Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Oil Market Continues To Recover Boosting Iraq’s Revenues


Iraq’s oil exports dipped slightly in March 2021, but prices continued to rise which meant revenues were up for the fifth month. This is important for the most petroleum dependent country in the world whose economy rises and falls with the energy market.

 

In March, Iraq averaged 2.945 million barrels a day in petroleum exports. This was slightly down from February’s 2.96 million. This was despite the Oil Ministry boosting its production in February by around 100,000 barrels a day according to Iraq Oil Report.

 

That didn’t matter as oil prices went up again. In March a barrel of Iraqi crude went for $63.32 compared to $60.33 in February, and $53.29 in January. In fact, this was the fifth month of increases. Likewise revenues went from $4.765 billion in January to $5.013 billion in February, and $5.782 billion in March. This is good news for Baghdad that just passed the largest budget in its history. It likewise has a massive projected deficit. The nation needs to average $60 per barrel for its oil for the duration of 2021 to pay for this massive amount of spending. The idea of fiscal responsibility and economic reform has gone out the window with the recovery in the energy market. This has been the pattern since Iraq regained its sovereignty in 2005. When oil prices are up the elite greatly expands the already bloated state to maintain its patronage networks and steal money. When petroleum goes down the country goes into a meltdown until the trend reverses itself.

 

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2019-2020

Month

Avg Export (Mil)

Avg Price

Earnings (Bil)

Jan 2019

3.649

$56.15

$6.367

Feb

3.621

$60.83

$6.179

Mar

3.377

$63.80

$6.709

Apr

3.466

$67.41

$7.021

May

3.572

$66.68

$7.329

Jun

3.52

$60.58

$6.372

Jul

3.566

$61.15

$6.692

Aug

3.603

$57.41

$6.413

Sep

3.576

$59.14

$6.321

Oct

3.447

$57.15

$6.121

Nov

3.5

$59.82

$6.305

Dec

3.428

$63.05

$6.698

2019 Avgs

3.527

$61.09

$6.543

Jan 2020

3.306

$60.14

$6.163

Feb

3.391

$51.37

$5.053

Mar

3.391

$32.73

$2.962

Apr

3.438

$13.80

$1.51

May

3.212

$21.00

$2.136

Jun

2.816

$33.86

$2.871

Jul

2.763

$40.70

$3.492

Aug

2.597

$43.69

$3.492

Sep

2.613

$40.40

$3.173

Oct

2.876

$38.48

$3.457

Nov

2.709

$41.77

$3.404

Dec

2.846

$47.76

$4.235

2020 Avgs

2.996

$38.80

$3.493

Jan 2021

2.868

$53.29

$4.765

Feb

2.96

$60.33

$5.013

Mar

2.945

$63.32

$5.782

 

SOURCES

 

Al Forat, “$5,782,711, Iraq’s oil revenues for last March,” 4/1/21

 

Iraq Oil Report, “Iraq production jumps as OPEC-plus pressure eases,” 3/23/21

 

Lando, Ben and Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Rising oil sales fuel hopes of funding new 2021 budget targets,” Iraq Oil Report, 4/2/21

 

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