally and be given representation before the larger problems are overcome is hard to believe. Until then, Iraq’s minorities will continue to be attacked, and will be the focus of political manipulation between Arabs and Kurds, which threatens their ability to maintain their religion and communities.
SOURCES
Ferris, Elizabeth and Stoltz, Kimberly, “Minorities, Displacement and Iraq’s Future,” Brookings Institution-University of Bern, December 2008
United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, "Iraq Report - 2008," December 2008
The victimization of Iraq’s minorities begun under Saddam Hussein, but was greatly exasperated by the U.S. invasion. Saddam discriminated against Iraq’s smaller religious groups. His Arabization program of the south not only forced out Kurds, but Turkomen and Christians as well. After 2003 tensions increased. The 2005 Iraqi elections, while touted at the time as a step towards democracy and reconciliation, actually increased divisions, which turned into the sectarian war in 2006. Minorities proved to be the most vulnerable during this time. They continue to face attacks today, especially in the northern section of the country where they are concentrated in cities like Mosul and Ninewa province. Most minorities have fled Iraq except for the Ninewa Plains and Kurdistan.
The government has done little to help them. Services and reconstruction aid have not been distributed to them evenly. The Kurds have tried to exploit them, and also mistreated them. During the 2005 elections for example, Kurds worked to exclude minorities from voting through threats and denying them ballot boxes in their areas. The 2008 Provincial Election law originally dropped Article 50 that set up quotas for minorities. When this was later re-instated, the quotas were much lower than before. Minorities were supposed to have twelve seats, but ended up with six instead. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has tried to address the concerns of minorities by created a committee to deal with their issues, but it has been largely rejected as not being representative since the Prime Minister picked all of its members.
Christians
Iraq is home to a variety of Christian groups including Chaldeans, Assyrian Orthodox, Assyrian Church of the East, Syriac Orthodox, Armenians, Protestants, and Evangelicals. In 2003 there were approximately 1.4 million Christians in Iraq, today there is around 500,000-700,000. Their victimization since the U.S. invasion is shown by the fact that before 2003 they were 3% of Iraq’s population, but make 15-20% of the registered refugees in Jordan and Syria, and 35-64% of the refugees in Lebanon and Turkey.
The most recent attacks against Christians occurred in Mosul in October 2008. Fourteen Christians were killed in the city, which led 13,000 to flee. 400 families went to Syria. The United Nations believes that was half of the city’s Christian population. By early November some had come back to Mosul, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent extra police to help with security. However on November 11, two Christian sisters were killed in their home, keeping the fear level high and deterring most families from returning.
Violence against Christians was widespread before Mosul, beginning in 2004. Since that year 40 churches and Christian buildings have been destroyed. On January 8, 2008 six churches in Mosul and Baghdad were bombed in a single day. From January to June 2008, the U.N. reported 17 attacks and kidnappings, including the murders of ten Christians. Community leaders have been murdered, tortured, and kidnapped. In February 2008, the Chaldean Bishop of Mosul, Paulos Faraj Raho was kidnapped and later found dead. In April 2008 an Assyrian Orthodox priest was killed in Baghdad. Many churches have closed as a result. Shiite and Sunni extremists have also tried to impose Islamic codes on Christians. Businesses such as alcohol shops, beauty salons, movie theaters, and video stores owned by Christians have been attacked. Christians also suffered during the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad during the sectarian war. There use to be 2,000 Christian families living in the Dora section of Baghdad, but by the summer of 2007 there were only 300 left due to concerted efforts by Sunni insurgents. There have been small signs of change however as in 2007 and 2008 Christians were able to celebrate Christmas in the capital, and 45 families did return to Dora.
