Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Is A New Islamic State Offensive Beginning In Iraq?


Most of August was relatively quiet until the last week when attacks by the Islamic State suddenly took off. The number and location of those incidents could point to a late summer offensive by the insurgents.

 

There were 88 security incidents reported in Iraq in August. 24 were by pro-Iran groups. There were just 2 in May, but then Iraq and the United States opened talks over a new security agreement which Iran objected to and incidents suddenly jumped to 8 in June, 12 in July, topped off by 23 in August when the Prime Minister went to Washington D.C. and Tehran wanted to embarrass the premier. August’s attacks were spread across Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya and Salahaddin and consisted of 14 rocket attacks and 10 IEDs on convoys carrying supplies to the Americans.

 

That left 64 incidents by the Islamic State. Attacks have slowly been going up from 52 in June and 61 in July. This was the usual lull after an IS campaign which lasted from March to May. At the end of August however things picked up. There were just 5 incidents from August 1-7, 9 from August 8-14, 9 August 15-21, but then 29 from August 22-28, along with another 10 from August 29-31.


 

Those attacks were spread across Baghdad (1), Irbil (1), Babil (3), Anbar (6), Kirkuk (9), Ninewa (10), Salahaddin (9), and Diyala (25).

 

54 people were killed and 105 were wounded during the month. 4 Hashd al-Shaabi, 24 civilians and 26 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) lost their lives and 2 UN workers, 11 Hashd, 44 civilians and 48 ISF were injured. Diyala had the most casualties with 62.

 

One sign that IS was increasing its activity was an IED incident in Makhmour, Irbil. This area had not seen an attack since the first week of June. Makhmour is one of the disputed areas and IS has exploited the gap between the Iraqi and Kurdish forces there.

 

Anbar is another place to keep an eye on. The first week of August there were no incidents there, followed by 1 the second week, 1 the third week, and then 4 the last week of the month. The province is used as logistical and smuggling hub by IS and therefore attacks are rare there. They only increase when the militants begin a new campaign.

 

Finally, there is Diyala. It is the center of IS operations in Iraq. It regularly has the most attacks of any province. The first week of August however there was only 1 incident there, 5 the second week, 1 the third, before 15 the last week, and 3 the last three days of the month. In those last 10 days there was one gun battle, one army base was attacked, two towns hit by mortars, 3 villages attacked, 3 kidnappings, and 7 checkpoints assaulted. As usual, most of these events occurred in the Muqdadiya district in the center and Khanaqin in the northeast. IS has de facto control of many of the rural areas of these two districts, have driven out hundreds of people and emptied dozens of villages. By the end of the month IS also carried out attacks in the north.

 

The Islamic State is also in the middle of a war of attrition with the security forces. 89 of the 159 casualties in August were members of the Hashd and ISF. This included one Hashd commander killed in Diyala and the head of the Counter Terror Service in Salahaddin. In July, an army brigade commander was killed in Anbar, and a Hashd brigade commander died in Salahaddin.

 

One week of increased attacks doesn’t mean anything by itself. Whether IS is starting a new campaign or not will only be revealed in the following weeks.

 

Attacks by Pro-Iran Groups May-August 2020

Date

Incident - Location

5/6/20

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

5/19/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

 

May Total - 2

6/8/20

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

6/10/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

6/13/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

6/14/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

6/15/20

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

 

Rockets found - Rashidiya, Baghdad

6/18/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

6/22/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s International Airport

 

June Total - 8

7/5/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

 

Rockets found – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

7/10/20

Rockets found – Aimed at Baghdad’s Green Zone

7/11/20

Burned trucks carrying supplies to US - Muthanna

7/19/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

7/22/20

IEDs trucks carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

7/23/10

Drone and bomb found – Jadriya, Baghdad

7/24/10

Rockets – Baghdad’s Besmaya Base

7/27/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

 

Rockets – Salahaddin’s Camp Speicher

7/30/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s International Airport

