MUSINGS ON IRAQ: 2021 Ends Quietly For The Islamic State

2021 ended quietly for the Islamic State. It was in its usual winter break while it was testing new areas of Iraq to operate in. At the same time, pro-Iran Hashd groups ramped up their operations against U.S. targets.

There were a total of 78 security incidents recorded in Iraq in December. That was up from 67 in November. The increase was due to groups aligned with Tehran.

Those left 56 dead and 67 wounded. 6 Hashd al-Shaabi, 14 Peshmerga, 15 civilians and 21 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were killed and 2 Peshmerga, 7 Hashd, 20 civilians and 38 ISF were injured. Diyala had the most casualties with 51 followed by 25 in Salahaddin, 20 in Kirkuk and 19 in Irbil. There were three more provinces in single digits.

There were 21 attacks by pro-Iran groups along with 2 other foiled incidents. That was up from 10 in November and 5 in October. 18 convoys working for the U.S. were bombed across Anbar (2), Babil (6), Baghdad (2), Basra (1), Dhi Qar (1), Diwaniya (5), and Salahaddin (1). Two other IEDs were dismantled in Babil. Rockets were also fired at Baghdad’s Green Zone and a Turkish army base in Ninewa. Finally, a death squad connected to these factions set off a motorcycle bomb in Basra which left 8 casualties which was aimed at an intelligence officer investigating their activities. This was the latest example that these groups are willing to use terrorism and kill Iraqis to achieve their goals.

There were 55 attacks by the Islamic State in December, the same amount as November. Those occurred in Babil (2), Diyala (27), Irbil (5), Kirkuk (9), Ninewa (6), and Salahaddin (6).

Anbar and Ninewa are way stations in smuggling routes between Syria and Iraq. IS routinely moves men and their families across the border into Iraq. That means there are few incidents in either provinces month to month.

Babil remained a target of opportunity for the insurgency. It routinely targets the Jurf al-Sakhr district in the northeast which is a Kataib Hezbollah base surrounded by army units. There were two IEDs there which left 2 Hashd dead and wounded.

Baghdad is no longer a priority for the Islamic State. The group hit the capital during its summer campaign but after that attacks dramatically dropped off to none in December.

Violence widely fluctuates in Kirkuk and Salahaddin where IS is more focused upon rebuilding. Most attacks in the two provinces are aimed at keeping civilians and the security forces out of militant areas.

Diyala remains the center of IS activity in the country. Just like Kirkuk and Salahaddin however most incidents are focused upon protecting its bases in the Muqdadiya and Khanaqin districts in the center and northeast. Those two areas accounted for 14 of the 27 incidents in the province during the month. In the last month or two IS has also been active in the northeast along the Salahaddin border. There were 7 attacks there.

Finally, the insurgents were testing security in Irbil during the month. It attacked two villages and had two confrontations with the ISF in the southern part of the governorate. In November IS was assaulting Sulaymaniya. Despite the insurgency being at its lowest level since 2003 these incidents show that the Islamic State is still planning its comeback by probing new areas it can operate in.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14	Dec 15-21	Dec 22-28	Dec 29-31	Totals
Anbar	-	-	1 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	3 Pro-Iran
Babil	-	3/2 Pro-Iran	3/2 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	-	7/5 Pro-Iran
Baghdad	-	-	-	2 Pro-Iran	-	3 Pro-Iran
Basra	1 Pro-Iran	-	1 Pro-Iran	-	-	2 Pro-Iran
Dhi Qar	-	1 Pro-Iran		-	-	1 Pro-Iran
Diwaniya	1 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	3 Pro-Iran	2 Pro-Iran	-	7 Pro-Iran
Diyala	6	4	7	4	6	27
Irbil	2	-	3	-	-	5
Kirkuk	5	2	-	2	-	9
Ninewa	1	2	1	3/1 Pro-Iran	-	7/1 Pro-Iran
Salahaddin	1	1	2	3/1 Pro-Iran	-	7/1 Pro-Iran
TOTAL	17/2 Pro-Iran	14/4 Pro-Iran	22/8 Pro-Iran	18/8 Pro-Iran	7/1 Pro-Iran	78/23 Pro-Iran

