Security In Iraq Dec 8-14, 2018

(Iraqi News)

Iraq reached another low in weekly security incidents from December 8-14, 2018. Since the last week of October the Islamic State has been far less active. Poor weather was one possible cause, but it also appears that the insurgents have cooled off on their own accord after a mini-summer campaign in the center of the country.

There were only 27 reported incidents in Iraq during the second week of December. Baghdad and Diyala led the country with eight incidents each. No province was in double figures. 27 beat the former lowest weekly total, which was 28 from November 22-28. Since the end of October there has been less and less violence in the nation. There has been heavy flooding in much of Iraq for the last few weeks, which was a deterrent to the militants. At the same time it appears that IS pulled back from carrying out attacks on its own accord the last few weeks.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14
Anbar	2	-
Babil	1	-
Baghdad	12	8
Diyala	4	8
Kirkuk	3	4
KRG	7	-
Ninewa	2	5
Qadisiya	-	1
Salahaddin	3	1
TOTALS	34	27

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14
Anbar	2 (2K)	-
Babil	4 (4W)	-
Baghdad	5 (5K)	6 (4K, 2W)
Diyala	2 (1K, 1W)	11 (3K, 8W)
Kirkuk	5 (1K, 4W)	10 (3K, 7W)
KRG	13 (13K)	-
Ninewa	2 (2K)	14 (8K, 6W)
Qadisiya	-	1 (1W)
Salahaddin	4 (2K, 2W)	-
TOTALS	37 (26K, 11W)	42 (18K, 24W)

There were only 42 casualties reported during the week, which was roughly the same as the 37 the week before. There were just 18 fatalities, and 24 wounded. One body was found in the Old City of west Mosul from the battle for the city leaving 17 violent deaths during the week. 1 Peshmerga, 3 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), 7 civilians and 7 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were killed, and 4 ISF, 6 PKK and 14 civilians were injured.

In the previous two months it appeared that the Islamic State was making more serious forays into Anbar, but that has now ended. The number of incidents remained low in the province, but there were more deadly attacks like suicide and car bombs. Since December there have only been two incidents with none during December 8-14.

A similar situation is occurring in Baghdad where there was a jump in incidents, which has since fallen off. There were only 8 incidents during the week, but only one was definitely related to the insurgents. That was when a suicide bomber was intercepted and killed in Tarmiya, a town to the north of the city. A sheikh was also kidnapped in Shula, which is in the northern section of the city that could have been done by IS.

The situation in central Iraq has changed as well. There was a surge of attacks there during the summer that included an uptick in operations such as attacks on checkpoints and villages, kidnappings, and suicide and car bombs. Since then incidents have gone down across Diyala, Kirkuk and Salahaddin, especially in the last province where there is now hardly any attacks. During the week, there were 8 incidents in Diyala, 4 in Kirkuk and just 1 in Salahaddin.

In Diyala, there was a shootout with the security forces, a town was hit by mortar fire, a patrol was ambushed, and a mukhtar’s son was kidnapped. The militants have shifted their focus in Diyala. Before they were hitting the north, center and west. Now, most incidents are occurring in the northeast around the Khanaqin and Jalawla districts. Both areas used to be under Kurdish control, but after the independence referendum, the federal forces have taken over. Both areas lack adequate manpower to protect them and there is a poor coordination between the units that are there. That has opened up opportunities for IS to exploit.

In Kirkuk, there was an assassination attempt on a Badr leader. It was not clear whether that was political violence or an act of IS. There has been a large drop in the governorate since October. The militants have a major presence in the rural south, so the lull in operations appears to be the Islamic State cooling off for the winter.

Finally, in Salahaddin there was a gun battle. There have been few incidents in the last few months. This is despite the fact that IS has bases along the border with Diyala. It looks like the insurgents have pulled back from the province for now like they have in Anbar, Baghdad, and Kirkuk.

The biggest event in Ninewa wasn’t done by the insurgency, but Turkey. On December 13, Turkish artillery hit a PKK target in Makhmour while jets bombed Sinjar. Ankara is routinely carrying out airstrikes against the Kurdish group in northern Kurdistan, but this was different, as the areas are under Iraqi government control. As a result, Baghdad complained to the Turkish ambassador. Turkey rebuffed the Mahdi government and carried out a new series of air raids in Kurdistan on December 15. Iraq has no real means to enforce its sovereignty in these areas. It doesn’t have the air power to patrol its border, especially because the Air Force is committed to hitting the Islamic State. Likewise, it doesn’t have the ground forces to push the PKK out either. Neither Baghdad nor Irbil has any units in the border area with Turkey, and Sinjar is under the control of a mish mash of units. Iraq has repeatedly called for the PKK to leave in the past, but to no avail. All the government can do is complain to Ankara knowing full well that nothing will come of it. 

