Is A New Islamic State Offensive Beginning In Iraq?

Most of August was relatively quiet until the last week when attacks by the Islamic State suddenly took off. The number and location of those incidents could point to a late summer offensive by the insurgents.

 

There were 88 security incidents reported in Iraq in August. 24 were by pro-Iran groups. There were just 2 in May, but then Iraq and the United States opened talks over a new security agreement which Iran objected to and incidents suddenly jumped to 8 in June, 12 in July, topped off by 23 in August when the Prime Minister went to Washington D.C. and Tehran wanted to embarrass the premier. August’s attacks were spread across Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya and Salahaddin and consisted of 14 rocket attacks and 10 IEDs on convoys carrying supplies to the Americans.

 

That left 64 incidents by the Islamic State. Attacks have slowly been going up from 52 in June and 61 in July. This was the usual lull after an IS campaign which lasted from March to May. At the end of August however things picked up. There were just 5 incidents from August 1-7, 9 from August 8-14, 9 August 15-21, but then 29 from August 22-28, along with another 10 from August 29-31.

 

Those attacks were spread across Baghdad (1), Irbil (1), Babil (3), Anbar (6), Kirkuk (9), Ninewa (10), Salahaddin (9), and Diyala (25).

 

54 people were killed and 105 were wounded during the month. 4 Hashd al-Shaabi, 24 civilians and 26 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) lost their lives and 2 UN workers, 11 Hashd, 44 civilians and 48 ISF were injured. Diyala had the most casualties with 62.

 

One sign that IS was increasing its activity was an IED incident in Makhmour, Irbil. This area had not seen an attack since the first week of June. Makhmour is one of the disputed areas and IS has exploited the gap between the Iraqi and Kurdish forces there.

 

Anbar is another place to keep an eye on. The first week of August there were no incidents there, followed by 1 the second week, 1 the third week, and then 4 the last week of the month. The province is used as logistical and smuggling hub by IS and therefore attacks are rare there. They only increase when the militants begin a new campaign.

 

Finally, there is Diyala. It is the center of IS operations in Iraq. It regularly has the most attacks of any province. The first week of August however there was only 1 incident there, 5 the second week, 1 the third, before 15 the last week, and 3 the last three days of the month. In those last 10 days there was one gun battle, one army base was attacked, two towns hit by mortars, 3 villages attacked, 3 kidnappings, and 7 checkpoints assaulted. As usual, most of these events occurred in the Muqdadiya district in the center and Khanaqin in the northeast. IS has de facto control of many of the rural areas of these two districts, have driven out hundreds of people and emptied dozens of villages. By the end of the month IS also carried out attacks in the north.

 

The Islamic State is also in the middle of a war of attrition with the security forces. 89 of the 159 casualties in August were members of the Hashd and ISF. This included one Hashd commander killed in Diyala and the head of the Counter Terror Service in Salahaddin. In July, an army brigade commander was killed in Anbar, and a Hashd brigade commander died in Salahaddin.

 

One week of increased attacks doesn’t mean anything by itself. Whether IS is starting a new campaign or not will only be revealed in the following weeks.

 

Attacks by Pro-Iran Groups May-August 2020

Date	Incident - Location
5/6/20	Rockets – Baghdad International Airport
5/19/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
	May Total - 2
6/8/20	Rockets – Baghdad International Airport
6/10/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
6/13/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
6/14/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
6/15/20	Rockets – Baghdad International Airport
	Rockets found - Rashidiya, Baghdad
6/18/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
6/22/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s International Airport
	June Total - 8
7/5/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
	Rockets found – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
7/10/20	Rockets found – Aimed at Baghdad’s Green Zone
7/11/20	Burned trucks carrying supplies to US - Muthanna
7/19/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
7/22/20	IEDs trucks carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar
7/23/10	Drone and bomb found – Jadriya, Baghdad
7/24/10	Rockets – Baghdad’s Besmaya Base
7/27/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
	Rockets – Salahaddin’s Camp Speicher
7/30/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s International Airport
7/31/20	Rockets found – Jabour al-Shaarah, Baghdad
	July Totals – 12
8/3/20	Rockets – 2 areas of Meshada Dist, Baghdad
	Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
8/4/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar
8/5/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
8/9/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar
8/10/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra
8/11/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
	Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
	Rockets – Landed in Tigris River, Baghdad
8/14/20	Rockets – Baghdad International Airport
	Rockets – Salahaddin’s Balad Air Base
	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya
8/15/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji
	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar
8/16/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
8/18/20	Rockets – Baghdad International Airport
8/21/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad
8/22/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad
8/23/20	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad
8/28/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
8/29/20	Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone
	IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil
8/30/20	Rockets – Baghdad International Airport
	August Totals - 24

