Monday, November 6, 2023

Islamic State Disappearing In Iraq While Pro-Iran Groups Return To The Field


 

October was marked by two major trends. First, the Islamic State continued to fade from Iraq. Second, pro-Iran groups restarted attacks upon U.S. targets due to the war in Gaza.

 

There were only two incidents involving the Islamic State during the month. That was a new post-2003 low in violence. On October 22 in Salahaddin a gunman opened fire on a group of civilians injuring four while on October 24 in Kirkuk the Counter-Terror Service set an ambush for a group of militants which led to a gun battle and one of the insurgents detonating a suicide vest.  The former was the only actual attack by the Islamic State during the month. It had not carried out an operation since September 22. That meant there was a one month span when IS was completely inactive in the country.

 

The group has largely disappeared in Iraq having failed to rebuild its manpower and networks. It is solely focused upon surviving which is why it is not carrying out attacks because it can’t afford any loses.

 

On the other hand pro-Iran Hashd have started going after the Americans again because of the war in Gaza. The attacks began on October 18 with strikes upon Al-Assad airbase in Anbar and al-Harir airbase in Irbil. Since them there have been a total of 10 assaults on Al-Assad and 5 on Al-Harir during the month. 4 U.S. soldiers were wounded in Anbar.

 

These attacks are not meant to cause any casualties however. That would bring about American retaliation which has already happened in Syria. The Iraqis want to avoid that. These are just meant to show that these factions are standing with the Palestinians. There is a fear within the Iraqi government that if the groups begin attacking the U.S. embassy there could be U.S. airstrikes in Iraq. Baghdad is already worried that the on-going drone and rocket incidents are ruining Iraq’s business and diplomatic environment. The problem of course is that while these Hashd units are part of the administration Prime Minister Sudani has no control over them.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Oct 1-7

Oct 8-14

Oct 15-21

Oct 22-28

Oct 29-31

Totals

Anbar

-

-

3 Pro-Iran

4 Pro-Iran

3 Pro-Iran

10 Pro-Iran

Irbil

-

-

4 Pro-Iran

1 Pro-Iran

-

5 Pro-Iran

Kirkuk

 

 

-

1

-

1

Salahaddin

-

-

-

1

-

1

TOTAL

-

-

7 Pro-Iran

7/5 Pro-Iran

3 Pro-Iran

17/15 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Oct 1-7

Oct 8-14

Oct 15-21

Oct 22-28

Oct 29-31

Totals

Anbar

-

-

-

4W

-

4W

Salahaddin

-

-

-

4W

-

4W

TOTAL

-

-

-

8W

-

8W

 

