When Russia invaded Ukraine setting off a spike in world petroleum prices Iraq was riding high. As the most oil dependent country in the world Iraq welcomed the boom because it had been suffering an economic crisis since 2020 when COVID and a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia led to a plummet in the market. Baghdad’s hopes for a better future look to be short lived as prices are declining ever so slightly month to month.
In August a barrel of Iraqi crude sold for an average of $96.05 per barrel. Prices reached a high of $113.70 in June but have gone down since then. Earlier in the year Iraq’s Oil Minister said that prices would remain over $100 a barrel per month for the rest of the year but that only lasted for five months.
The country’s exports also dipped in August going from 3.303 million barrels a day in July to 3.286 million in August. For 2022 Iraq’s sales have been between 3.2-3.3 million barrels a month.
The result of the dual decline in prices and exports meant Iraq’s revenue went down as well. In July it made $10.6 billion, but $9.784 billion in August. In January and February Iraq made over $8 billion a month. Then the Ukraine war led to $10 billion in profits in March, April and July and $11 billion in May and June.
Even though overall income remains high Iraq is not benefiting from it. There is no new Iraqi government as the ruling parties are stuck in a never-ending deadlock. That means there is no new budget and Baghdad is unable to spend all this new money that’s coming in.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2019-2022
|
Month |
Avg Export (Mil) |
Avg Price |
Earnings (Bil) |
|
Jan 2019 |
3.649 |
$56.15 |
$6.367 |
|
Feb |
3.621 |
$60.83 |
$6.179 |
|
Mar |
3.377 |
$63.80 |
$6.709 |
|
Apr |
3.466 |
$67.41 |
$7.021 |
|
May |
3.572 |
$66.68 |
$7.329 |
|
Jun |
3.52 |
$60.58 |
$6.372 |
|
Jul |
3.566 |
$61.15 |
$6.692 |
|
Aug |
3.603 |
$57.41 |
$6.413 |
|
Sep |
3.576 |
$59.14 |
$6.321 |
|
Oct |
3.447 |
$57.15 |
$6.121 |
|
Nov |
3.5 |
$59.82 |
$6.305 |
|
Dec |
3.428 |
$63.05 |
$6.698 |
|
2019 Avg |
3.527 |
$61.09 |
$6.543 |
|
Jan 2020 |
3.306 |
$60.14 |
$6.163 |
|
Feb |
3.391 |
$51.37 |
$5.053 |
|
Mar |
3.391 |
$32.73 |
$2.962 |
|
Apr |
3.438 |
$13.80 |
$1.51 |
|
May |
3.212 |
$21.00 |
$2.136 |
|
Jun |
2.816 |
$33.86 |
$2.871 |
|
Jul |
2.763 |
$40.70 |
$3.492 |
|
Aug |
2.597 |
$43.69 |
$3.492 |
|
Sep |
2.613 |
$40.40 |
$3.173 |
|
Oct |
2.876 |
$38.48 |
$3.457 |
|
Nov |
2.709 |
$41.77 |
$3.404 |
|
Dec |
2.846 |
$47.76 |
$4.235 |
|
2020 Avg |
2.996 |
$38.80 |
$3.493 |
|
Jan 2021 |
2.868 |
$53.29 |
$4.765 |
|
Feb |
2.96 |
$60.33 |
$5.013 |
|
Mar |
2.946 |
$63.32 |
$5.787 |
|
Apr |
2.947 |
$62.77 |
$5.549 |
|
May |
2.899 |
$65.84 |
$5.917 |
|
Jun |
2.892 |
$70.77 |
$6.143 |
|
Jul |
2.918 |
$72.00 |
$6.476 |
|
Aug |
3.054 |
$69.01 |
$6.553 |
|
Sep |
3.081 |
$73.32 |
$6.777 |
|
Oct |
3.12 |
$79.27 |
$7.666 |
|
Nov |
3.272 |
$77.33 |
$7.611 |
|
Dec |
3.277 |
$72.80 |
$7.391 |
|
2021 Avg |
3.019 |
$68.33 |
$6.303 |
|
Jan 2022 |
3.203 |
$83.82 |
$8.323 |
|
Feb |
3.314 |
$92.08 |
$8.544 |
|
Mar |
3.244 |
$110.09 |
$10.913 |
|
Apr |
3.38 |
$104.09 |
$10.554 |
|
May |
3.3 |
$111.79 |
$11.44 |
|
Jun |
3.373 |
$113.70 |
$11.505 |
|
Jul |
3.303 |
$103.60 |
$10.6 |
|
Aug |
3.286 |
$96.05 |
$9.784 |
SOURCES
Sotaliraq, “Iraq exported about $10 billion in oil last August,” 9/2/22
Xinhua, “Iraq exports over 100 mln barrels of crude oil in Aug.,” 9/2/22
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