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Aug 1-7	Aug 8-14	Aug 15-21	Aug 22-28	Aug 29-30	TOTALS
Anbar	-	1	1	4	-	6
Babil	-	-	1	-	3/ 1 Pro-Iran	4/ 1 Pro-Iran
Baghdad	4 Pro-Iran	5/ 4 Pro-Iran	4 Pro-Iran	3 Pro-Iran	2 Pro-Iran	18/ 17 Pro-Iran
Basra	-	1 Pro-Iran	-	-	-	1 Pro-Iran
Dhi Qar	1 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	-	-	3 Pro-Iran
Diwaniya	-	1 Pro-Iran	-	-	-	1 Pro-Iran
Diyala	1	5	1	15	3	25
Irbil	-	-	-	1	-	1
Kirkuk	1	2	2	2	2	9
Ninewa	1	1	2	4	2	10
Salahaddin	2	2/ 1 Pro-Iran	2	3	1	10/ 1 Pro-Iran
TOTAL	10/ 5 Pro-Iran	19/ 8 Pro-Iran	14/ 5 Pro-Iran	32/ 3 Pro-Iran	13/ 3 Pro-Iran	88/ 24 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Aug 1-7	Aug 8-14	Aug 15-21	Aug 22-28	Aug 29-31	TOTALS
Anbar	-	1 (1K)	1 (1K)	11 (6K, 5W)	-	13 (8K, 5W)
Babil	-	-	1 (1K)	-	3 (3W)	4 (1K, 3W)
Baghdad	-	1 (1K)	1 (1K)	-	-	2 (2K)
Diyala	6 (2K, 4W)	17 (3K, 14W)	4 (4 W)	27 (13K, 14W)	8 (4K, 4W)	62 (22K, 40W)
Irbil	-	-	-	2 (2W)	-	2 (2)
Kirkuk	-	9 (2K, 7W)	7 (2K, 5W)	14 (4K, 10W)	1 (1W)	31 (8K, 23W)
Ninewa	-	1 (1W)	1 (1W)	6 (6W)	4 (4W)	12 (12W)
Salahaddin	11 (5K, 6W)	-	18 (8K, 10W)	4 (4W)	-	33 (13K, 20W)
TOTAL	17 (7K, 10W)	29 (7K, 22W)	33 (13K, 20W)	64 (23 K, 41W)	16 (4K, 12W)	159 (54K, 105W)

 

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-20

Diyala	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
2018 Totals	219	198	47	43	5	13	25	3	1
2019 Totals	185	112	33	63	2	6	29	2	-
Jan 2020	13	6	-	2	-	1	-	-	-
Feb	16	5	2	8	-	1	-	-	-
Mar	15	10	4	2	-	-	-	-	-
Apr	20	17	4	2	-	-	-	-	-
May	38	18	8	9	1	5	17	-	-
Jun	13	1	-	2	-	1	2	-	-
Jul	10	10	1	2	-	-	2	-	-
Aug	16	5	2	7	-	3	3	-	-

 

Kirkuk	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
2018 Totals	172	182	39	18	10	14	29	9	6
2019 Totals	77	116	24	19	6	8	18	-	1
Jan 2020	10	1	2	2	-	1	-	-	-
Feb	5	-	2	1	-	2	1	-	-
Mar	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-
Apr	17	7	6	3	-	2	1	1	-
May	15	10	1	7	1	4	10	-	-
Jun	5	2	1	1	-	1	1	-	-
Aug	5	5	1	-	-	-	3	-	-

