Aid groups are really the only ones consistently reporting on the liberated areas of Iraq. Many of these places are rural and the government isn’t even that present. The United Nations’ Migration Agency, Returns Working Group, and Social Inquiry released a paper on the displaced returning home that contained information on the Ramadi district in Anbar, Sadiya and Jalawla in Diyala, Abbasi in Kirkuk, west Mosul, Sinjar, and Tal Afar in Ninewa, and Baiji and Tuz Kharmato in Salahaddin. All were considered hotspots due to local tensions, the lack of housing and services, and other issues they are encountering since they were freed from the Islamic State.
The Ramadi district is in eastern Anbar and includes the
towns of Husaiba, Sharqiya, Khalidiya, and Habaniya. The major concerns are
jobs, services, and housing destruction. 80% of areas for example reported
power shortages. There are also fears of revenge attacks and kidnappings. The
Islamic State is not really considered a problem. The real source of tension is
tribal conflicts which have increased. Many tribes split during the war between
supporting the insurgency and backing the government. Those that lost the war are
being shunned and sometimes banned from areas. Sheikhs are also vying for power
in the local governments and for contracts, adding to the rivalries.
Jalawla and Sadiya are in northeast Diyala. 90% of the
housing is destroyed and rebuilding is only going on in 10% of the area. The
electricity supply has deteriorated since the end of 2018. One-third of the
areas do not have enough clean water, and 14 locations had no water at all.
There is also a lack of jobs. Access to schools is uneven with some not having
re-opened in Jalawla. Security is a concern as well as the Islamic State has
consistently hit the area. That’s because the federal government took control
of the two places in 2017 and lacks the forces to adequately secure it.
Abbasi is part of the Hawija district in southern Kirkuk.
The infrastructure has improved since the end of 2018, but water is only
available to half the population. Electricity on the other hand is in good
supply. There is widespread housing destruction at a moderate level. Jobs are
also a concern, and farming has only partially restarted. All the schools are
open and there is access to health centers. The lack of services and
livelihoods, as well as housing damage are major reasons for people not
returning to their home areas.
West Mosul is still in a poor state. Half the housing in the
residential district is severely damaged. Electricity and water are in short
supply. 50% said they only received water 1-3 days out of the week at most.
Despite the difficulties there has been a steady stream of returns.
Sinjar is in western Ninewa. Less than half the population
has returned. That’s because more than 50% of the residences are destroyed, and
there is no reconstruction going on. That has led to 73% of the locations being
occupied by squatters. Few businesses or markets are open as well. There is a
scarcity of goods for those that are accessible. People believe there has been
a deterioration in safety and that ethnosectarian tensions between Yazidis and
Arabs is growing. Many of the latter are considered IS supporters and fear that
Yazidis will take revenge upon them. There is also the threat of the Islamic
State. There have been reports since the start of the year that IS fighters
have fled Syria into western Ninewa.
Tal Afar is nearby Sinjar, and is suffering from a security
dilemma. There are five different security groups in the center of the
district. People are concerned of new IS attacks. On the positive side
reconciliation talks are going on in the town, and that is helping with
displaced people coming home. That’s not true in outer areas of the district
however. In the Zumar and Ayadiya subdistricts for example there is widespread
mistrust. There are also villages where there are movement restrictions because
the residents are considered IS sympathizers. Many rural areas in liberated
areas have a plethora of security forces. There are the police, the army, and
various Hashd groups. Many times they are in competition with each other, which
leads to tensions and rivalries.
Baiji and Tuz Kharmato are both in eastern Salahaddin with
the former in the north and the latter in the south. Baiji is seeing a steady number
of returns to the town center. There is rebuilding going on, schools and health
centers are open, but IEDs are still a problem. Kidnappings, IS attacks and
clashes between the different security forces are all concerns. Three-quarters
of Baiji have movement restrictions because the locals are considered IS
supporters. The Tuz Kharmato district which includes the town along with
Suleiman Beq and Amerli has movement restrictions imposed across the whole area
by the Iraqi forces. In Amerli there are fears of growing tensions amongst the
Iraqi forces as they compete for control. There is no reconciliation going on,
and land disputes and squatting are issues in half the areas.
The survey provides some important insights into the
liberated areas. There is still widespread destruction and a lack of services,
which are major deterrents to displaced people going home. Too few regions have
rebuilding going on as the central government has no program. Leftover IEDs are
another issue. Security is also a concern, but it is not always about the
Islamic State. Too many places have competing security forces or tribal
rivalries, which is leading to tensions as they vie for control. Checkpoints
for example are a lucrative business where people are extorted for money. There
are also many populations that can’t freely move because they are considered
IS. They also fear revenge attacks. Again, Baghdad’s lack of concern means that
each district has been largely left to its own devices. That means whichever
armed groups or tribes are there can do what they want. Overall, this is
creating a very complicated environment where security, housing, and
livelihoods are vastly different across central and northern Iraq with no signs
of a solution anytime soon.
SOURCES
DTM The UN Migration
Agency, Returns Working Group, Social Inquiry “Return Index, Findings Round two
– Iraq January 2019,” 2/20/19
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