7/31/20

Rockets found – Jabour al-Shaarah, Baghdad

 

July Totals – 12

8/3/20

Rockets – 2 areas of Meshada Dist, Baghdad

 

Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

8/4/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

8/5/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

8/9/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

8/10/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra

8/11/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

 

Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

 

Rockets – Landed in Tigris River, Baghdad

8/14/20

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

 

Rockets – Salahaddin’s Balad Air Base

 

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya

8/15/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Camp Taji

 

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

8/16/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

8/18/20

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

8/21/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad

8/22/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad

8/23/20

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad

8/28/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

8/29/20

Rockets – Baghdad’s Green Zone

 

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil

8/30/20

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

 

August Totals - 24

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Aug 1-7

Aug 8-14

Aug 15-21

Aug 22-28

Aug 29-30

TOTALS

Anbar

-

1

1

4

-

6

Babil

-

-

1

-

3/

1 Pro-Iran

4/

1 Pro-Iran

Baghdad

4 Pro-Iran

5/

4 Pro-Iran

4 Pro-Iran

3 Pro-Iran

2 Pro-Iran

18/

17 Pro-Iran

Basra

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Dhi Qar

1 Pro-Iran

1 Pro-Iran

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

3 Pro-Iran

Diwaniya

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Diyala

1

5

1

15

3

25

Irbil

-

-

-

1

-

1

Kirkuk

1

2

2

2

2

9

Ninewa

1

1

2

4

2

10

Salahaddin

2

2/

1 Pro-Iran

2

3

1

10/

1 Pro-Iran

TOTAL

10/

5 Pro-Iran

19/

8 Pro-Iran

14/

5 Pro-Iran

32/

3 Pro-Iran

13/

3 Pro-Iran

88/

24 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Aug 1-7

Aug 8-14

Aug 15-21

Aug 22-28

Aug 29-31

TOTALS

Anbar

-

1 (1K)

1 (1K)

11 (6K, 5W)

-

13 (8K, 5W)

Babil

-

-

1 (1K)

-

3 (3W)

4 (1K, 3W)

Baghdad

-

1 (1K)

1 (1K)

-

-

2 (2K)

Diyala

6 (2K, 4W)

17 (3K, 14W)

4 (4 W)

27 (13K, 14W)

8 (4K, 4W)

62 (22K, 40W)

Irbil

-

-

-

2 (2W)

-

2 (2)

Kirkuk

-

9 (2K, 7W)

7 (2K, 5W)

14 (4K, 10W)

1 (1W)

31 (8K, 23W)

Ninewa

-

1 (1W)

1 (1W)

6 (6W)

4 (4W)

12 (12W)

Salahaddin

11 (5K, 6W)

-

18 (8K, 10W)

4 (4W)

-

33 (13K, 20W)

TOTAL

17 (7K, 10W)

29 (7K, 22W)

33 (13K, 20W)

64 (23 K, 41W)

16 (4K, 12W)

159 (54K, 105W)

 

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-20

Diyala

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

2018

Totals

219

198

47

43

5

13

25

3

1

2019

Totals

185

112

33

63

2

6

29

2

-

Jan 2020

13

6

-

2

-

1

-

-

-

Feb

16

5

2

8

-

1

-

-

-

Mar

15

10

4

2

-

-

-

-

-

Apr

20

17

4

2

-

-

-

-

-

May

38

18

8

9

1

5

17

-

-

Jun

13

1

-

2

-

1

2

-

-

Jul

10

10

1

2

-

-

2

-

-

Aug

16

5

2

7

-

3

3

-

-

 

Kirkuk

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

2018

Totals

172

182

39

18

10

14

29

9

6

2019

Totals

77

116

24

19

6

8

18

-

1

Jan 2020

10

1

2

2

-

1

-

-

-

Feb

5

-

2

1

-

2

1

-

-

Mar

1

-

-

1

-

-

-

-

-

Apr

17

7

6

3

-

2

1

1

-

May

15

10

1

7

1

4

10

-

-

Jun

5

2

1

1

-

1

1

-

-

Aug

5

5

1

-

-

-

3

-

-

 