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14	Dec 15-21	Dec 22-28	Dec 29-31	Totals
Babil	-	1 (1K)	1 (1W)	-	-	2 (1K, 1W)
Basra	8 (4K, 4W)	-	-	-	-	8 (4K, 4W)
Diyala	4 (2K, 2W)	1 (1K)	14 (7K, 7W)	23 (5K, 18W)	9 (5K, 4W)	51 (20K, 31W)
Irbil	18 (13K, 5W)	-	1 (1W)	-	-	19 (13K, 6W)
Kirkuk	17 (9K, 8W)	2 (2W)	-	1 (1K)	-	20 (10K, 10W)
Ninewa	1 (1W)	3 (1K, 2W)	1 (1W)	1 (1W)	-	6 (1K, 5W)
Salahaddin	3 (1K, 2W)	3 (1K, 2W)	6 (4K, 2W)	13 (5K, 8W)	-	25 (11K, 14W)
TOTAL	51 (29K, 22W)	10 (4K, 6W)	23 (11K, 12W)	38 (11K, 27W)	9 (5K, 4W)	123 (56K, 67W)

	October Totals – 5 (1)
11/7/21	Drone Strike – PM Kazemi’s residence – 6 Wounded
	Rockets – Turkish military base, Bashiqa, Ninewa
11/9/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Diwaniya
11/16/21	IED dismantled – Babil
	Rockets – Turkish military base, Bavian, Ninewa
11/19/21	Rockets dismantled Ninewa
	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar
11/22/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya
11/25/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Basra
11/28/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya, Muthanna
11/30/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil
	November Totals – 10 (2) – 6 Wounded
12/5/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya
12/7/21	Motorcycle Bomb ISF – 4 killed, 4 Wounded
12/9/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil
12/12/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya
12/16/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, IED dismantled - Babil
12/18/21	IED dismantled - Babil
12/19/21	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Anbar
12/21/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Basra, Diwaniya
12/22/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad
12/23/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Salahaddin
12/26/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad, Diwaniya
12/27/21	Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa
	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya
12/28/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Anbar
12/29/21	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Anbar
	December Totals 21 (2) – 4 Killed, 4 Wounded

Security In Iraq 2021

Week	Security Incidents (Total/By IS)	Dead (Total/By IS)	Wounded (Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7	21/2	13	19
Jan 8-14	17/3	12	6
Jan 15-21	20/3	52	133
Jan 22-28	10/3	13	12
Jan 29-31	9/1	2	6
JAN	77/13	92	176
Feb 1-7	19/2	11	23
Feb 8-14	11/3	4	8
Feb 15-21	20/7	11	23
Feb 22-28	13/4	13	23
FEB	63/16	39	77
Mar 1-7	19/5	5	8
Mar 8-14	12/2	13	15
Mar 15-21	24/6	8	7
Mar 22-28	14/2	8	13
Mar 29-31	9/5	2	1
MAR	79/20	39	44
Apr 1-7	16/10	3	5
Apr 8-14	15/6	6	18
Apr 15-21	32/4	19	44
Apr 22-28	31/6	15	42
Apr 29-30	12/1	11	23
APR	107/27	54	132
May 1-7	36/8	33	37
May 8-14	31/5	14	25
May 15-21	15/2	3	3
May 22-28	20/9	3	24
May 29-31	11	6	11
MAY	113/24	59	100
Jun 1-7	12/5	6	29
Jun 8-14	22/10	7	7
Jun 15-21	24/4	14	14
Jun 22-28	19/2	10	17
Jun 29-30	5	-	21
JUN	83/21	36	87
Jul 1-7	38/9	11	35
Jul 8-14	25/4	7	17
Jul 15-21	20/1	48	75
Jul 22-28	10/1	10	7
Jul 29-31	16/5	30	30
JUL	110/20	106	164
Aug 1-7	44/5	12	19
Aug 8-14	31/6	17	23
Aug 15-21	25/8	12	18
Aug 22-28	21/9	8	10
Aug 29-31	12/2	5	12
AUG	133/30	54	82
Sep 1-7	21/3	12	24
Sep 8-14	28/3	24	36
Sep 15-21	13/1	5	17
Sep 22-28	17/4	13	9
Sep 29-30	2	-	-
SEP	81/11	54	86
Oct 1-7	17	11	22
Oct 8-14	14/1	4	13
Oct 15-21	9/2	3	2
Oct 22-28	21/1/1	36	42
Oct 29-31	11/1	7	7
OCT	72/6/1	61	86
Nov 1-7	20/2	3	20
Nov 8-14	15/1	11	18
Nov 15-21	14/4	2	4
Nov 22-28	15/4	10	14
Nov 29-30	3/1	1	3
NOV	67/12	27	59
Dec 1-7	17/2	29	22
Dec 8-14	14/4	4	6
Dec 15-21	22/8	11	12
Dec 22-28	18/8	11	27
Dec 29-31	7/1	5	4
DEC	78/23	56	67

