Thursday, November 4, 2021

Oct Saw Another Drop In Violence In Iraq


Winter is usually when the insurgency takes off and that’s true this year. Attacks by the Islamic State were down for the second month. Incidents by pro-Iran groups also decreased in October.

 

There were a total of 72 incidents reported in the media in October. There were 81 incidents in September and 133 in August.


 

There were five attacks by pro-Iran groups. They hit convoys working for the U.S. in Basra, Baghdad, and Dhi Qar twice. Three IEDs were also dismantled in Babil along the international highway the trucks regularly travel upon. At the end of the month rockets were fired at the intelligence headquarters but fell short on the Mansour district. Prime Minister Mustafa Kazemi was in the building during the attack which might have been a message to the government over the election results where the Hashd factions did very badly.

 

Islamic State attacks peaked at 103 in August the most of the year before dropping to 70 in September and 65 in October.

 

Those occurred in Anbar (2), Baghdad (7), Diyala (22), Kirkuk (13), Ninewa (10), and Salahaddin (11).

 

They left 61 dead and 86 wounded. 1 Hashd al-Shaabi, 2 Peshmerga, 12 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and 46 civilians were killed and 5 Hashd, 20 ISF and 61 civilians were injured. Diyala had half of the casualties with 79.


 

Anbar had the fewest IS incidents during the month. A suicide car bomb was destroyed in Ramadi, a rarity these days, and a checkpoint was attacked in the Rutba district in the west. The province is used as a supply route for the insurgency and therefore has few attacks during the year.




 

Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin were mostly sideshows in October. Of the 13 incidents in Kirkuk the biggest were two attacks upon voting stations during the election and two gun battles. Salahaddin was very similar with two shoot outs and four checkpoints attacked in one night. Attacks actually slightly increased in those two provinces. Ninewa is a logistics hub like Anbar. Most attacks are usually to keep civilians and the security forces away from its area of operations. There were two attacks upon checkpoints as well and a town was hit by mortar fire.


 

Diyala witnessed the most explosive event of the month. IS attacked a town in the Muqdadiya district in the center after it refused to pay ransom for two people it kidnapped. The attack left 17 dead and 26 wounded. The tribesmen then carried out a retaliatory strike upon neighboring Nahr al-Imam which it blamed for the incident. They killed seven people, burned 57 families, destroyed fields, and 350 families fled the violence. The Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights said that Hashd factions also executed civilians in the aftermath. The government sent forces and a curfew has been placed over the district ever since in an attempt to stamp out anymore retribution. IS has not been able to set off this much tension in years.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Oct 1-7

Oct 8-14

Oct 15-21

Oct 22-28

Oct 29-31

Totals

Anbar

1

-

1

-

-

2

Babil

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Baghdad

1

1

1

5/1 Pro-Iran

1 Pro-Iran

9/2 Pro-Iran

Basra

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Dhi Qar

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

1 Pro-Iran

-

2 Pro-Iran

Diyala

7

2

1

8/1 Retaliation

5

23/1 Retaliation

Kirkuk

2

5

2

1

3

13

Ninewa

1

3

2

2

2

10

Salahaddin

5

2

-

4

-

11

TOTAL

17

14/1 Pro-Iran

9/2 Pro-Iran

21/2 Pro-Iran/1 Retaliation

11/1 Pro-Iran

72/6 Pro-Iran/1 Retaliation

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Oct 1-7

Oct 8-14

Oct 15-21

Oct 22-28

Oct 29-31

Totals

Baghdad

1 (1K)

2 (2W)

-

3 (1K, 2W)

 

6 (2K, 4W)

Diyala

8 (5K, 3W)

3 (3W)

2 (2W)

64 (29K, 35)

2 (2W)

79 (34K, 45W)

Kirkuk

4 (4W)

5 (2K, 3W)

1 (1K)

1 (1K)

6 (5K, 1W)

17 (9K, 8W)

Ninewa

2 (2W)

1 (1K)

2 (2K)

6 (3K, 3W)

6 (2k, 4W)

17 (8K, 9W)

Salahaddin

18 (5K, 13W)

6 (1K, 5W)

-

4 (2K, 2W)

 

28 (8K, 20W)

TOTAL

33 (11K, 22W)

17 (4K, 13W)

5 (3K, 2W)

78 (36K, 42W)

14 (7K, 7W)

147 (61K, 86W)

 

 

August Totals – 28 (2) – 3 Fijians killed

9/4/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Diwaniya

9/6/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil

9/8/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya

9/11/21

Drone – Irbil International Airport

9/12/12

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Muthanna

9/21/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

9/22/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Baghdad

9/25/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

 

Rockets – Turkish Base, Ninewa

 

September Totals – 11

10/13/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra

10/19/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

10/21/21

3 IEDs dismantled – Babil

10/22/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar

10/28/21

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad

10/31/21

Rockets – Landed in Mansour, Baghdad

 

October Totals – 5 (1)

 