Mandeans
Sabean Mandeans are followers of John the Baptist. 90% have either fled the country of been killed. There are only 3,500-5,000 left in Iraq. Of the 28 religious leaders that were in the country during the Saddam era, only five are left. The community’s top religious leader fled to Syria after he was threatened. The Mandean Human Rights Group said that from April 2003 to March 2007 144 Mandeans were killed, 254 kidnapped, 238 threatened or attacked, 11 raped, and 35 forced to convert to Islam. From January 2007 to February 2008 42 were killed, 46 kidnapped, 10 threatened, and 21 attacked.
Mandeans are faced with the added difficulty of being pacifists, which means they can’t protect themselves. They are also afraid of extinction because one can only be born into the religion, and the displacement may make it harder and harder for them to find marriage partners. Mandean refugees also do not want to go back to Iraq, and wish to be repatriated to a third country.
Yazidis
Most Yazidis are concentrated in the north of Iraq in Dohuk and Ninewa provinces. Like Mandeans, they can only be born into the religion. Some believe that they originate from Zoroastrianism. Muslims do not consider them “People of the Book,” and have persecuted them as a result. On April 22, 2007 gunmen killed 23 Yazidis in the Kurdish town of Bashika after stopping a bus and only taking the Yazidis off of it. On August 14, 2007 four suicide bombings in the towns of Qahtaniya and Jazeera killed 786 Yazidis and wounded 1,562. Around 1,000 families became homeless as a result. Attacks on the community have continued into 2008 with 2 killed in a liquor store in Mosul on December 7, and seven were killed in Sinjar. Many are now afraid to leave their own communities. Many have stopped practicing their religion openly in fear that it will bring attention and attacks. Many farmers have either gone out of business or now rely upon middlemen to sell their products because Muslims refuse to work for them.
Other Minorities
There are around 2,000 Bahais in Iraq. They face legal repression as a 1970 law prohibits their religion. In April 2007 the Interior Ministry cancelled Regulation 358 from 1975, which said identity cards could not be given to Bahais, but now that they can receive them they are listed as Muslims instead of their own faith.
Iraq also used to have a small Jewish community. Now there are ten or less left. Those that have stayed in the country are hiding their religion. Like most of the Arab world, anti-Semitism is alive in Iraq.
Internally Displaced
Most of the displaced minorities have moved to the north, specifically Kurdistan and Ninewa. According to the International Organization for Migration 52.2% of the displaced in that province are Christians. This is because 53% of Ninewa are minorities. The Ninewa Plains for example, have been the historical homeland of Iraq’s Christians. The problem is that the north is one of the most violent areas of Iraq, especially Mosul, which remains the last major insurgent redoubt left in the country. Kurdistan has also been a popular destination. 24.6% of the displaced there are Christians. They have an easier time than Muslims to gain entry because they are not considered suspicious by the authorities. Kurdistan is also more secure than the rest of the country, which also makes it a draw. Yazidis are historically from Ninewa and Dohuk. Christians, Mandeans, and Yazidis all told the Commission that they are free to practice their religion in Kurdistan, and can set up their own private schools as well.
Political Pressure
Their residence in the north has placed minorities in the center of the increasing battle between Arabs and Kurds for political power. The United Nations reported that political parties in Diyala, Tamim, and Ninewa are attempting to pressure minorities to vote for them in the 2009 elections. The U.N. also reports that minorities are being forced from their houses, and their farms are being confiscated as part of this intimidation campaign. Many are pressured to identify themselves as either Kurds or Arabs. One of the major reasons why the number of seats set aside for minorities was reduced was because Arabs were afraid the minorities would vote with the Kurds for annexation of disputed territories in the north, while Kurds did not want them listed as minorities fearing that they would dilute the Kurdish vote.
Kurds have also been intimidating and pressuring minorities. They have set up an extensive patronage system that hands out money for churches and relief to win over loyalties. At the same time the Kurdish militia the Peshmerga have gone into disputed territories, taken land from minorities, only given them services if they agree to back the Kurds, stopped minorities from forming their own local security forces, and joining the police to protect themselves.