Ninewa

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

2018

Totals

139

74

43

7

5

6

6

2

3

2019

Totals

63

49

14

3

9

6

17

-

3

Jan 2020

7

5

2

1

-

1

-

-

-

Feb

5

5

-

-

1

-

-

-

1

Mar

2

5

1

-

-

-

-

-

-

Apr

8

8

1

4

-

1

1

-

-

May

5

9

-

2

-

-

2

-

-

Jun

-

5

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Jul

-

1

-

1

-

-

-

-

-

Aug

-

12

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

Salahaddin

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

2018

Totals

110

102

41

18

1

16

4

9

5

2019

Totals

60

54

32

5

2

6

8

2

6

Jan 2020

4

-

-

1

1

-

-

-

-

Feb

5

-

1

-

-

1

-

-

-

Mar

5

2

3

-

-

-

-

-

-

Apr

4

3

3

-

-

1

-

-

-

May

21

6

9

5

-

2

2

-

-

Jun

5

4

1

2

-

-

1

-

-

Jul

4

5

1

1

1

-

-

-

-

Aug

6

3

3

1

-

-

-

-

-

           

Security In Iraq 2019-20

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

32

17/10

24

Jan 8-14

32

94/31

53

Jan 15-21

22

17/11

16/14

Jan 22-28

27

36/17

31

Jan 29-31

12

7

6

JAN 2019

114

139

130/128

Feb 1-7

29/1

76/16

30

Feb 8-14

24

26

18

Feb 15-21

40

112/37

12

Feb 22-28

25

36

70

FEB

118/1

250/115

130

Mar 1-7

13

22

45

Mar 8-14

19

75/10

37

Mar 15-21

12

66/37

21/11

Mar 22-28

13

8/5

1

Mar 29-31

6

8

7

MAR

61

147

101

Apr 1-7

20

22

13

Apr 8-14

41

28

42

Apr 15-21

17

9/8

26

Apr 22-28

19

45

15

Apr 29-30

2

1

4

APR

99

105

100

May 1-7

20

15

18

May 8-14

24

31

41

May 15-21

37/1

62/25

39

May 22-28

43

39

54

May 29-31

13

16

48

MAY

137/1

163/125

200

Jun 1-7

26

19

44

Jun 8-14

25/1

29

15

Jun 15-21

21/2

6

13/10

Jun 22-28

18

17

41

Jun 29-30

9

3

9

JUN

99/3

74

122/119

Jul 1-7

20

11

39

Jul 8-14

14

31

10

Jul 15-21

17

14

37

Jul 22-28

23

14

20

Jul 29-31

8

13

13

JUL

82

83

119

Aug 1-7

27

14

31

Aug 8-14

18

13

13

Aug 15-21

20

33

15

Aug 22-28

27

24

72

Aug 29-31

11

19

10

AUG

104

103

141

Sep 1-7

39

39

38

Sep 8-14

30

35

43

Sep 15-21

23

27

26

Sep 22-28

24/1

15

20

Sep 29-30

7

6

4

SEP

123/1

122

131

Oct 1-7

3

1

2

Oct 8-14

14

25

17

Oct 15-21

19

29

13

Oct 22-28

22/1

33

10

Oct 29-31

12/1

4

11

OCT

70/2

92

53

Nov 1-7

6/1

4

1

Nov 8-14

9/1

2

25

Nov 15-21

15/1

11

2

Nov 22-28

17/1

24

33

Nov 29-30

8/1

6

37

NOV

55/5

47

98

Dec 1-7

36/3

33

44

Dec 8-14

19/3

19

19

Dec 15-21

26

44

25

Dec 22-28

30/1

30

38

Dec 29-31

9

8

7

DEC

120/7

134

133

Jan 1-7

25/7

16

84

Jan 8-14

24/3

12

34

Jan 15-21

23/2

11

12

Jan 22-28

11/1

10

8

Jan 29-31

8/1

4

1

JAN 2020

91/12

53

139

Feb 1-7

22

13

11

Feb 8-14

18/1

5

38

Feb 15-21

16/2

42

18

Feb 22-28

25

15

34

Feb 29

4

5

2

FEB

85/3

80

103

Mar 1-7

17/3

