 |
| (US Army) |
After Iraq’s oil exports dipped in March due to bad weather they have recovered. May saw the second month of growth in both the flow of oil and revenues. This was despite a slight dip in prices. At the same time, the oil industry has become a political football once again.
In May Iraq exported a total of
110,736,670 barrels of oil. That averaged out to 3.572 million barrels a day.
That was up from 3.377 million barrels in March and 3.466 million barrels in
April. It’s still below the 3.6 million that was seen in January and February.
The reason for the
growth was an expansion in exports from both Basra and to Turkey. The flow of
oil through Basra went from 3.354 million in March down to 3.256 in April and
then up to 3.441 in May. Likewise, exports using the Kurdish
pipeline to Turkey went from 99,000 in March to 86,000 in April and then
102,000 in May.
Basra
March 3.354
mil/bar/day
April 3.256
mil/bar/day
May 3.441
mil/bar/day
Kirkuk
March 99,000
April 86,000
May 102,000
Iraqi crude sold for
$66.68 per barrel in May, down from $67.41 in April. The slight dip was
probably due to President Trump saying he didn’t want relations with Iran to
continue to escalate. That didn’t hurt Baghdad’s revenues however. It made
$7.384 billion in April, the highest amount since $7.9 billion in October 2018 due
to the rise in exports.
While that was good
news for Iraq’s budget, petroleum has once again become a political issue in the capital. Shiite parties are
complaining that the Kurdistan government (KRG) has not met its obligations
under the 2019 budget to export 250,000 barrels a day for the Oil Ministry. As
a result, parliamentarians are calling for Baghdad to cut payments to
Kurdistan. At the same time the central government has three lawsuits against
the KRG. There are two over the KRG’s independent oil exports with one against
the Kurds and the other against Turkey, and the third is for control of the Khurmala Dome oil field in Kirkuk. Prime Minister Adil
Mahdi has acknowledged the problem, but has been unwilling to take up the
budget issue for now. He is weak politically and doesn’t want to start a fight
with the Kurds when he is already dealing with the fractious Shiite parties.
Any new dispute would also disrupt oil exports when Iraq is trying to boost
them to gain more influence in OPEC and earn more money after suffering huge
budget deficits requiring borrowing for the last few years.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018
|
Month
|
Avg Export
(Mil)
|
Avg Price
|
Earnings
(Bil)
|
|
Jan 2014
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.073
|
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$7.9
|
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
|
Apr
|
2.51
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
|
May
|
2.58
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
|
Jun
|
2.423
|
$102.96
|
$7.47
|
|
Jul
|
2.442
|
$102.27
|
$7.8
|
|
Aug
|
2.375
|
$97.44
|
$7.172
|
|
Sep
|
2.542
|
$90.76
|
$7
|
|
Oct
|
2.461
|
$81.12
|
$6.19
|
|
Nov
|
2.51
|
$70.40
|
$5.238
|
|
Dec
|
2.94
|
$57
|
$5.195
|
|
2014 Totals
|
2.517
|
$92.39
|
$7.017
|
|
Jan 2015
|
2.535
|
$41.45
|
$3.258
|
|
Feb
|
2.597
|
$47.43
|
$3.449
|
|
Mar
|
2.980
|
$48.24
|
$3.449
|
|
Apr
|
3.077
|
$51.70
|
$4.8
|
|
May
|
3.145
|
$55.87
|
$5.447
|
|
Jun
|
3.187
|
$55.32
|
$5.289
|
|
Jul
|
3.105
|
$50.99
|
$4.908
|
|
Aug
|
3.079
|
$40.59
|
$3.925
|
|
Sep
|
3.052
|
$40.32
|
$3.725
|
|
Oct
|
2.703
|
$39.56
|
$3.29
|
|
Nov
|
3.363
|
$36.42
|
$3.66
|
|
Dec
|
3.216
|
$29.84
|
$2.92
|
|
2015 Totals
|
3.003
|
$44.81
|
$4.094
|
|
Jan 2016
|
3.285
|
$22.21
|
$2.262
|
|
Feb
|
3.224
|
$23
|
$2.249
|
|
Mar
|
3.287
|
$28.40
|
$2.894
|
|
Apr
|
3.363
|
$33.38
|
$3.368
|
|
May
|
3.2
|
$37.78
|
$3.748
|
|
Jun
|
3.175
|
$40.36
|
$3.845
|
|
Jul
|
3.203
|
$38.28
|
$3.802
|
|
Aug
|
3.229
|
$29.24
|
$3.928
|
|
Sep
|
3.276
|
$38.89
|
$3.822
|
|
Oct
|
3.384
|
-
|
$4.426
|
|
Nov
|
3.47
|
$40
|
$4.216
|
|
Dec
|
3.52
|
-
|
$5.074
|
|
2016 Totals
|
3.302
|
-
|
$3.625
|
|
Jan 2017
|
3.321
|
-
|
$5.002
|
|
Feb
|
3.270
|
-
|
$4.514
|
|
Mar
|
3.258
|
$47.18
|
$4.766
|
|
Apr
|
3.253
|
$47.27
|
$4.607
|
|
May
|
3.261
|
$47
|
$4.623
|
|
Jun
|
3.273
|
$42.07
|
$4.144
|
|
Jul
|
3.230
|
$43.80
|
$4.386
|
|
Aug
|
3.216
|
-
|
$4.608
|
|
Sep
|
3.24
|
-
|
$4.882
|
|
Oct
|
3.346
|
$52.59
|
$5.456
|
|
Nov
|
3.502
|
$59.19
|
$6.021
|
|
Dec
|
3.535
|
$59.35
|
$6.504
|
|
2017 Totals
|
3.309
|
-
|
$4.959
|
|
Jan 2018
|
3.490
|
$63.29
|
$6.847
|
|
Feb
|
3.426
|
$60.14
|
$5.770
|
|
Mar
|
3.453
|
$59.95
|
$6.418
|
|
Apr
|
3.340
|
$64.60
|
$6.502
|
|
May
|
3.489
|
$69.80
|
$7.551
|
|
Jun
|
3.521
|
$69.32
|
$7.323
|
|
Jul
|
3.544
|
$69.16
|
$7.532
|
|
Aug
|
3.583
|
$69.65
|
$7.735
|
|
Sep
|
3.56
|
$74.15
|
$7.919
|
|
Oct
|
3.478
|
$73.38
|
$7.908
|
|
Nov
|
3.377
|
$61.09
|
$6.195
|
|
Dec
|
3.726
|
$52.80
|
$6.234
|
|
2018 Totals
|
3.498
|
$65.61
|
$6.953
|
|
Jan 2019
|
3.649
|
$56.15
|
$6.367
|
|
Feb
|
3.621
|
$60.83
|
$6.179
|
|
Mar
|
3.377
|
$63.80
|
$6.679
|
|
Apr
|
3.466
|
$67.41
|
$7.011
|
|
May
|
3.572
|
$66.68
|
$7.384
|
SOURCES
Chomani, Kamal, “Oil
dispute reignites Baghdad-Erbil tensions,” Al Monitor, 5/29/19
Iraq Oil Report,
“Baghdad-Kurdistan oil disputes flare up in Parliament,” 5/24/19
- “Iraq’s North Oil
Co. sues to take Khurmala back from KRG,” 5/29/19
Al Mirbad, “Oil: May
revenues amounted to 7 billion and 384 million dollars,” 6/1/19
Reuters, “Iraq’s
total oil exports rise to 3.572 mln bpd in May – ministry,” 6/1/19
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