Christians have been one of the main focuses of this carrot and stick approach by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). In 2006, the deputy governor of Ninewa stopped Baghdad from using Christian police in the Ninewa Plains. Instead they were sent to Mosul. The Chaldean Syrian Syriac Council of America said that the Ninewa council attempted to deny jobs to Christians in the provincial police. Those that have been able to join say they have been marginalized within the force. By mid-2008 there were reports that there was some progress on this situation with 269 Christians being hired. The Kurds have also only allowed the Christians to form their own security forces if they are funded by the KRG. The Kurdish Minister of Finance Sarkis Aghajan Mamendu is a Christian, and is in charge of funding for Christians by the Kurds. Christians have also been pressured to sign forms supporting the annexation of their areas into Kurdistan, and the Kurds have cut off water to certain Christian villages.
The Yazidis have also come under similar pressure. They claim that the Kurds are trying to Kurdify them. In 2008 the State Department said that the Kurds confiscated Yazidi land and started to build settlements on them illegally. The Kurdish Finance Minister said that the Kurds would return that land, but it would take up to two years. Yazidis have also said that their villages are the last to receive aid from the KRG. In March 2008, the Kurdish Interior Ministry told the Commission that they were working on forming a Yazidi police force.
Refugees
Because of all the violence and political pressure, a disproportionate number of minorities have fled the country. Minorities are only 3% of Iraq’s population, but are 15% of the U.N. registered refugees in Jordan and 20% of those in Syria. Christians are 64% of the registered refugees in Turkey, and 35% of those in Lebanon. The Ministry of Migration and Displacement believes that 50% of the country’s minorities have left since 2003. Many will probably never come back because they do not believe they have a future in Iraq, and are seeking asylum in other countries.
Iraqi refugees in general are finding it harder and harder to live in neighboring countries, and minorities have it especially difficult. Iraqis are facing stricter controls on their entry, and many are running out of money. They are increasingly feeling that they will be kicked out or imprisoned for staying illegally. Access to services is extremely limited. In all of the countries except for Lebanon, Iraqis are not permitted to work. There are reports of women turning to prostitution, and children not going to school to support their families. Mandeans report that they are discriminated against in Jordan, and are hiding their religion as a result.
Because of these hardships, Iraqis have begun returning to their country. This is not true of its minorities. The Ministry of Displacement and Migration counted 3,657 families registered as returnees in Baghdad, and an additional 6,000 wanted to at the end of 2007, but there are no reports of minorities going back however.
The Commission ended with some recommendations. First Baghdad needs to ensure free and fair elections that will include the selection of at least six new minority representatives in the provinces due to the quotas. The government also needs to provide security for everyone, and set up police for minority communities. Iraqi identity cards should also not state religion or ethnicity, and the lingering sectarianism needs to be eliminated from the government and security forces. Baghdad also needs to work with minorities to ensure their needs are being met. The Kurds need to respect minority rights. Finally, the U.S. should provide aid to minorities, and help their refugees. Few of these suggestions are likely to happen as the government is increasingly divided between Arabs and Kurds who see minorities as a pawn between them in the north. This will only increase as elections near, and both sides are looking for votes.
Conclusion
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom did a good job detailing the situation of Iraq’s major minority groups. All of them have been singled out for attacks because of their beliefs and being different. This has threatened the existence of some, and forced members of all groups to leave. These fissures in Iraq are unlikely to be overcome any time soon. The divisions between the major groups in the country still exist. To expect the smallest groups to be treated equally and be given representation before the larger problems are overcome is hard to believe. Until then, Iraq’s minorities will continue to be attacked, and will be the focus of political manipulation between Arabs and Kurds, which threatens their ability to maintain their religion and communities.
SOURCES
Ferris, Elizabeth and Stoltz, Kimberly, “Minorities, Displacement and Iraq’s Future,” Brookings Institution-University of Bern, December 2008
United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, "Iraq Report - 2008," December 2008
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