Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Islamic State Launches Belated Summer Offensive In Iraq


August saw the Islamic State finally launch its summer offensive. The number of incidents were still far below the previous years. Pro-Iran groups were also active during the month but a much lower level due to ongoing disputes over forming a new government.

 

There were a total of 57 incidents in Iraq reported in the media in August. That was up from 43 in July and 40 in June.


 

There were 7 incidents by pro-Iran groups. That was down from 9 in July and 14 in June. There were two rocket attacks upon a Turkish military base in northern Ninewa which is targeted every month now. These factions justify these attack by saying they are standing up against foreign occupiers. Rockets were also discovered at at the Khor Mor gas field in Sulaymaniya which was a warning to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to stick with the Coordination Framework in government formation talks. There were also four IEDs. Two were against convoys carrying supplies for the U.S. in Salahaddin, one was aimed at a mall in Baghdad owned by a Turkish company, and the third hit an Australian diplomatic convoy outside the Green Zone. The Australians have been trying to mediate between the different factions trying to form a government. The bombing was likely a warning to them.

 

Additionally, the Sadrists fired rockets towards the Green Zone during the fighting with Hashd aligned with the Coordination Framework on August 30. They fell short and landed on two neighborhoods.

 

That left 49 attacks by the Islamic State. In June there were 26 incidents going up to 37 in July. The increase was due to the insurgents finally launching their summer offensive. These figures were far below the last few years when incidents reached over 100 per month.

 

The incidents took place in Anbar (1), Babil (1), Baghdad (4), Diyala (15), Kirkuk (20), Ninewa (3), and Salahaddin (5).

 

They left 24 dead and 54 wounded. 1 Asayesh, 1 Peshmerga, 2 Hashd al-Shaabi, 9 civilians and 11 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were killed and 11 Hashd, 17 civilians and 26 ISF were injured. Kirkuk with 28 and Diyala with 22 had the most casualties followed by 12 in Salahaddin, 10 in Baghdad, 4 in Ninewa and 2 in Babil.

 

Besides the increase in incidents where they took place pointed to a new campaign by IS. Baghdad for example had 4 incidents each in April and May, 1 in June before going up to 7 in July and 5 in August. The capital province is only really hit during annual campaigns by IS.

 

Still, despite the new offensive the Islamic State is severely constrained in what it can do. During the first week of the month there were 7 incidents but none were offensive in nature. During the second week there were 14 attacks but all were defensive aimed at keeping people and the government out of IS areas such as northeast Diyala and southern Kirkuk. There were 5 incidents the third week with only 1 being offensive. For the fourth week there were 2 offensive incidents out of 19 total. From August 29-31 there were 4 incidents and all were defensive. In one month the group was only able to carry out 3 offensive attacks in total showing how limited it currently is. All the attacks were in rural and mountainous areas of Iraq showing it has lost its networks into urban areas of the country. It is only really capable of increasing attacks in the areas where it operates which are mostly remote and have few people and government presence.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Aug 1-7

Aug 8-14

Aug 15-21

Aug 22-28

Aug 29-31

Totals

Anbar

-

-

-

1

-

1

Babil

-

-

-

1

-

1

Baghdad

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

4/1 Pro-Iran

2/1 Sadrists

7/2 Pro-Iran/1 Sadrists

Diyala

3

5

-

6

1

15

Kirkuk

4

6

3

6

1

20

Ninewa

-

1

2/1 Pro-Iran

2/1 Pro-Iran

-

5/2 Pro-Iran

Salahaddin

1

2

2/1 Pro-Iran

2/1 Pro-Iran

-

7/2 Pro-Iran

Sulaymaniya

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

1 Pro-Iran

TOTAL

9/1 Pro-Iran

14

7/2 Pro-Iran

23/4 Pro-Iran

4

57/7 Pro-Iran/1 Sadrists

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Aug 1-7

Aug 8-14

Aug 15-21

Aug 22-28

Aug 29-31

Totals

Babil

-

-

-

2 (2W)

-

2 (2W)

Baghdad

-

-

-

5 (2K, 3W)

5 (1K, 4W)

10 (3K, 7W)

Diyala

10 (5K, 5W)

5 (1K, 4W)

-

7 (4K, 3W)

-

22 (10K, 12W)

