There was a late report of violence in Mosul on August 6. That
day
there were five incidents plus a mass grave discovered all in the western half.
Additionally, a member of the Education Directorate was shot
and killed in the east. August 6 was one of the most violent days in the city
for quite some time. It was another reminder that not only are IS elements
still hiding out in the tunnels of the Old City, but has cells roaming the rest
of Mosul as well.
Control of Mosul remains in transition. The spokesman for
the Joint Operations Command General Yahya Rasool said
that the army would remain in the city until the local police were built back
up. That came after units from the 9th and 16th Division
were pulled out to be used in the Tal Afar operation. The Federal Police is taking
over many of those areas. The Ninewa Council has been asking Baghdad for months
to re-instate the former police, but it appears that the central government
would rather create a brand new force. That could take months to years, and
there appeared to be no pre-planning for it either. That has left Mosul and
Ninewa to a mix of over 30 different forces from tribal Hashd to Hashd to
police to Federal Police to the army to the Golden Division. There is no
overall command for these forces, there is little to no coordination, and many
of the Hashd and tribal Hashd are rivals. Again, Baghdad did not prepare for
this contingency leading to this ad hoc situation. Luckily, the Islamic State
is on the run, but once it regroups this hodgepodge situation could easily be
exploited by the militants.
For over two weeks now the Iraqi forces (ISF) have said the
Tal Afar operation is right around the corner. The Defense Ministry was the
latest to announce
that the battle plan was completed and that a starting date has been set. Air
strikes have been going on for days and knocked
out several bridges in the district to limit the insurgents freedom of
movement. A MiG
flying reconnaissance was hit over the town by IS fire, wounding the two crew
members. The Federal Police started
reconnaissance missions and setting up logistics for the campaign. A member of
the Ninewa council claimed
all the civilians had fled Tal Afar only leaving IS families. Finally, Al
Mada had a good piece on the challenges in the upcoming fight. Some parts
of Tal Afar are as densely laid out as Mosul. There are also many orchards in
the south. Those two areas could be difficult zones to maneuver through for the
ISF. On the other hand, the article contradicted the councilman’s claim that
all the people were out of the district, noting that non-IS families were on
the perimeter of the town, which could help with their evacuation so they don't
get caught up in the combat. Finally, there are not many fighters left. The
campaign was originally supposed to start at the end of July, but the Hashd had
to move back from the Syrian border, which caused a delay. That should end very
soon.
The number of displaced (IDPs) in Ninewa has recently
plateaued. On July
30, there were 837,450 IDPs. A week later on July 6 there were 838,950.
Many of the people entering camps are going through their second or third
displacement. Many fled Mosul, went back, but now are leaving once again due to
their homes being destroyed, not having any money, the lack of jobs, high rent,
and not being able to afford basic needs. Rudaw for
example, had a short video about all the people looking for employment in the
city. Continued news of IS attacks is keeping the number of people departing
the camps at a relatively low level. From August 2-3, 420 families left. The
main reasons why people want out is that there are no jobs, and there is no air
conditioning during the sweltering summer heat. Since the start of the Mosul campaign
there has been a constant movement of people in and out of the camps. That
trend continues even after the city has been freed. Until there is a decided
change in the overall situation, this will go on.
SOURCES
Baghdad Post,
“Video: Iraqi jets destroy bridges, arches in Tal Afar,” 8/7/17
Bas News, “Iraqi Army Continues Security Measures in
Liberated Mosul,” 8/8/17
Iraq Newspaper,
“Al-Iraq Reporter In Mosul The Terrorist Daesh Down MiG In Tal Afar,” 8/7/17
Al Maalomah, “Ninewa
Council: Tal Afar is free of civilians and there are only Daesh families in the
area,” 8/7/17
Al Mada, “Federal
Police: We started reconnaissance operations for Tal Afar battle,” 8/8/17
- “Mosul scenario is
to be repeated in Tal Afar after military buildup is completed,” 8/7/17
Mostafa, Mohamed, “Army ordered to move from Mosul to Tal
Afar preparing for invasion,” Iraqi News, 8/7/17
Mostafa, Nehal,
“Arrangements for Tal Afar invasion concluded: Defense Ministry,” Iraqi News,
8/7/17
NINA, "Gunmen Kill An Employee Of Nineveh
Education Directorate," 8/6/17
Rudaw, “Lack of
money means slow start to reconstruction of Mosul,” 8/7/17
Sulaivany, Karzan,
“Iraqi army will temporarily enforce security in Mosul: Army Spokesperson,”
8/7/17
UN High Commissioner
for Refugees, “Iraq Situation: UNHCR Flash Update – 6 August 2017,” 8/6/17
- “Iraq Situation:
UNHCR Flash Update – 30 July 2017,” 7/30/17
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