Monday, December 6, 2021

Violence Continues Its Winter Decline In Iraq


Since 2003 insurgent violence has almost always declined in Iraq during the winter. This year is no different as Islamic State attacks have gone down for three straight months. On the other hand, pro-Iran groups are increasing their operations against U.S. targets once again as December is the deadline for American combat troops to leave the country and these factions want to show that they are still opposed to their presence.

 

There were a total of 67 incidents reported in the media in November. That was down from 72 in October, 81 in September and 133 in August.

 

Those led to 27 deaths and 59 wounded. 6 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 6 Peshmerga, 7 civilians, and 8 Hashd al-Shaabi were killed while 7 Peshmerga, 9 Hashd, 20 ISF and 23 civilians were injured. Diyala had the most casualties with 27. Three other provinces were in double digits with Kirkuk at 12, Sulaymaniya with 13 and Salahaddin with 17.


 

There were 12 incidents by pro-Iran groups. An IED and rockets were dismantled and destroyed in Babil and Ninewa respectively. Missiles were launched at two Turkish military bases in Ninewa, and seven convoys working with the U.S. were hit by IEDs in Babil, Basra, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya three times and Muthanna. The biggest incident however was when one of these factions launched a drone strike upon Prime Minister Kazemi’s home in Baghdad wounding him and five of his bodyguards. This happened after an Asaib Ahl Al-Haq brigade commander was killed as part of a mob trying to storm the Green Zone.

 

The Islamic State was responsible for 55 incidents during the month. Those were in Anbar (3), Babil (3), Baghdad (1), Diyala (18), Kirkuk (8), Ninewa (8), Salahaddin (9), and Sulaymaniya (5).



 

Anbar and Babil remained sideshows for the insurgency. Almost all the incidents were IEDs and shootings along with three people being kidnapped in the Rutba district of Anbar likely for ransom to raise money. Anbar is used to bring in men and supplies from Syria while Babil is simply a target of opportunity.


 

Ninewa is usually in that same boat but there was a change in November. Yes there were several IEDs but IS also carried out two attacks upon the Hashd in Hatra in the southern part of the province. The group is either trying to move into the area and assert de facto control or wants the Hashd to stay out.



 

Attacks in Kirkuk and Salahaddin are constantly fluctuating. The two biggest incidents in the former were when an army base was hit with mortars and another confrontation that also involved mortar fire. In Salahaddin there was a large gun battle with the security forces that involved the Iraqi Air Force bombing the area. The Islamic State has major bases in both governorates but is more interested in rebuilding and protecting its leadership rather than using its resources to carry out attacks.


 

Diyala had the most attacks as usual. Previously IS was hitting the northwest area along the border with Salahaddin but that appears to be over. During November most attacks were in Muqdadiya and Khanaqin in the center and northeast which are where the group has de facto control. These incidents are meant to keep civilians and the security forces out of the areas where IS has bases and is trying to recover.

 

Despite the insurgency being at its lowest level since 2003 there are signs that IS is attempting to expand. In September the group was attacking southern Irbil. In November it was hitting Sulaymaniya. It carried out three attacks upon the peshmerga there. The goal appears to be testing security to see if the group can expand into new provinces.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Nov 1-7

Nov 8-14

Nov 15-21

Nov 22-28

Nov 29-30

Totals

Anbar

1

1

1

-

-

3

Babil

2

-

2/1 Pro-Iran

-

1 Pro-Iran

5/2 Pro-Iran

Baghdad

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

1

-

2/1 Pro-Iran

Basra

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

1 Pro-Iran

Dhi Qar

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Diwaniya

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

2 Pro-Iran

-

3 Pro-Iran

Diyala

6

3

4

5

-

18

Kirkuk

4

3

1

-

-

8

Muthanna

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

1 Pro-Iran

Ninewa

3/1 Pro-Iran

3

3/2 Pro-Iran

2

-

11/3 Pro-Iran

Salahaddin

1

4

2

1

1

9

Sulaymaniya

2

-

-

2

1

5

TOTAL

20/2 Pro-Iran

15/1 Pro-Iran

14/4 Pro-Iran

15/4 Pro-Iran

3/1 Pro-Iran

67/12 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Nov 1-7

Nov 8-14

Nov 15-21

Nov 22-28

Nov 29-30

Totals

Anbar

4 (4W)

