Violence In Iraq, Jan 1-21, 2017

In the first three weeks of January the Mosul campaign was the main driver of violence and casualties in Iraq. From January 1-21 there were 488 incidents reported in the press. Of those, 236 were in Ninewa, or 48% of the total. Those incidents led to 1,398 deaths and 3,654 wounded. 950 of the fatalities, 67%, and 2,919 of the injured, 79%, were from the Battle for Mosul. Baghdad used to be the center of attacks in the country, but those have been cut in half since Mosul started. In September 2016 there were an average of 10.8 incidents per day, which dropped to 4.7 by December. That’s slightly up to 5.8 per day in the first twenty-one days of January.

On January 5, a new, but short-lived campaign in west Anbar was launched. The stated goal was to liberate the last towns in the province along the Syrian border. Al Mada quickly pointed out that this was not all that it was cut out to be as Prime Minister Haider Abadi didn’t officially announce it. It also noted that the United States had opposed previous operations because it didn’t want to interfere with the Mosul campaign. In November for example, Baghdad wanted to push on western Anbar, but the Americans intervened. The campaign only lasted around two weeks. A tribal leader told Al Mada, that it would not restart until Mosul was freed. In total around 11 villages were taken, and the Islamic State did not put up much of a fight for them.

While incidents have gone down in Baghdad, mass casualty bombings are up. When the government launched the Mosul operation in October, the Islamic State countered with a car bomb campaign in the capital. In September there were 2 successful vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in the capital with 2 more dismantled or destroyed. In October that went up to 4 bombings, then 7 in November, 9 in December, and then 13 so far in the first three weeks of January. A member of the Baghdad security committee accused the security forces of taking bribes from IS to allow their bombers through checkpoints. This has been true for years. This also coincided with the government deciding to take down concrete barriers and checkpoints in sections of the capital at the end of December. Baghdad Governor Ali al-Tamimi promised surveillance cameras and other forms of electronic security measures, but that has not materialized. Given the inability of checkpoints to stop previous bombings it’s unclear whether their removal really had any effect. IS has also changed its tactics. It is reportedly moving from the residential areas to the suburbs and moving assets around to try to prevent them from being discovered.

Car Bombs In Baghdad January 2016-January 21, 2017

Month	Car Bombs
Jan 2016	3
Feb	1
Mar	0
Apr	8
May	13
Jun	1
Jul	4
Aug	3
Sep	2
Oct	4
Nov	7
Dec	9
Jan 1-21, 2017	13

Diyala is one of the provinces where IS is re-organizing and ramping up its operations. From January 1-21 there have been 33 incidents for an average of 1.5 per day. In October 2016 there were 1.4 incidents per day, but that went down to 0.9 in November and 0.8 in December. These have included temporary seizing of towns, attacks on checkpoints, suicide bombings, and car bombs. Before most of the attacks were small shootings and IEDs with regular mass casualty bombings. Now Diyala is seeing large numbers of IS fighters in bigger operations. A Diyala parliamentarian from the Supreme Council called on the prime minister to open an investigation into the security failures, and blamed commanders for negligence. Badr head Hadi Ameri is in charge of security in the province with the Iraqi forces in a support role to his Hashd units.

In Kirkuk the Islamic State has one of its last strongholds in Hawija. The provincial government is increasingly calling on Abadi to free the area, but with Mosul going on that’s not going to happen right now. Hawija is turning out to be a major source of instability not only in Kirkuk but neighboring governorates as well. Cells from Hawija have been blamed for carrying out attacks in Salahaddin for example. There are constant reports of executions within the district, and displaced people being killed trying to escape.

Along with Diyala, Salahaddin is the other province seeing an uptick in insurgent activity. In the first three weeks of January there was an average of 1.6 incidents per day, the highest amount since June 2016 when there were 1.7. Just like in Diyala IS has moved from small hit and run and IED incidents to larger, more organized operations. On January 2, 9 suicide bombers attacked Samarra and were able to seize two police stations before being expelled and killed. Members of the provincial council have talked about IS cells operating in various areas. Also like Diyala, most of the security duties in Salahaddin are under the control of the Hashd. This has caused problems. The head of the Salahaddin council for example talked about too many different security forces in Samarra with overlapping duties and a lack of cooperation that has led to gaps, which have been exploited by the Islamic State.

