 |
| (Iraq Oil Report) |
Iraq’s oil industry was hit by two bad trends in November 2018. First, bad weather meant its exports dipped. At the same time petroleum prices took a large fall. That offset the good news that Baghdad and Irbil came to a new agreement to allow the Oil Ministry to use the latter’s pipeline to Turkey.
Iraq’s oil exports dropped to a seven-month low in November.
The country averaged 3.372
million barrels a day after hitting a series of highs over the
previous months. That was the lowest amount since April’s 3.340 million
barrels. Previously Iraq had been averaging over 3.5 million barrels a month
from June to September, and 3.478 in October. Bad
weather hit Basra which hindered tankers from docking and loading
Iraqi oil resulting in the dip.
On top of that oil prices took a big hit. International
petroleum prices took
one of the largest losses in years in November due to increased
supply and a decline in demand. For Iraq that meant a barrel of its crude went
from $73.38 in October all the way down to $61.09
in November. That was the lowest price since March’s $59.95.
Previously oil prices had been slowing creeping upwards and passed the $70 per
barrel mark in September. Iraq has been contributing to this situation by
exceeding its OPEC quotas and constantly pushing for more exports.
Of course, put those two events together and that led to a
nine-month low in revenue. Iraq earned $6.179 billion, the smallest amount
since February. Before that the nation had been averaging $7.661 billion a
month for six months. Iraq had been hoping the increased earnings would cover
its previous budget deficits. It has also talked about large rebuilding
projects. The new earnings situation puts a damper on those plans.
The one positive note amongst all this negativity was that
Baghdad started using
the Kurdish pipeline to Turkey for the first time in a year. There were several
different conflicting figures on how much the Oil Ministry was able to send to
Turkey. The ministry wants to drastically increase the amount. The United
States pushed through this detail to try to keep oil prices down while
sanctions were imposed upon Iran. This puts Iraq in a bind however. It wants to
continue to increase its oil exports, but it is contributing to the decline in
prices.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018
|
Month
|
Avg Export
(Mil)
|
Avg Price
|
Earnings
(Bil)
|
|
Jan 2014
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.073
|
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$7.9
|
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
|
Apr
|
2.51
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
|
May
|
2.58
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
|
Jun
|
2.423
|
$102.96
|
$7.47
|
|
Jul
|
2.442
|
$102.27
|
$7.8
|
|
Aug
|
2.375
|
$97.44
|
$7.172
|
|
Sep
|
2.542
|
$90.76
|
$7
|
|
Oct
|
2.461
|
$81.12
|
$6.19
|
|
Nov
|
2.51
|
$70.40
|
$5.238
|
|
Dec
|
2.94
|
$57
|
$5.195
|
|
2014 Totals
|
2.517
|
$92.39
|
$7.017
|
|
Jan 2015
|
2.535
|
$41.45
|
$3.258
|
|
Feb
|
2.597
|
$47.43
|
$3.449
|
|
Mar
|
2.980
|
$48.24
|
$3.449
|
|
Apr
|
3.077
|
$51.70
|
$4.8
|
|
May
|
3.145
|
$55.87
|
$5.447
|
|
Jun
|
3.187
|
$55.32
|
$5.289
|
|
Jul
|
3.105
|
$50.99
|
$4.908
|
|
Aug
|
3.079
|
$40.59
|
$3.925
|
|
Sep
|
3.052
|
$40.32
|
$3.725
|
|
Oct
|
2.703
|
$39.56
|
$3.29
|
|
Nov
|
3.363
|
$36.42
|
$3.66
|
|
Dec
|
3.216
|
$29.84
|
$2.92
|
|
2015 Totals
|
3.003
|
$44.81
|
$4.094
|
|
Jan 2016
|
3.285
|
$22.21
|
$2.262
|
|
Feb
|
3.224
|
$23
|
$2.249
|
|
Mar
|
3.287
|
$28.40
|
$2.894
|
|
Apr
|
3.363
|
$33.38
|
$3.368
|
|
May
|
3.2
|
$37.78
|
$3.748
|
|
Jun
|
3.175
|
$40.36
|
$3.845
|
|
Jul
|
3.203
|
$38.28
|
$3.802
|
|
Aug
|
3.229
|
$29.24
|
$3.928
|
|
Sep
|
3.276
|
$38.89
|
$3.822
|
|
Oct
|
3.384
|
-
|
$4.426
|
|
Nov
|
3.47
|
$40
|
$4.216
|
|
Dec
|
3.52
|
-
|
$5.074
|
|
2016 Totals
|
3.302
|
-
|
$3.625
|
|
Jan 2017
|
3.321
|
-
|
$5.002
|
|
Feb
|
3.270
|
-
|
$4.514
|
|
Mar
|
3.258
|
$47.18
|
$4.766
|
|
Apr
|
3.253
|
$47.27
|
$4.607
|
|
May
|
3.261
|
$47
|
$4.623
|
|
Jun
|
3.273
|
$42.07
|
$4.144
|
|
Jul
|
3.230
|
$43.80
|
$4.386
|
|
Aug
|
3.216
|
-
|
$4.608
|
|
Sep
|
3.24
|
-
|
$4.882
|
|
Oct
|
3.346
|
$52.59
|
$5.456
|
|
Nov
|
3.502
|
$59.19
|
$6.021
|
|
Dec
|
3.535
|
$59.35
|
$6.504
|
|
2017 Totals
|
3.309
|
-
|
$4.959
|
|
Jan 2018
|
3.490
|
$63.29
|
$6.847
|
|
Feb
|
3.426
|
$60.14
|
$5.770
|
|
Mar
|
3.453
|
$59.95
|
$6.418
|
|
Apr
|
3.340
|
$64.60
|
$6.502
|
|
May
|
3.489
|
$69.80
|
$7.551
|
|
Jun
|
3.521
|
$69.32
|
$7.323
|
|
Jul
|
3.544
|
$69.16
|
$7.532
|
|
Aug
|
3.583
|
$69.65
|
$7.735
|
|
Sep
|
3.56
|
$74.15
|
$7.919
|
|
Oct
|
3.478
|
$73.38
|
$7.908
|
|
Nov
|
3.372
|
$61.09
|
$6.179
|
SOURCES
Lando, Ben, Tahir, Rawaz, “November exports decline as
global prices drop,” Iraq Oil Report, 12/3/18
Al Mirbad, “More than 101 million barrels of Iraqi oil
exports during November,” 12/1/18
Parks, TJ, “Oil Prices Drop 22 Percent In November, The
Largest Monthly Percentage Drop In A Decade,” County 17, 12/3/18
Reuters, “Iraq’s southern oil exports at 3.36 million bdp in
November: Ministry,” 12/1/18
Rudaw, “Iraq exported over 260k barrels of Kirkuk oil in
November,” 12/1/18
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