-

-

-

-

4 (4W)

Babil

1 (1K)

-

-

-

-

1 (1K)

Baghdad

6 (6W)

-

-

-

-

6 (6W)

Diyala

7 (1K, 6W)

3 (1K, 2W)

5 (2K, 3W)

12 (4K, 8W)

-

27 (8K, 19W)

Kirkuk

-

12 (3K, 9W)

-

-

-

12 (3K, 9W)

Ninewa

2 (2W)

1 (1K)

1 (1W)

2 (2W)

-

6 (1K, 5W)

Salahaddin

3 (1K, 2W)

13 (6K, 7W)

-

1 (1K)

-

17 (8K, 9W)

Sulaymaniya

-

-

-

9 (5K, 4W)

4 (1K, 3W)

13 (6K, 7W)

TOTAL

23 (3K, 20W)

29 (11K, 18W)

6 (2K, 4W)

24 (10K, 14W)

4 (1K, 3W)

86 (27K, 59W)

 

 

September Totals – 11

10/13/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra

10/19/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

10/21/21

3 IEDs dismantled – Babil

10/22/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

10/28/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad

10/31/21

Rockets – Landed in Mansour, Baghdad

 

October Totals – 5 (1)

11/7/21

Drone Strike – PM Kazemi’s residence – 6 Wounded

 

Rockets – Turkish military base, Bashiqa, Ninewa

11/9/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Diwaniya

11/16/21

IED dismantled – Babil

 

Rockets – Turkish military base, Bavian, Ninewa

11/19/21

Rockets dismantled Ninewa

 

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

11/22/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya

11/25/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Basra

11/28/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya, Muthanna

11/30/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil

 

November Totals – 10 (2) – 6 Wounded

 

Security In Iraq 2021

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

21/2

13

19

Jan 8-14

17/3

12

6

Jan 15-21

20/3

52

133

Jan 22-28

10/3

13

12

Jan 29-31

9/1

2

6

JAN

77/13

92

176

Feb 1-7

19/2

11

23

Feb 8-14

11/3

4

8

Feb 15-21

20/7

11

23

Feb 22-28

13/4

13

23

FEB

63/16

39

77

Mar 1-7

19/5

5

8

Mar 8-14

12/2

13

15

Mar 15-21

24/6

8

7

Mar 22-28

14/2

8

13

Mar 29-31

9/5

2

1

MAR

79/20

39

44

Apr 1-7

16/10

3

5

Apr 8-14

15/6

6

18

Apr 15-21

32/4

19

44

Apr 22-28

31/6

15

42

Apr 29-30

12/1

11

23

APR

107/27

54

132

May 1-7

36/8

33

37

May 8-14

31/5

14

25

May 15-21

15/2

3

3

May 22-28

20/9

3

24

May 29-31

11

6

11

MAY

113/24

59

100

Jun 1-7

12/5

6

29

Jun 8-14

22/10

7

7

Jun 15-21

24/4

14

14

Jun 22-28

19/2

10

17

Jun 29-30

5

-

21

JUN

83/21

36

87

Jul 1-7

38/9

11

35

Jul 8-14

25/4

7

17

Jul 15-21

20/1

48

75

Jul 22-28

10/1

10

7

Jul 29-31

16/5

30

30

JUL

110/20

106

164

Aug 1-7

44/5

12

19

Aug 8-14

31/6

17

23

Aug 15-21

25/8

12

18

Aug 22-28

21/9

8

10

Aug 29-31

12/2

5

12

AUG

133/30

54

82

Sep 1-7

21/3

12

24

Sep 8-14

28/3

24

36

Sep 15-21

13/1

5

17

Sep 22-28

17/4

13

9

Sep 29-30

2

-

-

SEP

81/11

54

86

Oct 1-7

17

11

22

Oct 8-14

14/1

4

13

Oct 15-21

9/2

3

2

Oct 22-28

21/1/1

36

42

Oct 29-31

11/1

7

7

OCT

72/6/1

61

86

Nov 1-7

20/2

3

20

Nov 8-14

15/1

11

18

Nov 15-21

14/4

2

4

Nov 22-28

15/4

10

14

Nov 29-30

3/1

1

3

NOV

67/12

27

59

 

