Displaced Returns Become A Trickle In Iraq In 2020

(International Organization for Migration)

Almost two and half years after Iraq’s victory over the Islamic State and the returns of those displaced (IDPs) during the war is almost over. While 4.6 million people have gone back to their home areas there are still 1.3 million IDPs. Over 500,000 of those that have gone back are living in severe conditions as well. This repeats Iraq’s previous experience when during the civil war approximately one million had to settle in new areas after the fighting was over.  

2020 has seen the fewest number of returnees of any period. In February 2020 there were 4,640,404 people who had gone home, up from 4,596,450 in December. That left 1,399,170 IDPs remaining. During that two month period 10,530 were newly displaced. Most of those had gone back to their place of origin and then left again. In total, there were only 15,462 returns from December to February for an average of 7,731 per month. That compared to an average of 32,350 in 2019, and 67,763 in 2018. The main reasons why people have not gone back are the lack of security, services, jobs, and destroyed homes. The government claimed it was going to rebuild the country’s war torn areas and held an international conference to raise money, but the results have been very mixed. Local communities and provinces have done most of the work with Baghdad helping little. In 2018 for instance, it only appropriated 0.5% of its spending on rebuilding. It’s gotten to the point that there are no longer reasons why people will go back and most of the IDPs will have to settle where they are. The same thing happened after the civil war ended in 2008. Over one million people were left displaced mostly because of the demographic changes that occurred during the conflict which the government was unwilling to resolve.  

The International Organization for Migration (IOM), the main agency dealing with IDPs in Iraq also found that a large number of returnees are living under severe conditions. The group surveyed 1,850 locations in Iraq. 327 of them were considered severe. They housed 516,522 people. Salahaddin with 202,218 people and Ninewa with 164,478 had the most returnees living in severe conditions, while Salahaddin at 30% and Diyala at 19% had the highest proportion of people in those types of areas. IOM considers an area severe if it lacks jobs, services, social cohesion, reconciliation and security. This shows that half a million people have gone back to their home areas to find most of the basic necessities of living lacking. They probably have nowhere else to go and have stayed there. Again, the government is to blame for this situation as it has neglected the public once again. Despite Iraq being a democracy the ruling parties have only rarely responded to the needs of the population. That’s because the oil wealth makes the elite not dependent upon the public for taxes. Instead it believes that the people should rely upon them because they control all the wealth. Reconstruction didn’t fit their needs beyond grafting money from contracts, and therefore it has not really happened.  

Total Number of Displaced Oct 2017-February 2020 

Month	Total Displaced	Difference
October 2017	3,174,678
November 2017	2,883,738	-290,940
December 2017	2,615,988	-267,750
February 2018	2,317,698	-298,290  (2 months)
March 2018	2,205,252	-112,446
May 2018	2,045,718	-159,534  (2 months)
Jul 2018	1,953,984	-91,734  (2 months)
August 2018	1,920,456	-33,528
October 2018	1,866,648	-53,808  (2 months)
December 2018	1,802,832	-63,816  (2 months)
February 2019	1,744,980	-57,852  (2 months)
April 2019	1,665,108	-79,872  (2 months)
June 2019	1,607,148	-57,960  (2 months)
September 2019	1,552,914	-54,234  (3 months)
December 2019	1,414,632	-138,282  (3 months)
February 2020	1,399,170	-15,462  (2 months)

Avg 67,763 returns per month 2018 

Avg 32,350 returns per month 2019 

Avg 7,731 returns per month 2020 

Main Provinces With Returns 

Province	Sep 2019
Ninewa	1,785,738
Anbar	1,479,720
Salahaddin	680,946
Kirkuk	340,092
Diyala	230,190
Baghdad	90,072
Irbil	72,878
Dohuk	768

Displaced By Province 

Province	Feb 2020
Ninewa	331,170
Dohuk	318,786
Irbil	237,408
Sulaymaniya	140,304
Kirkuk	99,534
Salahaddin	74,484
Diyala	54,134
Baghdad	38,076
Anbar	36,384
Babil	17,016
Karbala	15,845
Najaf	12,504
Wasit	6,384
Basra	6,528
Qadisiya	3,900
Dhi Qar	3,426
Maysan	2,262
Muthanna	1,026

SOURCES 

International Organization for Migration, “Iraq Master List Report 114, January-February 2020,” March 2020 

International Organization for Migration, RWG Iraq, Social Inquiry, “Return Index, Findings Round Eight – Iraq,” March 2020