Violence In Iraq By Month 2016-2017

Month	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan	723	2,418	1,986
Feb	657	1,685	1,724
Mar	683	1,685	2,095
1st Qtr Daily Avg/91	22.6	63.6	63.7
Apr	630	1,840	1,904
May	675	1,644	2,484
Jun	631	2,111	6,455
2nd Qtr Daily Avg/91	21.2	61.4	119.1
Jul	531	1,329	1,708
Aug	574	1,263	1,376
Sep	573	1,203	1,602
3rd Qtr Daily Avg/92	18.2	41.2	50.9
Oct	589	2,965	2,376
Nov	599	4,389	3,972
Dec	583	1,559	11,681
4th Qtr Daily Avg/92	19.2	96.8	195.6
Jan 1-7	185	509	1,346
Jan 8-14	166	306	1,044
Jan 15-21	137	583	1,264

Violence In Iraq, Jan 1-7, 2017

Security Incidents	185
Dead	509 21 Sahwa 38 Hashd 71 ISF 379 Civilians
Wounded	1,346 4 Hashd 45 ISF 1,282 Civilians
Shootings	48
Bombs	76
Car Bombs	19
Suicide Bombers	18
Car Bombs Destroyed	115
Suicide Bombers Killed	38
Anbar	10 Incidents 15 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3 Hashd, 10 ISF 26 Wounded: 12 ISF, 14 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 IED 3 Suicide Bombers 1 Rockets 1 Suicide Bomber Arrested 3 Suicide Car Bombers Arrested
Baghdad	46 Incidents 126 Killed: 2 Hashd, 7 ISF, 117 Civilians 221 Wounded: 4 Hashd, 217 Civilians 4 Shootings 31 IEDs 1 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 6 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Diyala	14 Incidents 33 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3 ISF, 12 Hashd, 16 Sahwa 15 Wounded: 3 ISF, 12 Hashd 10 Shootings 1 IED
Kirkuk	7 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 2 Shootings 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Najaf	1 Incident 10 Killed: 3 Civilians, 7 ISF 15 Wounded: 15 Civilians 1 Shooting 2 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Ninewa	90 Incidents 282 Killed: 15 ISF, 16 Hashd, 251 Civilians 1,028 Wounded: 12 ISF, 1,016 Civilians 16 Shootings 9 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs 7 Car Bombs 10 Mortars 3 Rockets 13 Suicide Bombers killed 10 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 93 Car Bombs Destoryed
Salahaddin	16 Incidents 45 Killed: 2 Civilians, 5 Sahwa, 5 Hashd, 29 ISF 40 Wounded: 19 Civilians, 21 ISF 11 Shootings 2 IEDs 4 Suicide Bombers 1 Mortar 10 Suicide Bombers killed 5 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 1 Grenade

Violence In Iraq, Jan 8-14, 2017

Security Incidents	166
Dead	306 2 PAK 9 Hashd 21 ISF 274 Civilians
Wounded	1,044 3 Peshmerga 3 PAK 5 Hashd 14 ISF 1,019 Civilians
Shootings	40
Bombs	68
Car Bombs	10
Suicide Bombers	5
Car Bombs Destroyed	97
Suicide Bombers Killed	20
Anbar	13 Incidents 7 Killed: 7 ISF 6 Wounded: 6 ISF 5 Shootings 1 Car Bomb 16 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Suicide Car Bombers Arrested 7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	3 Incidents 2 Killed: 1 Civilian, 1 Hashd 1 Shooting
Baghdad	45 Incidents 62 Killed: 2 ISF, 60 Civilians 206 Wounded: 2 ISF, 204 Civilians 7 Shootings 33 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs
Basra	1 incident 1 IED
Diyala	11 Incidents 18 Killed: 3 Civilians, 4 Hashd, 11 ISF 12 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 4 Civilians, 6 ISF 5 Shootings 11 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed 5 Car Bombs Destroyed
Kirkuk	5 Incidents 10 Killed: 2 PAK, 8 Civilians 3 Wounded: 3 PAK 1 IED
Ninewa	78 Incidents 187 Killed: 4 Hashd, 183 Civilians 811 Wounded: 811 Civilians 18 Shootings 4 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers 4 Car Bombs 4 Mortars 3 Rockets 5 Suicide Bombers Killed 81 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	9 Incidents 20 Killed: 1 ISF, 19 Civilians 6 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 3 Peshmerga 4 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Wasit	1 Incident 1 Car Bomb Dismantled