 

Ninewa	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
2018 Totals	139	74	43	7	5	6	6	2	3
2019 Totals	63	49	14	3	9	6	17	-	3
Jan 2020	7	5	2	1	-	1	-	-	-
Feb	5	5	-	-	1	-	-	-	1
Mar	2	5	1	-	-	-	-	-	-
Apr	8	8	1	4	-	1	1	-	-
May	5	9	-	2	-	-	2	-	-
Jun	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Jul	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-
Aug	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

 

Salahaddin	Shootings (Totals)	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs (Totals)	Gun Battles	Attacks on Checkpoints	Attacks on Mukhtars/ Sheikhs	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
2018 Totals	110	102	41	18	1	16	4	9	5
2019 Totals	60	54	32	5	2	6	8	2	6
Jan 2020	4	-	-	1	1	-	-	-	-
Feb	5	-	1	-	-	1	-	-	-
Mar	5	2	3	-	-	-	-	-	-
Apr	4	3	3	-	-	1	-	-	-
May	21	6	9	5	-	2	2	-	-
Jun	5	4	1	2	-	-	1	-	-
Jul	4	5	1	1	1	-	-	-	-
Aug	6	3	3	1	-	-	-	-	-

           

Security In Iraq 2019-20

Week	Security Incidents (Total/By IS)	Dead (Total/By IS)	Wounded (Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7	32	17/10	24
Jan 8-14	32	94/31	53
Jan 15-21	22	17/11	16/14
Jan 22-28	27	36/17	31
Jan 29-31	12	7	6
JAN 2019	114	139	130/128
Feb 1-7	29/1	76/16	30
Feb 8-14	24	26	18
Feb 15-21	40	112/37	12
Feb 22-28	25	36	70
FEB	118/1	250/115	130
Mar 1-7	13	22	45
Mar 8-14	19	75/10	37
Mar 15-21	12	66/37	21/11
Mar 22-28	13	8/5	1
Mar 29-31	6	8	7
MAR	61	147	101
Apr 1-7	20	22	13
Apr 8-14	41	28	42
Apr 15-21	17	9/8	26
Apr 22-28	19	45	15
Apr 29-30	2	1	4
APR	99	105	100
May 1-7	20	15	18
May 8-14	24	31	41
May 15-21	37/1	62/25	39
May 22-28	43	39	54
May 29-31	13	16	48
MAY	137/1	163/125	200
Jun 1-7	26	19	44
Jun 8-14	25/1	29	15
Jun 15-21	21/2	6	13/10
Jun 22-28	18	17	41
Jun 29-30	9	3	9
JUN	99/3	74	122/119
Jul 1-7	20	11	39
Jul 8-14	14	31	10
Jul 15-21	17	14	37
Jul 22-28	23	14	20
Jul 29-31	8	13	13
JUL	82	83	119
Aug 1-7	27	14	31
Aug 8-14	18	13	13
Aug 15-21	20	33	15
Aug 22-28	27	24	72
Aug 29-31	11	19	10
AUG	104	103	141
Sep 1-7	39	39	38
Sep 8-14	30	35	43
Sep 15-21	23	27	26
Sep 22-28	24/1	15	20
Sep 29-30	7	6	4
SEP	123/1	122	131
Oct 1-7	3	1	2
Oct 8-14	14	25	17
Oct 15-21	19	29	13
Oct 22-28	22/1	33	10
Oct 29-31	12/1	4	11
OCT	70/2	92	53
Nov 1-7	6/1	4	1
Nov 8-14	9/1	2	25
Nov 15-21	15/1	11	2
Nov 22-28	17/1	24	33
Nov 29-30	8/1	6	37
NOV	55/5	47	98
Dec 1-7	36/3	33	44
Dec 8-14	19/3	19	19
Dec 15-21	26	44	25
Dec 22-28	30/1	30	38
Dec 29-31	9	8	7
DEC	120/7	134	133
Jan 1-7	25/7	16	84
Jan 8-14	24/3	12	34
Jan 15-21	23/2	11	12
Jan 22-28	11/1	10	8
Jan 29-31	8/1	4	1
JAN 2020	91/12	53	139
Feb 1-7	22	13	11
Feb 8-14	18/1	5	38
Feb 15-21	16/2	42	18
Feb 22-28	25	15	34
Feb 29	4	5	2
FEB	85/3	80	103
Mar 1-7	17/3	11	17
Mar 8-14	15/2	13	33
Mar 15-21	14/2	5	19
Mar 22-28	14/1	13	11
Mar 29-31	9	5	10
MAR	69/8	47	90
Ap 1-7	27/1	27	37
Apr 8-14	24	25	51
Apr 15-21	33/1	19	34
Apr 22-28	22	8	40
Apr 29-30	5	2	4
APR	111/2	81	165
May 1-7	44/1	47	36
May 8-14	49	21	47
May 15-21	66/1	45	64
May 22-28	30	9	21
May 29-31	7	3	12
MAY	196/2	125	180
Jun 1-7	17	13	19
Jun 8-14	16/4	10	15
Jun 15-21	16/3	11	19
Jun 22-28	10/1	8	13
Jun 29-30	1	4	2
JUN	60/8	46	68
Jul 1-7	12/2	3	9
Jul 8-14	16/2	15	15
Jul 15-21	19/1	17	28
Jul 22-28	13/5	9	8
Jul 29-31	13/2	3	7
JUL	73/12	47	67
Aug 1-7	10/4	7	10
Aug 8-14	19/8	7	22
Aug 15-21	14/5	13	20
Aug 22-28	32/3	23	41
Aug 29-31	13/3	4	12
AUG	88/24	54	105