Violence By Province Dec 2021

Province	Violence	2018 Avg	2019 Avg	2020 Avg	2021 Avg
Anbar	3 Pro-Iran Incidents 3 IED	12.6 incidents/ month	8.6 incidents/ month	7.0 incidents/ month	4.6 incidents/ month
Babil	7/5 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 Killed 1 Hashd 1 Wounded 1 Hashd 7 IEDs	4.0 incidents/month	3.0 incidents/month	2.75 incidents/month	2.5 incidents/month
Baghdad	3 Pro-Iran Incidents 2 IEDs 1 Rockets	33.0 incidents/month	11.6 incidents/month	7.3 incidents/month	5.6 incidents/ month
Dhi Qar	1 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 IED
Diwaniya	7 Pro-Iran Incidents 7 IEDs
Diyala	27 Incidents 20 Killed 2 Hashd 7 Civilians 11 ISF 21 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	34.5 incidents/month	30.0 incidents/month	30.6 incidents/month	22.8 incidents/month
Irbil	5 Incidents 13 Killed 3 Civilians 10 Peshmerga 6 Wounded 1 ISF 5 Civilians 5 Shootings
Kirkuk	9 Incidents 10 Killed 2 Civilians 4 Peshmerga 4 ISF 10 Wounded 2 Peshmerga 4 Civilians 4 ISF 7 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Rockets	36.5 incidents/month	18.6 incidents/month	13.9 incidents/month	11.6 incidents/month
Ninewa	7/1 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 Killed 1 Civilian 5 Wounded 5 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Mortar 2 Rockets	20.0 incidents/month	14.0 incidents/month	10.6 incidents/month	8.4 incidents/month
Salahaddin	7/1 Pro-Iran Incidents 11 Killed 2 Civilians 3 Hashd 6 ISF 14 Wounded 4 Civilians 4 Hashd 6 ISF 6 Shootings 1 IED	21.7 incidents/month	10.6 incidents/month	11.2 incidents/month	11.5 incidents/month

SOURCES

Asharaq Al-Awsat, "Officials: Civilians Among 10 Dead In Iraq Attack Blamed on ISIS," 12/3/21

Bas News, "IS Attacks Two Villages in Makhmour, Kills Three Civilians," 12/2/21

NRT, "At Least Four Killed In ISIS Attack On Village Southwest Of Erbil," 12/3/21

- "At Least Four People Killed In Bomb Blast Near Basra Hospital," 12/7/21

- "One Injured After ISIS Militants Attack Iraqi Army Near Qarachokh Mountains," 12/19/21

- "Two Katyusha Rockets Target Green Zone In Baghdad," 12/19/21

Al Sumaria, "An attack targeting a Turkish army base in Ninewa," 12/27/21

2021 Ends Quietly For The Islamic State