Violence By Province Nov, 2021

Province

Violence

2018 Avg

2019 Avg

2020 Avg

2021 Avg

Anbar

3 Incidents

4 Wounded

4 ISF

 

1 Shooting

1 IED

12.6 incidents/

month

8.6 incidents/ month

7.0 incidents/ month

5.3 incidents/ month

Babil

5/2 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Hashd

 

1 Shooting

6 IEDs

4.0 incidents/month

3.0 incidents/month

2.75 incidents/month

2.6 incidents/month

Baghdad

2/1 Pro-Iran Incidents

6 Wounded

6 Civilians

 

1 Drones

33.0 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

7.3 incidents/month

6.7 incidents/ month

Basra

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

Dhi Qar

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

Diwaniya

3 Pro-Iran Incident

 

3 IEDs

 

 

 

 

Diyala

18 Incidents

8 Killed

2 Civilians

2 Hashd

4 ISF

19 Wounded

2 Hashd

5 Civilians

12 ISF

 

13 Shootings

3 IEDs

2 Mortars

34.5 incidents/month

30.0 incidents/month

30.6 incidents/month

22.9 incidents/month

Kirkuk

8 Incidents

3 Killed

1 ISF

2 Hashd

9 Wounded

4 ISF

5 Hashd

 

2 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Mortar

2 Suicide Bombers Killed

36.5 incidents/month

18.6 incidents/month

13.9 incidents/month

12.3 incidents/month

Muthanna

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

Ninewa

11/3 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Civilian

5 Wounded

5 Civilians

 

4 Shootings

5 IEDs

3 Rockets

20.0 incidents/month

14.0 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

8.7 incidents/month

Salahaddin

9 Incidents

8 Killed

1 ISF

3 Hashd

4 Civilians

9 Wounded

2 Hashd

7 Civilians

 

7 Shootings

1 IED

21.7 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

11.2 incidents/month

12.3 incidents/month

Sulaymaniya

5 Incidents

6 Killed

6 Peshmerga

7 Wounded

7 Peshmerga

 

4 Shootings

1 IED

 

 

 

 

 

SOURCES

 

Bas News, "Bomb Blast Hits Convoy Carrying Coalition Logistic Supplies in South of Iraq," 11/22/21

- Rockets Fired at Turkish Base near Mosul," 11/7/21

 

Mahmoud, Sinan, “Iraqi PM Al Kadhimi escapes drone assassination attempt in Baghdad,” The National, 11/7/21

 

NINA, "Federal Police and Popular Mobilization Forces Repel An ISIS Attack South of Kirkuk," 11/4/21

- "ISIS Kidnaps 3 Shepherds In Al-Rutba, Anbar," 11/20/21

- "A logistical convoy of the Iraqi forces was exposed to an explosive device explosion in Diwaniyah," 11/28/21

- "The Popular Mobilization Forces repel an ISIS attack in Nineveh," 11/17/21

 

NRT, "Three Rockets Fired At Turkish Base In Nineveh: Local Official," 11/16/21

 

Shafaq News, "A bombing targets the logistics support of the coalition in the far south of Iraq," 11/25/21

- "An explosion targeting the international coalition in southern Iraq," 11/19/21

Shafaq News, -9/21

- "An explosion targets an Iraqi convoy carrying equipment for the International Coalition in Al-Muthanna," 11/28/21

- "An explosion targets logistical support for the International Coalition in Babil," 11/30/21

- "Kirkuk .. A mortar attack on the headquarters of the Iraqi army," 11/5/21

- "With the intervention of warplanes .. Amerli clashes ended with 7 casualties and injures," 11/10/21

 

Sotaliraq, "Ninewa: The missile launchers were aimed at the camp of the Turkish forces, and we do not want useless proxy wars," 11/19/21

 

Al Sumaria, "Dismantling an explosive device prepared to target the logistical support in Babil - Urgent," 11/16/21

- "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi announces the repulsion of ISIS attack south of Mosul," 11/13/21

 

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