 

Violence By Province Aug 2020

Province	Violence
Anbar	6 Incidents 8 Killed 3 ISF 5 Civilians 5 Wounded 2 ISF 3 Hashd   3 Shootings 3 IEDs
Babil	4/1 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 Killed 1 Hashd 3 Wounded 3 ISF   4 IEDs
Baghdad	18/17 Pro-Iran Incidents 2 Killed 2 Civilians   1 Shooting 4 IEDs 13 Rockets
Basra	1 Pro-Iran Incident   1 IED
Dhi Qar	3 Pro-Iran Incidents   3 IEDs
Diwaniya	1 Pro-Iran Incident   1 IED
Diyala	25 Incidents 22 Killed 3 Hashd 6 ISF 13 Civilians 40 Wounded 4 Hashd 15 ISF 21 Civilians   16 Shootings 5 IEDs 4 Mortars
Irbil	1 Incident 2 Wounded 2 ISF   1 IED
Kirkuk	9 Incidents 8 Killed 3 Civilians 5 ISF 23 Wounded 4 Hashd 5 ISF 14 Civilians   5 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Ninewa	10 Incidents 12 Wounded 2 UN Workers 4 ISF 6 Civilians   12 IEDs
Salahaddin	10/1 Pro-Iran Incident 13 Killed 1 Civilian 12 ISF 20 Wounded 3 Civilians 17 ISF   7 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Rocket

 

SOURCES

 

NINA, "A brigade Commander and a first lieutenant officer were killed in an ISIS attack in Heet," 7/29/20

- "A Leader In The PMF Martyred IN An ISIS Attack In Khanaqin, Diyala," 8/29/20

- "An officer and a fighter of the Anti-Terrorism Service killed in an explosive device in the Makhoul Mountains," 8/21/20

 

NRT, "PMF Commander Killed In ISIS Attack In Khanaqin's Shirk Village," 8/28/20

 

Shafaaq News, "A bombing kills a commander in the crowd in Salahaddin," 7/17/20

 

Xinhua, "Iraqi senior officer killed in bomb explosion in northern Baghdad," 8/21/20