Security In Iraq 2021

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

21/2

13

19

Jan 8-14

17/3

12

6

Jan 15-21

20/3

52

133

Jan 22-28

10/3

13

12

Jan 29-31

9/1

2

6

JAN

77/13

92

176

Feb 1-7

19/2

11

23

Feb 8-14

11/3

4

8

Feb 15-21

20/7

11

23

Feb 22-28

13/4

13

23

FEB

63/16

39

77

Mar 1-7

19/5

5

8

Mar 8-14

12/2

13

15

Mar 15-21

24/6

8

7

Mar 22-28

14/2

8

13

Mar 29-31

9/5

2

1

MAR

79/20

39

44

Apr 1-7

16/10

3

5

Apr 8-14

15/6

6

18

Apr 15-21

32/4

19

44

Apr 22-28

31/6

15

42

Apr 29-30

12/1

11

23

APR

107/27

54

132

May 1-7

36/8

33

37

May 8-14

31/5

14

25

May 15-21

15/2

3

3

May 22-28

20/9

3

24

May 29-31

11

6

11

MAY

113/24

59

100

Jun 1-7

12/5

6

29

Jun 8-14

22/10

7

7

Jun 15-21

24/4

14

14

Jun 22-28

19/2

10

17

Jun 29-30

5

-

21

JUN

83/21

36

87

Jul 1-7

38/9

11

35

Jul 8-14

25/4

7

17

Jul 15-21

20/1

48

75

Jul 22-28

10/1

10

7

Jul 29-31

16/5

30

30

JUL

110/20

106

164

Aug 1-7

44/5

12

19

Aug 8-14

31/6

17

23

Aug 15-21

25/8

12

18

Aug 22-28

21/9

8

10

Aug 29-31

12/2

5

12

AUG

133/30

54

82

Sep 1-7

21/3

12

24

Sep 8-14

28/3

24

36

Sep 15-21

13/1

5

17

Sep 22-28

17/4

13

9

Sep 29-30

2

-

-

SEP

81/11

54

86

Oct 1-7

17

11

22

Oct 8-14

14/1

4

13

Oct 15-21

9/2

3

2

Oct 22-28

21/1/1

36

42

Oct 29-31

11/1

7

7

OCT

72/6/1

61

86

 

Violence By Province Oct 15-21, 2021

Province

Violence

2018 Avg

2019 Avg

2020 Avg

2021 Avg

Anbar

2 Incidents

 

1 Shooting

1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed

12.6 incidents/

month

8.6 incidents/ month

7.0 incidents/ month

5.3 incidents/ month

Babil

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

4.0 incidents/month

3.0 incidents/month

2.75 incidents/month

2.6 incidents/month

Baghdad

9/2 Pro-Iran Incidents

2 Killed

2 Civilians

4 Wounded

4 Civilians

 

3 Shootings

1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb

1 Sound Bomb

1 Mortar

1 Rocket

33.0 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

7.3 incidents/month

6.7 incidents/ month

Dhi Qar

2 Pro-Iran Incidents

 

2 IEDs

 

 

 

 

Diyala

23/1 Retaliation Incident

34 Killed

1 Hashd

5 ISF

28 Civilians

45 Wounded

3 Hashd

5 ISF

37 Civilians

 

13 Shootings

3 IEDs

7 Mortars

34.5 incidents/month

30.0 incidents/month

30.6 incidents/month

22.9 incidents/month

Kirkuk

13 Incidents

9 Killed

2 Peshmerga

2 ISF

5 Civilians

8 Wounded

2 Hashd

6 ISF

 

8 Shootings

1 Sticky Bomb

1 Mortar

36.5 incidents/month

18.6 incidents/month

13.9 incidents/month

12.3 incidents/month

Ninewa

10 Incidents

8 Killed

2 ISF

6 Civilians

9 Wounded

4 ISF

5 Civilians

 

4 Shootings

4 IEDs

2 Mortars

20.0 incidents/month

14.0 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

8.7 incidents/month

Salahaddin

11 Incidents

8 Killed

3 ISF

5 Civilians

20 Wounded

5 ISF

15 Civilians

 

7 Shootings

1 IED

2 Sound Bombs

1 Mortar

21.7 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

11.2 incidents/month

12.3 incidents/month

 

SOURCES

 

Ali, Amir, Mohammed, Araz, Hussein, Mohammed, Porter, Lizzie, and Tahir, Rawaz, “Suspected Islamic State attack triggers deadly sectarian reprisal in Diyala,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/29/21

 

Bas News, “Monitoring Group Says Shia Militias Executed Sunni Civilians in Retaliation for IS Attack,” 11/3/21

 

Iraq Newspaper, "The terrorist Daesh claims an attack on the Iraqi forces in Diyala," 10/26/21

 

Al Mada, “The government calls for action .. Ministry of Migration: 57 houses were burned in Muqdadiya,” 11/2/21

 

Mahmoud, Sinan, "ISIS attack fuels sectarian tension in Iraq's Diyala province," The National, 10/27/21

 

Al Nasiriya, "Dismantling an explosive device planted on the international highway south of Nasiriya," 10/22/21

 

NINA, "A convoy of logistical support for the international coalition forces was targeted with an explosive device, north of Baghdad," 10/28/21

- "A Convoy Of Logistical Support For The Int'l Coalition Targeted With An IED In Dhi Qar," 10/19/21

- "Four mortar shells fell south of Hatra in Nineveh," 10/10/21

- “Re-imposition of a curfew in Muqdadiya, in Diyala,” 11/3/21

 

NRT, "Ramadi Car Bomb Attack Thwarted A Week Before Election," 10/4/21

- "Thirteen Killed, At Least 30 Others Wounded In ISIS Attack In Diyala," 10/27/21

 

Shafaq News, "An explosion targets a support convoy for the international coalition in the far south of Iraq," 10/13/21

 

Shafaq News, "ISIS militants attack a village in Anbar," 10/21/21

- "Source: Al-Mansour bombing in Baghdad targeted the Iraqi intelligence headquarters at the moment of Al-Kazemi's presence," 10/31/21

- "Thwarting an attempt to target logistical support columns with three bombs in Babylon (photos)," 10/21/21

 

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