Islamic State Returns To Baghdad While Overall Security In Iraq Remains Steady

(Shafaaq News)

Overall security in Iraq has been unchanged since April 2018. However there has been a shift in Islamic State targets and a return of suicide and car bombs in September.

There was an average of 7.0 incidents per day in September, which matches the figure for April to September. For the third month Baghdad led the country in incidents with 65.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province August-September 2018

Province	August	September
Anbar	11	17
Babil	3	5
Baghdad	58	65
Basra	4	4
Diyala	44	36
Dohuk	1	-
Irbil	1	1
Karbala	1	-
Kirkuk	32	31
KRG	7	11
Muthanna	1	-
Najaf	-	-
Ninewa	27	18
Qadisiya	-	-
Salahaddin	25	21
Sulaymaniya	1	1

Casualties In Iraq By Province August-September 2018

Province	August	September
Anbar	70 (32 K, 38 W)	52 (15 K, 37 W)
Babil	6 (6 W)	9 (4 K, 5 W)
Baghdad	86 (32 K, 54 W)	101 (31 K, 70 W)
Basra	2 (1 K, 1 W)	2 (1 K, 1 W)
Diyala	49 (19 K, 30 W)	50 (17 K, 33 W)
Dohuk	1 (1 K)	-
Irbil	-	3 (3 K)
Kirkuk	39 (13 K, 26 W)	60 (33 K, 27 W)
KRG	32 (30 K, 2 W)	38 (34 K, 4 W)
Muthanna	1 (1 W)	-
Ninewa	69 (51 K, 18 W)	98 (77 K, 21 W)
Salahaddin	103 (45 K, 58 W)	100 (24 K, 76 W)

There were 253 deaths and 321 wounded in September. 58 bodies were uncovered from the rubble in Mosul during the month, just over one year after the city was liberated. That left 195 violent deaths, 144 of which were due to the insurgency.

1 Turkish soldiers, 6 Peshmerga, 14 Hashd al-Shaabi, 14 Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, 36 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), 49 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 133 civilians lost their lives. Another 4 Turkish soldiers, 32 Hashd, 45 ISF, 47 PDKI, and 193 civilians were injured.

The insurgents appear to be returning to some of their old haunts. For the last two months, incidents have been going up in Anbar from an average of 0.2 per day in July to 0.3 to 0.5 in September. Those are still miniscule figures, but the types of attacks changed as well. For example, there were two suicide bombings in the province, the first since April. It is yet to be seen whether this is a real change or not.

Another worrisome trend is an increase in violence in Baghdad. Since June incidents have slowly climbed back up from an average of 1.1 to 1.5 in July to 1.8 in August and 2.1 in September. These attacks remain routine such as shootings and IEDs, and are mostly concentrated in the outer southern and northern regions of the province. Still, IS attempting to penetrate the largest urban area of the country is not a good sign.

In the middle of the year there was a surge of attacks in central Iraq, but that has since fallen off. In Diyala, incidents reached 1.7 per day in June only to see them fall since to 1.2 in September. In Kirkuk, there were 1.8 incidents in June before dropping to 1.0 in August and September. Likewise, in Salahaddin there were 1.4 incidents in June, but then 0.7-0.8 from July to September. That doesn’t mean IS has fallen off in its rebuilding. Rather there are more and more reports of people fleeing villages in rural areas such as the Khanaqin district in northeast Diyala, towns being attacked, taxes being collected, areas being no go zones for the security forces at night, and militants openly being seen during the day. This is despite constant sweeps by the security forces, but they have been largely ineffective. The main problem is that there is not much government presence in many of these rural areas, and the population is getting intimidated and not providing good intelligence.

Islamic State Activity in Central Iraq 2018

Diyala	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	20	24	2	7	-	1	-	6	1	1
Feb	14	13	4	3	-	-	-	-	1	-
Mar	29	21	14	5	1	2	1	5	-	-
Apr	13	18	2	2	-	-	-	2	-	-
May	11	11	1	3	1	1	3	4	1	-
Jun	32	17	5	12	-	1	5	4	-	-
Jul	20	19	2	3	-	2	3	1	-	-
Aug	17	18	2	2	1	1	3	3	-	-
Sep	20	12	5	1	-	2	5	5	-	-

Kirkuk	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars/ Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	13	6	4	1	-	-	-	3	3	1
Feb	21	10	7	3	-	-	-	4	1	-
Mar	22	15	11	2	-	2	1	3	1	1
Apr	18	4	3	1	-	-	8	1	-	1
May	14	28	2	-	2	1	1	4	4	-
Jun	25	12	4	2	-	2	10	6	-	-
Jul	7	20	1	2	-	-	-	-	-	1
Aug	7	20	2	1	2	-	-	2	-	1
Sep	14	25	2	2	1	3	4	2	-	-

Salahaddin	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Mortars/ Rockets	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	11	9	8	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
Feb	7	5	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	-
Mar	23	8	9	2	-	3	-	-	1	-
Apr	6	8	2	2	-	-	-	-	1	-
May	14	10	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	-
Jun	15	15	4	1	-	7	-	-	-	1
Jul	9	6	-	4	-	-	2	1	1	-
Aug	9	15	1	3	-	1	1	1	1	-
Sep	5	10	1	1	-	-	1	1	3	1

(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Incidents continued to fall off in Ninewa. In January there was an average of 1.1 incidents per day, but since April there has been less than one per day with just 0.4 in September. There are some infiltration attempts from Syria and attacks upon local officials, but this governorate is no longer a main front.