Violence In Iraq, Jan 15-21, 2017

Security Incidents	137
Dead	583 6 Hashd 249 ISF 328 Civilians
Wounded	1,264 13 Hashd 230 Civilians 1,021 ISF
Shootings	29
Bombs	41
Car Bombs	7
Suicide Bombers	5
Car Bombs Destroyed	61
Suicide Bombers Killed	11
Anbar	10 Incidents 11 Killed: 5 Civilians, 6 ISF 37 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 38 Civilians 2 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Rockets 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Babil	1 Incident
Baghdad	32 Incidents 27 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Hashd, 23 Civilians 87 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 85 Civilians 6 Shootings 20 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Basra	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 2 Shootings
Diyala	8 Incidents 22 Killed: 2 Civilians, 20 ISF 8 Wounded: 8 ISF 5 Shootings 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Dohuk	1 Incident
Kirkuk	6 Incidents 17 Killed: 17 Civilians 22 Wounded: 22 Civilians 2 Shootings 2 IEDs
Ninewa	68 Incidents 481 Killed: 210 ISF, 271 Civilians 1,080 Wounded: 80 Civilians, 1,000 ISF 6 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 4 Car Bombs 1 Rockets 12 Mortars 3 Grenades 9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 52 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	9 Incidents 24 Killed: 4 Hashd, 9 Civilians, 11 ISF 30 Wounded: 8 Civilians, 9 Hashd, 13 ISF 6 Shootings 1 IED 1 Mine

SOURCES

AIN, “Deputy from Diyala demanding Abadi open an investigation into the causes of the failure of security plans in the province,” 1/20/17

Antonopoulos, Paul, “Iraqi forces storm western Anbar capturing 11 villages from ISIS,” Al Masdar News, 1/7/17

Hemid, Leyla, “Baghdad Residents Demand Security in Public Demonstrations,” Bas News, 1/9/17

Iraq Oil Report, “IS guerilla campaign intensifies in Diyala, Salahaddin,” 1/19/17

Al Jazeera, "Baghdad: ISIL claims attack in busy Sadr city market," 1/2/17

Al Maalomah, “200 members of the popular crowd enter Sakra western Anbar to secure it,” 1/18/17

Al Mada, “Americans leading the Western Anbar military operation announced by Baghdad,” 1/6/17

- “Liberated area four times and because of lax security threatens security in Salahuddin,” 1/7/17

- “Operation to free western Anbar areas stopped for second time in 3 months,” 1/16/17

- “Salahuddin Council accused factions of the popular crowd from preventing the return of displaced people and threatened to internationalize issue,” 1/4/17

Middle East Eye, “Iraq forces launch operation to retake western area,” 1/5/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, “Army recaptures 8 km between Islamic State Anbar strongholds,” Iraqi News, 1/5/17

- “Baghdad official :security personnel complicit with Islamic State,” Iraqi News, 1/3/17

Rudaw, "UPDATED: Curfew imposed in Samarra after armed attacks on police," 1/2/17

Saleh, Ibrahim, “An Agile Opponent: Extremists Change Tactics in Baghdad,” Niqash, 1/19/17

Sattar, Omar, “Why is Baghdad removing checkpoints during security crisis?” Al Monitor, 1/5/17

Sotaliraq, "Samarra operations: more than five suicide bombers killed and the situation is under control," 1/2/17

Xinhua, “Iraqi female journalist set free after abduction by gunmen,” 1/4/17

- "Suicide bombers attack 2 police stations in Iraq's Samarra," 1/3/17