Islamic State Activity in Anbar 2018

Anbar	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	4	3	2	-	-	1	-	-
Jul	3	5	1	-	-	-	-	-
Aug	4	4	2	1	-	-	-	1
Sep	3	8	-	-	-	-	2	-
Oct	9	5	3	1	1	2	1	1
Nov	1	3	-	-	1	1	-	-
Dec	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018

Diyala	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	20	24	2	7	-	1	-	6	1	1
Feb	14	13	4	3	-	-	-	-	1	-
Mar	29	21	14	5	1	2	1	5	-	-
Apr	13	18	2	2	-	-	-	2	-	-
May	11	11	1	3	1	1	3	4	1	-
Jun	32	17	5	12	-	1	5	4	-	-
Jul	20	19	2	3	-	2	3	1	-	-
Aug	17	18	2	2	1	1	3	3	-	-
Sep	20	12	5	1	-	2	5	5	-	-
Oct	11	22	2	-	1	1	-	4	-	-
Nov	17	13	5	2	1	1	4	4	-	-
Dec	5	5	1	-	-	1	-	2	-	-

Kirkuk	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	13	6	4	1	-	-	-	3	3	1
Feb	21	10	7	3	-	-	-	4	1	-
Mar	22	15	11	2	-	2	1	3	1	1
Apr	18	4	3	1	-	-	8	1	-	1
May	14	28	2	-	2	1	1	4	4	-
Jun	25	12	4	2	-	2	10	6	-	-
Jul	7	20	1	2	-	-	-	-	-	1
Aug	7	20	2	1	2	-	-	2	-	1
Sep	14	25	2	2	1	3	4	2	-	-
Oct	16	29	1	4	4	1	4	2	-	1
Nov	7	7	2	-	-	2	-	1	-	-
Dec	6	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-

Salahaddin	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	11	9	8	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
Feb	7	5	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	-
Mar	23	8	9	2	-	3	-	-	1	-
Apr	6	8	2	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
May	14	10	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	-
Jun	15	15	4	1	-	7	-	-	-	1
Jul	9	6	-	4	-	-	2	1	1	-
Aug	9	15	1	3	-	1	1	1	1	-
Sep	5	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	3	1
Oct	2	9	1	-	-	1	-	1	1	-
Nov	5	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	-	2
Dec	2	-	1	1	-	-	-	-	-	-

Islamic State Activity in Ninewa 2018

Ninewa	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jun	7	2	3	1	-	-	-	-	-
Jul	9	9	1	1	1	1	2	-	-
Aug	9	9	2	-	-	1	1	-	-
Sep	8	3	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
Oct	13	5	-	1	-	1	-	-	1
Nov	9	7	2	1	-	-	3	-	1
Dec	3	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	-

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018

Month	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs	Totals
Jan	7 (1- Diyala, 3 – Baghdad/Baghdad, 3 - Kirkuk)	6 (1- Anbar, 1 – Diyala, 1 – Kirkuk, 1 – Salahaddin, 2 - Babil)	13
Feb	4 (1 – Anbar/Ramadi 1 – Diyala 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	-	4
Mar	2 (1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk 1 - Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	3
Apr	4 (1 - Salahaddin 3 – Anbar)	1 (1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)	5
May	8 (1 – Diyala 1 - Salahaddin) 2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad 4 - Kirkuk)	-	8
Jun		1 (1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)	1
Jul	1 (1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)	1 (1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)	2
Aug	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Anbar, 1 – Kirkuk)	3
Sep	6 (1 – Ninewa) 2 – Anbar 3 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 – Salahaddin)	8
Oct	2 (1 – Anbar/Fallujah 1 – Salahaddin)	3 (1 – Anbar/Fallujah 1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	5
Nov	-	3 (1 – Ninewa/Mosul 2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)	3
Dec	-	-	-

