Sunday, March 5, 2023

Violence Drops In Iraq For The 2nd Month


Violence in Iraq has been down in the new year. Incidents have remained in single digits each week and the Islamic State is barely active anymore. There were 3 attacks by pro-Iran groups that wanted to let the world know that they are still around even though operations are no longer their priority.

 

There was a total of 20 incidents recorded in Iraq in February. There were 29 in January and 33 in December.


 

There were 3 attacks by pro-Iran groups. On the first day of February they fired rockets at a Turkish military base in Ninewa. That was followed by IEDs on convoys working for the U.S. in Muthanna and then Diwaniya. Since September these factions are barely active because they are more interested in gaining positions in the new Sudani government. They started attacks again in January to let the international community know that they are still around with 4 incidents in January and 3 in February. Operations will likely remain at this level unless they feel the need to make a statement.

 

That left 17 incidents by the Islamic State during the month. Those took place in Anbar (2), Baghdad (5), Diyala (5), Ninewa (3), and Salahaddin (2).

 

They left 12 dead and 18 wounded. 3 civilians, 4 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and 5 Hashd were killed while 8 civilians and 10 ISF were injured. Baghdad had the most casualties with 15. The other provinces were in single digits.

 

There have been some changes in violence over the last six months. First, attacks in Anbar, Kirkuk, Salahaddin and especially Diyala have fallen off. Diyala really stands out because it was the main base for the Islamic State in the country. It’s a sign of the decline of the insurgency.

 

Baghdad’s Tarmiya on the other hand, has become the main place where insurgent attacks now take place. In January and February Baghdad had the most incidents of any province. Tarmiya is a long time militant camp. Why IS became reactivated there recently is unknown. More importantly the government’s forces have been unable to secure it.

 

Overall, the Islamic State is at its lowest point in its history. Since January its attacks have been in single digits every week. So far the number of incidents per month is half the average of 2022. The group is also isolated in rural areas and has no real impact upon the country anymore.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Feb 1-7

Feb 8-14

Feb 15-21

Feb 22-28

TOTALS

Anbar

-

-

-

2

2

Baghdad

2

-

3

-

5

Diwaniya

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

1 Pro-Iran

Diyala

-

-

1

4

5

Muthanna

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Ninewa

1 Pro-Iran

1

-

2

4/1 Pro-Iran

Salahaddin

2

-

-

-

2

TOTAL

6/2 Pro-Iran

1

4

9/1 Pro-Iran

20/3 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Feb 1-7

Feb 8-14

Feb 15-21

Feb 22-28

TOTALS

Anbar

-

-

-

4 (4K)

4 (4K)

Baghdad

3 (3W)

-

12 (4K, 8W)

-

15 (4K, 11W)

Diyala

-

-

-

4 (2K, 2W)

4 (2K, 2W)

Ninewa

-

2 (2W)

-

2 (1K, 1W)

4 (1K, 3W)

Salahaddin

3 (1K, 2W)

-

-

-

3 (1K, 2W)

TOTAL

6 (1K, 5W)

2 (2W)

12 (4K, 8W)

10 (7K, 3W)

30 (12K, 18W)

 