Kirkuk

7 (7W)

8 (1K, 7W)

2 (2W)

10 (6K, 4W)

1 (1K)

28 (8K, 20W)

Ninewa

-

-

2 (2W)

2 (2K)

-

4 (2K, 2W)

Salahaddin

4 (1K, 3W)

3 (3W)

2 (2W)

3 (3W)

-

12 (1K, 11W)

TOTAL

21 (6K, 15W)

16 (2K, 14W)

6 (6W)

29 (14K, 15W)

6 (2K, 4W)

78 (24K, 54W)

 

Attacks by Pro-Iran Groups

 

June Total 13 (1) – 5 wounded

7/3/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Salahaddin

7/19/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Salahaddin

7/21/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Salahaddin

7/22/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

 

Drones – Turkish army base, Dohuk

7/24/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

7/25/22

Rockets – Khor Mor gas field, Sulaymaniya

7/27/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

 

Mortar – Turkish Consulate, Ninewa

7/28/22

Drone crash - Dohuk

 

July Total 9

8/5/22

IED – Turkish Mall, Baghdad

8/15/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

8/21/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Salahaddin

8/25/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

8/26/22

IED on Australia diplomatic convoy - Baghdad

8/28/22

Rockets found - Sulaymaniya

 

August Total 5 (1)

 