Security In Iraq 2022-23

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

18/9

3

4

Jan 8-14

35/21

3

18

Jan 15-21

12/5

17

12

Jan 22-28

16/3

8

19

Jan 29-31

6/2

2

6

JAN

87/41

33

59

Feb 1-7

11/3

1

10

Feb 8-14

14/6

8

3

Feb 15-21

9/1

-

11

Feb 22-28

8/4

1

5

FEB

42/14

10

29

Mar 1-7

7/3

1

-

Mar 8-14

18/3/1

6

5

Mar 15-21

10/4

5

6

Mar 22-28

6/1

7

4

Mar 29-31

4/1

-

5

MAR

46/12/1

19

21

Apr 1-7

16/8

-

6

Apr 8-14

21/7

8

25

Apr 15-21

22/2

10

22

Apr 22-28

44/4

14

44

Apr 29-30

6/1

2

6

APR

111/22

34

103

May 1-7

31/3

8

25

May 8-14

9/2

2

7

May 15-21

18/6

10

6

May 22-28

13/1

21

11

May 29-31

2/1

-

2

MAY

73/13

41

51

Jun 1-7

6/2

-

8

Jun 8-14

12/4

1

9

Jun 15-21

10/2

5

2

Jun 22-28

12/6

1

14

Jun 29-30

-

-

-

JUN

40/14

7

33

Jul 1-7

7/1

6

11

Jul 8-14

3

-

2

Jul 15-21

11/2

14

16

Jul 22-28

18/7

9

21

Jul 29-31

4

4

4

JUL

43/6

33

54

Aug 1-7

9/1

6

15

Aug 8-14

14

2

14

Aug 15-21

7/2

-

6

Aug 22-28

23/4

14

15

Aug 29-31

4

2

4

AUG

57/7/1

24

54

Sep 1-7

11/1

3

20

Sep 8-14

5

-

12

Sep 15-21

12

4

14

Sep 22-28

10/2 M

2

16

Sep 29-30

3/1 M

-

2

SEP

41/1/3 M

9

64

Oct 1-7

9/2 M

6

16

Oct 8-14

8/2/1 M

5

19

Oct 15-21

6

4

7

Oct 22-28

3

2

1

Oct 29-31

2

-

2

OCT

28/2/3 M

17

45

Nov 1-7

7

1

3

Nov 8-14

6

1

8

Nov 15-21

8

7

17

Nov 22-28

2

1

-

Nov 29-30

-

-

-

NOV

23

10

28

Dec 1-7

13/1

6

11

Dec 8-14

6

7

8

Dec 15-21

6

29

15

Dec 22-28

6

-

4

Dec 29-31

2

-

-

DEC

33/1

42

38

Jan 1-7

7

4

2

Jan 8-14

6/1

5

2

Jan 15-21

11/1

2

7

Jan 22-28

5/2

1

2

Jan 29-31

1

-

2

JAN

29/4

12

15

Feb 1-7

6/2

1

5

Feb 8-14

1

-

2

Feb 15-21

4

4

8

Feb 22-28

9/1

7

3

FEB

20/3

12

18

Mar 1-7

3

10

4

Mar 8-14

2

2

1

Mar 15-21

2

1

3

Mar 22-28

1

2

-

Mar 29-31

1

3

-

MAR

9

18

8

Apr 1-7

5

1

7

Apr 8-14

4

-

1

Apr 15-21

5

3

-

Apr 22-28

2

1

-

Apr 29-30

1

1

-

APR

16

6

8

May 1-7

2

1

1

May 8-14

6

4

3

May 15-21

3

2

6

May 22-28

3

1

3

May 29-31

2

-

3

MAY

15

8

14

Jun 1-7

-

-

-

Jun 8-14

4

7

4

Jun 15-21

2

1

2

Jun 22-28

4

2

4

Jun 29-30

-

-

-

JUN

10

10

10

Jul 1-7

1

-

-

Jul 8-14

3

2

1

Jul 15-21

2

-

1

Jul 22-28

2

-

2

Jul 29-31

3/2

-

-

JUL

11/2

2

4

Aug 1-7

4

-

4

Aug 8-14

2

1

3

Aug 15-21

2

-

5

Aug 22-28

2

-

2

Aug 29-31

3/1

1

9

AUG

13/1

2

23

Sep 1-7

1

-

1

Sep 8-14

1

1

-

Sep 15-21

2

-

4

Sep 22-28

1

1

1

Sep 29-30

-

-

-

SEP

5

2

6

Oct 1-7

-

-

-

Oct 8-14

-

-

-

Oct 15-21

7 Pro-Iran

-

-

Oct 22-28

7/5 Pro-Iran

-

8

10/29-31

3 Pro-Iran

-

-

OCT

17/15 Pro-Iran

-

8

 

SOURCES

 

Asharq Al-Awsat, "US Says Thwarts Drone Attack on Its Troops in Iraq," 10/18/23

 

Bechocha, Julian, "Iran=backed Iraqi militia says drone struck US base in Erbil," 10/18/23

 

NINA, "The Anti-Terrorism Service kills (3) terrorists after clashes in Kirkuk," 10/24/23

 

Shafaq, "A missile bombardment targets Ain al-Assad base in Anbar," 10/24/23

 

Al Sumaria, "Four citizens were injured by gunfire south of Salahaddin," 10/22/23

 

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