Monday, February 8, 2021

Iraq’s Oil Exports And Revenues Rise Again In January 2021


For the second month in a row Iraq increased its oil exports despite a promise to cut production to meet its OPEC quota. It came at an opportune time as prices for Iraq’s petroleum finally passed the $50 a barrel mark thanks in part to OPEC.

 

In January Iraq exported an average of 2.868 million barrels a day. That was up from 2.709 million in November and 2.846 million in December. This was despite Baghdad once again promising to cut back on its oil production in January and February to make up for consistently overproducing throughout 2020 despite its agreement to follow the OPEC+ deal. Iraq has not complied with the agreement nor previous ones because it is the most oil dependent country in the world. When the energy market collapsed last year it put the country into an economic crisis. It’s been unable to meet its basic bills for months now and therefore wants to produce as much as possible to maximize its revenues. That has led exports to go up and down for months now as the Oil Ministry cuts back some output and then boosts it again due to political pressure.

 

January was the first time Iraqi crude sold for over $50 since February 2020. A barrel went for $53.29. Prices dipped to $38.48 in October and then slowly rose after that. As a result Iraq earned $4.739 billion the most since $5 billion in February 2020. This increase will greatly help the 2021 budget which is the largest in history despite the government being broke and will make a large cut in the projected deficit. That doesn’t mean Baghdad is out of the woods but the extra cash will definitely help.

 

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2019-2020

Month

Avg Export (Mil)

Avg Price

Earnings (Bil)

Jan 2019

3.649

$56.15

$6.367

Feb

3.621

$60.83

$6.179

Mar

3.377

$63.80

$6.709

Apr

3.466

$67.41

$7.021

May

3.572

$66.68

$7.329

Jun

3.52

$60.58

$6.372

Jul

3.566

$61.15

$6.692

Aug

3.603

$57.41

$6.413

Sep

3.576

$59.14

$6.321

Oct

3.447

$57.15

$6.121

Nov

3.5

$59.82

$6.305

Dec

3.428

$63.05

$6.698

2019 Avgs

3.527

$61.09

$6.543

Jan 2020

3.306

$60.14

$6.163

Feb

3.391

$51.37

$5.053

Mar

3.391

$32.73

$2.962

Apr

3.438

$13.80

$1.51

May

3.212

$21.00

$2.136

Jun

2.816

$33.86

$2.871

Jul

2.763

$40.70

$3.492

Aug

2.597

$43.69

$3.492

Sep

2.613

$40.40

$3.173

Oct

2.876

$38.48

$3.457

Nov

2.709

$41.77

$3.404

Dec

2.846

$47.76

$4.235

2020 Avgs

2.996

$38.80

$3.493

Jan 2021

2.868

$53.29

$4.739

 

SOURCES

 

Al-Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq to Lower Oil Production,” Bloomberg, 1/25/21

 

Di Paola, Anthony, “Iraq Exports Signal That It Missed Target to Lower Oil Output,” Bloomberg, 2/1/21

 

Di Paola, Anthony, Lee, Julian, and Smith, Grant, “OPEC’s Number Two Iraq Misses Goal to Make Up for Quota Breaches,” Bloomberg, 2/1/21

 

Lando, Ben, “Oil price rebound and new crude grade boosts Iraq exports,” Iraq Oil Report, 2/3/21

 

NRT, “Iraq Brings In $4.7BN In Oil Income In January: Ministry,” 2/1/21

 

 

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