Security In Iraq 2021-22

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

21/2

13

19

Jan 8-14

17/3

12

6

Jan 15-21

20/3

52

133

Jan 22-28

10/3

13

12

Jan 29-31

9/1

2

6

JAN

77/13

92

176

Feb 1-7

19/2

11

23

Feb 8-14

11/3

4

8

Feb 15-21

20/7

11

23

Feb 22-28

13/4

13

23

FEB

63/16

39

77

Mar 1-7

19/5

5

8

Mar 8-14

12/2

13

15

Mar 15-21

24/6

8

7

Mar 22-28

14/2

8

13

Mar 29-31

9/5

2

1

MAR

79/20

39

44

Apr 1-7

16/10

3

5

Apr 8-14

15/6

6

18

Apr 15-21

32/4

19

44

Apr 22-28

31/6

15

42

Apr 29-30

12/1

11

23

APR

107/27

54

132

May 1-7

36/8

33

37

May 8-14

31/5

14

25

May 15-21

15/2

3

3

May 22-28

20/9

3

24

May 29-31

11

6

11

MAY

113/24

59

100

Jun 1-7

12/5

6

29

Jun 8-14

22/10

7

7

Jun 15-21

24/4

14

14

Jun 22-28

19/2

10

17

Jun 29-30

5

-

21

JUN

83/21

36

87

Jul 1-7

38/9

11

35

Jul 8-14

25/4

7

17

Jul 15-21

20/1

48

75

Jul 22-28

10/1

10

7

Jul 29-31

16/5

30

30

JUL

110/20

106

164

Aug 1-7

44/5

12

19

Aug 8-14

31/6

17

23

Aug 15-21

25/8

12

18

Aug 22-28

21/9

8

10

Aug 29-31

12/2

5

12

AUG

133/30

54

82

Sep 1-7

21/3

12

24

Sep 8-14

28/3

24

36

Sep 15-21

13/1

5

17

Sep 22-28

17/4

13

9

Sep 29-30

2

-

-

SEP

81/11

54

86

Oct 1-7

17

11

22

Oct 8-14

14/1

4

13

Oct 15-21

9/2

3

2

Oct 22-28

21/1/1

36

42

Oct 29-31

11/1

7

7

OCT

72/6/1

61

86

Nov 1-7

20/2

3

20

Nov 8-14

15/1

11

18

Nov 15-21

14/4

2

4

Nov 22-28

15/4

10

14

Nov 29-30

3/1

1

3

NOV

67/12

27

59

Dec 1-7

17/2

29

22

Dec 8-14

14/4

4

6

Dec 15-21

22/8

11

12

Dec 22-28

18/8

11

27

Dec 29-31

7/1

5

4

DEC

78/23

56

67

Jan 1-7, 2022

18/9

3

4

Jan 8-14

35/21

3

18

Jan 15-21

12/5

17

12

Jan 22-28

16/3

8

19

Jan 29-31

6/2

2

6

JAN

87/41

33

59

Feb 1-7

11/3

1

10

Feb 8-14

14/6

8

3

Feb 15-21

9/1

-

11

Feb 22-28

8/4

1

5

FEB

42/14

10

29

Mar 1-7

7/3

1

-

Mar 8-14

18/3/1

6

5

Mar 15-21

10/4

5

6

Mar 22-28

6/1

7

4

Mar 29-31

4/1

-

5

MAR

46/12/1

19

21

Apr 1-7

16/8

-

6

Apr 8-14

21/7

8

25

Apr 15-21

22/2

10

22

Apr 22-28

44/4

14

44

Apr 29-30

6/1

2

6

APR

111/22

34

103

May 1-7

31/3

8

25

May 8-14

9/2

2

7

May 15-21

18/6

10

6

May 22-28

13/1

21

11

May 29-31

2/1

-

2

MAY

73/13

41

51

Jun 1-7

6/2

-

8

Jun 8-14

12/4

1

9

Jun 15-21

10/2

5

2

Jun 22-28

12/6

1

14

Jun 29-30

-

-

-

JUN

40/14

7

33

Jul 1-7

7/1

6

11

Jul 8-14

3

-

2

Jul 15-21

11/2

14

16

Jul 22-28

18/7

9

21

Jul 29-31

4

4

4

JUL

43/6

33

54

Aug 1-7

9/1

6

15

Aug 8-14

14

2

14

Aug 15-21

7/2

-

6

Aug 22-28

23/4

14

15

Aug 29-31

4

2

4

AUG

57/7/1

24

54

 

Violence By Province Aug 2022

Province

Violence

2018 Avg

2019 Avg

2020 Avg

2021 Avg

2022 Avg

Anbar

1 Incident

1 Shooting

12.6 incidents/

month

8.6 incidents/ month

7.0 incidents/ month

4.6 incidents/ month

2.75 incidents/month

Babil

1 Incident

2 Wounded

2 Hashd

4.0 incidents/month

3.0 incidents/month

2.75 incidents/month

2.5 incidents/month

1.75 incidents/month

Baghdad

7/2 Pro-Iran

3 Killed

2 Hashd

1 Civilian

7 Wounded

1 Civilian

6 Hashd

 

2 Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Rockets

33.0 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

7.3 incidents/month

5.6 incidents/ month

3.2 incidents/month

Diyala

15 Incidents

10 Killed

1 Asayesh

2 Civilians

7 ISF

12 Wounded

4 Civilians

8 ISF

 

10 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

1 Grenade

1 Suicide Bomber Killed

34.5 incidents/month

30.0 incidents/month

30.6 incidents/month

23.2 incidents/month

14.7 incidents/month

Kirkuk

20 Incidents

8 Killed

1 Peshmerga

3 Civilians

4 ISF

20 Wounded

1 Hashd

7 Civilians

12 ISF

 

8 Shootings

5 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

4 Mortars

1 Grenade

36.5 incidents/month

18.6 incidents/month

13.9 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

10.1 incidents/month

Ninewa

5/2 Pro-Iran Incidents

2 Killed

2 Civilians

2 Wounded

2 Civilians

 

1 Shooting

2 IEDs

2 Rockets

20.0 incidents/month

14.0 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

8.4 incidents/month

6.3 incidents/month

Salahaddin

7/2 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Civilian

11 Wounded

2 Hashd

3 Civilians

6 ISF

 

1 Shooting

5 IEDs

1 Mortar

21.7 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

11.2 incidents/month

11.5 incidents/month

6.2 incidents/month

Sulaymaniya

1 Pro-Iran Incident

1 Rockets

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOURCES

 

Asharq Al-Awsat, "Explosive Detonates in Baghdad, Targets Australian Diplomats," 8/26/22

 

Al Hurrah, "An explosive device explodes in a Turkish shopping center in Baghdad," 8/5/22

 

NINA, "A Convoy Of Logistical Support For The Int'l Coalition Forces Targeted With An IED, South Of Sala al-Din," 8/23/22

 

NRT, "Missiles Fired At Zilikan Military Base, Counter Terrorism Says," 8/15/22

- "Nine Missiles Launched At Zilikan Base," 8/25/22

 

Salem, Amr, "Four rockets hit Green Zone in Baghdad," Iraqi News, 8/30/22

 

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