Along with the renewed incidents in Anbar and Baghdad, the Islamic State also restarted mass casualty bombings. In September there were 8 suicide and car bombs, the most since May. Before that there were only 1 in June 2 in July and 3 in August. These all occurred in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin. It is another sign that IS is becoming bolder and regrouping.

Kurdistan had a total of 13 incidents. In Sulaymaniya, Iran hit the headquarters of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan leaving 61 casualties. Turkey had 10 air strikes killing 37 PKK members. An IED planted by that group left 1 Turkish soldier dead and 4 wounded. Tehran has been targeting Kurdish groups off and on for several weeks now. Ankara on the other hand, has been striking the PKK nearly every week.

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018

Month	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs	Totals
Jan	7 (1- Diyala, 3 – Baghdad, 3 - Kirkuk)	6 (1- Anbar, 1 – Diyala, 1 – Kirkuk, 1 – Salahaddin, 2 - Babil)	13
Feb	4 (1 – Anbar 1 – Diyala 1 – Kirkuk 1 - Ninewa)	-	4
Mar	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 - Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	3
Apr	4 (1 - Salahaddin 3 – Anbar)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	5
May	8 (1 – Diyala 1 - Salahaddin) 2 – Baghdad 4 - Kirkuk)	-	8
Jun		1 (1 – Salahaddin)	1
Jul	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	1 (1 – Kirkuk)	2
Aug	1 (1 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Anbar, 1 – Kirkuk)	3
Sep	6 (1 – Ninewa) 2 – Anbar 3 – Salahaddin)	2 (1 – Kirkuk 1 – Salahaddin)	8

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	71	50	66
Jan 8-14	64	62	70
Jan 15-21	68	156	151
Jan 22-28	68	148	66
Jan 29-31	27	23	22
JAN 2018	298	439 (218 Violent Deaths)	375
Feb 1-7	66	196	67
Feb 8-14	65	63	93
Feb 15-21	59	346	43
Feb 22-28	55	44	72
FEB	245	649 (233 Violent Deaths)	275
Mar 1-7	78	120	84
Mar 8-14	60	84	61
Mar 15-21	67	168	98
Mar 22-28	81	213	61
Mar 29-31	21	26	35
MAR	307	611 (466 Violent Deaths)	339
Apr 1-7	40	174	29
Apr 8-14	64	175	83
Apr 15-21	44	63	72
Apr 22-28	44	62	48
Apr 29-30	12	12	4
APR	204	486 (240 Violent Deaths)	236
May 1-7	51	57	56
May 8-14	56	68	49
May 15-21	39	58	82
May 22-28	51	73	51
May 29-31	21	42	15
MAY	218	298 (273 Violent Deaths)	253
Jun 1-7	55	100	32
Jun 8-14	72	108	88
Jun 15-21	42	83	19
Jun 22-28	52	58	65
Jun 29-30	18	22	14
JUN	239	371 (327 Violent Deaths)	218
Jul 1-7	56	58	91
Jul 8-14	44	57	31
Jul 15-21	54	61	64
Jul 22-28	36	65	21
Jul 29-31	24	26	11
JUL	214	267 (222 Violent Deaths)	218
Aug 1-7	49	57	30
Aug 8-14	47	43	51
Aug 15-21	45	26	45
Aug 22-28	42	29	64
Aug 29-31	33	69	44
AUG	216	224 (209 Violent Deaths)	234
Sep 1-7	45	46	61
Sep 8-14	57	67	127
Sep 15-21	50	93	71
Sep 22-28	47	27	33
Sep 29-30	11	20	29
SEP	210	253 (195 Violent Deaths)	321

Violence By Province September 2018

Province	Violence
Anbar	17 Incidents 15 Killed 2 Hashd 6 Civilians 7 ISF 37 Wounded 12 ISF 25 Civilians 3 Shootings 8 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 2 Grenades 1 Suicide Bomber Killed 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	5 Incidents 4 Killed 1 Hashd 3 Civilians 5 Wounded 5 Hashd 3 Shootings 2 IEDs
Baghdad	65 Incidents 31 Killed 31 Civilians 70 Wounded 2 ISF 68 Civilians 24 Shootings 17 IEDs 7 Sticky Bombs 4 Sound Bombs 3 Grenades
Basra	4 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Civilian 1 Wounded 1 Civilian 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Mortar 1 Rocket
Diyala	36 Incidents 17 Killed 1 ISF 3 Peshmerga 4 Hashd 9 Civilians
Irbil	1 Incident 3 Killed 3 PKK 1 Turkish Air Strike
Kirkuk	31 Incidents 33 Killed 3 Hashd 3 Peshmerga 11 ISF 16 Civilians 27 Wounded 9 Civilians 18 ISF 12 Shootings 21 IEDs 1 Rocket 1 Mortar 1 Car Bomb
Kurdistan	11 Incidents 34 Killed 1 Turkish Soldier 33 PKK 4 Wounded 4 Turkish Soldiers 1 IED 9 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	18 Incidents 77 Killed 1 Hashd 28 ISF 48 Civilians 21 Wounded 4 Hashd 8 ISF 9 Civilians 8 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Salahaddin	21 Incidents 24 Killed 2 ISF 3 Hashd 19 Civilians 76 Wounded 2 ISF 13 Hashd 61 Civilians 5 Shootings 9 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 3 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Rockets 3 Suicide Bombers Arrested 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 14 Killed 14 PDKI 47 Wounded 47 PDKI 1 Iranian Shelling