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	71	50	66
Jan 8-14	64	62	70
Jan 15-21	68	156	151
Jan 22-28	68	148	66
Jan 29-31	27	23	22
JAN 2018	298	439 (218 Violent Deaths)	375
Feb 1-7	66	196	67
Feb 8-14	65	63	93
Feb 15-21	59	346	43
Feb 22-28	55	44	72
FEB	245	649 (233 Violent Deaths)	275
Mar 1-7	78	120	84
Mar 8-14	60	84	61
Mar 15-21	67	168	98
Mar 22-28	81	213	61
Mar 29-31	21	26	35
MAR	307	611 (466 Violent Deaths)	339
Apr 1-7	40	174	29
Apr 8-14	64	175	83
Apr 15-21	44	63	72
Apr 22-28	44	62	48
Apr 29-30	12	12	4
APR	204	486 (240 Violent Deaths)	236
May 1-7	51	57	56
May 8-14	56	68	49
May 15-21	39	58	82
May 22-28	51	73	51
May 29-31	21	42	15
MAY	218	298 (273 Violent Deaths)	253
Jun 1-7	55	100	32
Jun 8-14	72	108	88
Jun 15-21	42	83	19
Jun 22-28	52	58	65
Jun 29-30	18	22	14
JUN	239	371 (327 Violent Deaths)	218
Jul 1-7	56	58	91
Jul 8-14	44	57	31
Jul 15-21	54	61	64
Jul 22-28	36	65	21
Jul 29-31	24	26	11
JUL	214	267 (222 Violent Deaths)	218
Aug 1-7	49	57	30
Aug 8-14	47	43	51
Aug 15-21	45	26	45
Aug 22-28	42	29	64
Aug 29-31	33	69	44
AUG	216	224 (209 Violent Deaths)	234
Sep 1-7	45	46	61
Sep 8-14	57	67	127
Sep 15-21	50	93	71
Sep 22-28	47	27	33
Sep 29-30	11	20	29
SEP	210	253 (195 Violent Deaths)	321
Oct 1-7	60	88	94
Oct 8-14	50	169	48
Oct 15-21	56	88	37
Oct 22-28	31	28	54
Oct 29-31	25	10	24
OCT	222	383 (193 Violent Deaths)	257
Nov 1-7	38	80	46
Nov 8-14	42	112	19
Nov 15-21	36	56	29
Nov 22-28	28	37	30
Nov 29-30	11	5	27
NOV	155	290 (197 Violent Deaths)	151
Dec 1-7	34	26	11
Dec 8-14	27	18	24

Violence By Province Dec 8-14, 2018

Province	Violence
Baghdad	8 Incidents 4 Killed 1 ISF 3 Civilians 2 Wounded 2 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 Grenade 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Diyala	8 Incidents 3 Killed 3 ISF 8 Wounded 3 ISF 5 Civilians 3 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Mortar
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 3 Killed 1 Peshmerga 2 Civilians 7 Wounded 7 Civilians 4 Shootings
Ninewa	5 Incidents 8 Killed 2 Civilians 3 ISF 3 PKK 6 Wounded 6 PKK 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Turkish Artillery
Qadisiya	1 Incident 1 Wounded 1 ISF 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	1 Incident 1 Gunfire

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq Summons Turkish Ambassador Over Airstrikes,” 12/14/18

Baghdad Post, "A village was hit by mortar shells northeast of Diyala," 12/11/18

Bas News, "IS Attacks Hashd al-Shaabi in Diyala," 12/10/18

- "IS Attacks Village Chieftain Home near Khanaqin, Kidnaps One," 12/13/18

Al Forat, "Baghdad operations reveal important details of the suicide bomber Tarmiya," 12/13/18

Al Ghad Press, "The popular crowd foils a fierce Daash attack, southeast of Samarra," 12/8/18

- "Three PKK members were killed and six others wounded by Turkish shelling on Mount Kargoug in Makhmour," 12/13/18

- “Turkish fighters bomb areas in the Kurdistan region,” 12/15/18

Hurriyet Daily News, “Turkey vows to continue airstrikes in Iraq after Baghdad’s protest,” 12/15/18

Iraq Newspaper, "The Abduction Of Said Al-Lahibi In Front Of The Al-Furqan Mosque Of Karma Near Shula In Baghdad," 12/14/18

- "The Leader Of The Badr Corps In Kirkuk Survived Assassination By A Miracle," 12/10/18

Al Maalomah, "The body of a girl was found in the rubble of Mosul," 12/8/18

Al Mirbad, "An officer in Diwaniya was injured when his vehicle was hit by a sticky bomb," 12/14/18

NINA, "Four policemen killed and wounded in an armed attack and the explosion of an explosive device northeast of Baquba," 12/11/18