Sadr Calls Off His Followers, What Comes Next In Iraqi Politics?

One day it seems like Iraq is heading towards civil war. The next everything is calm. That’s what happened from August 29-30.

 

On Monday Sadr’s followers stormed the Green Zone once again and after two supporters were killed and ten injured all hell broke loose. Fighting broke out with the security forces as well as Hashd units that are part of the Coordination Framework. Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam dominated Baghdad, Diyala and the south where his men came out into the streets. Al Mada reported that around 40 buildings belonging to Framework members Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, Dawa and Badr were burned by Sadrists in Baghdad, Babil, Najaf, Diwaniya, and Basra. Saraya al-Salam even lobbed some rockets at the Green Zone which fell short on two neighborhoods. Up to 30 people were killed and 570 wounded according to Agence France Presse.

 

Then on Tuesday Sadr said his men should withdraw in one hour and everything was over. Sadr’s show of force will not be forgotten. He has a large and committed following like no other political movement in Iraq based upon his family’s name and history as religious leaders in Iraq. His rivals in the Framework will remember that if things lead to violence again they will lose.

 

The question now is what will happen next? Will the bloodletting lead to any political progress as talks over forming a new government have been deadlocked for ten months? On the positive side President Barham al-Salah joined those calling for new elections which Sadr has advocated for. On the other hand, Sadr’s main opponent Nuri al-Maliki said Sadr acted illegally and praised the Hashd for protecting the state. That doesn’t bode well. Maliki’s demands and his large role in the Framework are the main reasons why Iraq doesn’t have a new prime minister. Not only that but even if Sadr gets his wish and a new round of balloting is held sometime in the future it won’t change much of the political map.

 

SOURCES

 

Agence France Presse, “Iraq president encourages early elections to end crisis,” 8/30/22

 

Al Mada, “Al-Sadr ends the most dangerous events of 18 hours, and his minister calls on the factions to leave the Green Zone,” 8/30/22

 

Al Monitor, “Protesters withdraw from Baghdad’s Green Zone,” 8/30/22

 

Salem, Amr, "Four rockets hit Green Zone in Baghdad," Iraqi News, 8/30/22