11

17

Mar 8-14

15/2

13

33

Mar 15-21

14/2

5

19

Mar 22-28

14/1

13

11

Mar 29-31

9

5

10

MAR

69/8

47

90

Ap 1-7

27/1

27

37

Apr 8-14

24

25

51

Apr 15-21

33/1

19

34

Apr 22-28

22

8

40

Apr 29-30

5

2

4

APR

111/2

81

165

May 1-7

44/1

47

36

May 8-14

49

21

47

May 15-21

66/1

45

64

May 22-28

30

9

21

May 29-31

7

3

12

MAY

196/2

125

180

Jun 1-7

17

13

19

Jun 8-14

16/4

10

15

Jun 15-21

16/3

11

19

Jun 22-28

10/1

8

13

Jun 29-30

1

4

2

JUN

60/8

46

68

Jul 1-7

12/2

3

9

Jul 8-14

16/2

15

15

Jul 15-21

19/1

17

28

Jul 22-28

13/5

9

8

Jul 29-31

13/2

3

7

JUL

73/12

47

67

Aug 1-7

10/4

7

10

Aug 8-14

19/8

7

22

Aug 15-21

14/5

13

20

Aug 22-28

32/3

23

41

Aug 29-31

13/3

4

12

AUG

88/24

54

105

 

Violence By Province Aug 2020

Province

Violence

Anbar

6 Incidents

8 Killed

3 ISF

5 Civilians

5 Wounded

2 ISF

3 Hashd

 

3 Shootings

3 IEDs

Babil

4/1 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Hashd

3 Wounded

3 ISF

 

4 IEDs

Baghdad

18/17 Pro-Iran Incidents

2 Killed

2 Civilians

 

1 Shooting

4 IEDs

13 Rockets

Basra

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

Dhi Qar

3 Pro-Iran Incidents

 

3 IEDs

Diwaniya

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

Diyala

25 Incidents

22 Killed

3 Hashd

6 ISF

13 Civilians

40 Wounded

4 Hashd

15 ISF

21 Civilians

 

16 Shootings

5 IEDs

4 Mortars

Irbil

1 Incident

2 Wounded

2 ISF

 

1 IED

Kirkuk

9 Incidents

8 Killed

3 Civilians

5 ISF

23 Wounded

4 Hashd

5 ISF

14 Civilians

 

5 Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

Ninewa

10 Incidents

12 Wounded

2 UN Workers

4 ISF

6 Civilians

 

12 IEDs

Salahaddin

10/1 Pro-Iran Incident

13 Killed

1 Civilian

12 ISF

20 Wounded

3 Civilians

17 ISF

 

7 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Rocket

 

SOURCES

 

NINA, "A brigade Commander and a first lieutenant officer were killed in an ISIS attack in Heet," 7/29/20

- "A Leader In The PMF Martyred IN An ISIS Attack In Khanaqin, Diyala," 8/29/20

- "An officer and a fighter of the Anti-Terrorism Service killed in an explosive device in the Makhoul Mountains," 8/21/20

 

NRT, "PMF Commander Killed In ISIS Attack In Khanaqin's Shirk Village," 8/28/20

 

Shafaaq News, "A bombing kills a commander in the crowd in Salahaddin," 7/17/20

 

Xinhua, "Iraqi senior officer killed in bomb explosion in northern Baghdad," 8/21/20

 


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting to say the least. From where did you get the data?

Joel Wing said...

Reading 40 media outlets a day and collecting attack data. Sources are always listed at the end. This being the monthly summary only has the works cited. If you go back to the weekly reports all the sources are listed.

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