Security In Iraq 2022-23

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

18/9

3

4

Jan 8-14

35/21

3

18

Jan 15-21

12/5

17

12

Jan 22-28

16/3

8

19

Jan 29-31

6/2

2

6

JAN

87/41

33

59

Feb 1-7

11/3

1

10

Feb 8-14

14/6

8

3

Feb 15-21

9/1

-

11

Feb 22-28

8/4

1

5

FEB

42/14

10

29

Mar 1-7

7/3

1

-

Mar 8-14

18/3/1

6

5

Mar 15-21

10/4

5

6

Mar 22-28

6/1

7

4

Mar 29-31

4/1

-

5

MAR

46/12/1

19

21

Apr 1-7

16/8

-

6

Apr 8-14

21/7

8

25

Apr 15-21

22/2

10

22

Apr 22-28

44/4

14

44

Apr 29-30

6/1

2

6

APR

111/22

34

103

May 1-7

31/3

8

25

May 8-14

9/2

2

7

May 15-21

18/6

10

6

May 22-28

13/1

21

11

May 29-31

2/1

-

2

MAY

73/13

41

51

Jun 1-7

6/2

-

8

Jun 8-14

12/4

1

9

Jun 15-21

10/2

5

2

Jun 22-28

12/6

1

14

Jun 29-30

-

-

-

JUN

40/14

7

33

Jul 1-7

7/1

6

11

Jul 8-14

3

-

2

Jul 15-21

11/2

14

16

Jul 22-28

18/7

9

21

Jul 29-31

4

4

4

JUL

43/6

33

54

Aug 1-7

9/1

6

15

Aug 8-14

14

2

14

Aug 15-21

7/2

-

6

Aug 22-28

23/4

14

15

Aug 29-31

4

2

4

AUG

57/7/1

24

54

Sep 1-7

11/1

3

20

Sep 8-14

5

-

12

Sep 15-21

12

4

14

Sep 22-28

10/2 M

2

16

Sep 29-30

3/1 M

-

2

SEP

41/1/3 M

9

64

Oct 1-7

9/2 M

6

16

Oct 8-14

8/2/1 M

5

19

Oct 15-21

6

4

7

Oct 22-28

3

2

1

Oct 29-31

2

-

2

OCT

28/2/3 M

17

45

Nov 1-7

7

1

3

Nov 8-14

6

1

8

Nov 15-21

8

7

17

Nov 22-28

2

1

-

Nov 29-30

-

-

-

NOV

23

10

28

Dec 1-7

13/1

6

11

Dec 8-14

6

7

8

Dec 15-21

6

29

15

Dec 22-28

6

-

4

Dec 29-31

2

-

-

DEC

33/1

42

38

Jan 1-7

7

4

2

Jan 8-14

6/1

5

2

Jan 15-21

11/1

2

7

Jan 22-28

5/2

1

2

Jan 29-31

1

-

2

JAN

29/4

12

15

Feb 1-7

6/2

1

5

Feb 8-14

1

-

2

Feb 15-21

4

4

8

Feb 22-28

9/1

7

3

FEB

20/3

12

18

 

Violence By Province Feb 2023

Province

Violence

2018 Avg

2019 Avg

2020 Avg

2021 Avg

2022 Avg

2023 Avg

Anbar

2 Incidents

4 Killed

4 Hashd

 

2 Shootings

12.6 incidents/

month

8.6 incidents/ month

7.0 incidents/ month

4.6 incidents/ month

2.0 incidents/month

1.0 Incidents/month

Babil

-

4.0 incidents/month

3.0 incidents/month

2.7 incidents/month

2.5 incidents/month

2.0 incidents/month

0.5 Incidents/month

Baghdad

5 Incidents

4 Killed

4 ISF

11 Wounded

1 Civilian

10 ISF

 

2 Shootings

1 Sticky Bomb

1 Grenade

1 Mortar

1 Suicide Bomber

33.0 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

7.3 incidents/month

5.6 incidents/ month

3.5 incidents/month

5 Incidents/month

Diwaniya

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diyala

5 Incidents

2 Killed

2 Civilians

2 Wounded

2 Civilians

 

4 Shootings

1 IED

38.6 incidents/month

30.0 incidents/month

30.6 incidents/month

22.8 incidents/month

12.2 incidents/month

6 Incidents/month

Kirkuk

-

36.5 incidents/month

18.6 incidents/month

13.9 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

8.2 incidents/month

1.5 Incidents/month

Muthanna

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ninewa

4/1 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Hashd

3 Wounded

3 Civilians

 

3 IEDs

1 Rockets

20.0 incidents/month

13.2 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

8.4 incidents/month

6.0 incidents/month

4 Incidents/month

Salahaddin

2 Incidents

1 Killed

1 Civilian

2 Wounded

2 Civilians

 

1 IED

21.7 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

11.2 incidents/month

11.5 incidents/month

5.5 incidents/month

2.5 Incidents/month

IRAQ

-

166.6 incidents/month

95.5 incidents/month

85.5 incidents/month

69.9 incidents/month

40.2 incidents/month

21 Incidents/month

 

SOURCES

 

NINA, "A convoy of logistical support for the Int'l Coalition Forces targeted with an IED in Diwaniyah," 2/25/23

- "Targeting a convoy of logistical support for the international coalition forces with an explosive device in Al-Muthanna," 2/6/23

 

Salem, Amr, "Rocket attack targets Turkish base in northern Iraq," Iraqi News, 2/1/23

 

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