After reaching the highest oil profits in more than two years, Iraq’s revenues dipped a bit in February 2018 due to a slight decrease in exports and the price for its crude.
In February, Iraq’s
Oil Ministry exported an average of 3.426 million barrels a day. That was down from
January’s 3.49 million, but still above last year’s mark of 3.309 million barrels.
The decrease was due to bad weather in southern Iraq, which often delays
tankers docking and pipeline leaks. The country’s output always fluctuates.
Iraq’s exports could
have been higher but political disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
has taken much of Kirkuk’s oil production offline. The Bai Hassan and Avana Dome fields produce around 300,000 barrels a
day, but there is no place to send it. Before, much of that output was being
sold by the KRG via its pipeline to Turkey. In October 2017, however Baghdad took
over the province and refuses to use the Kurds’ pipeline until the differences
between the central and regional governments are resolved. There was a plan to
truck some of the oil to a refinery in Iran, but threats by the Islamic State
in eastern Iraq has put that on hold.
A barrel of Iraqi
crude went for $60.14. That was off a bit from January’s $63.29, the highest
price it had fetched since November 2014. Still, making over $60 per barrel is
a welcomed development for Iraq that was only making around $40 per barrel in
2017, and an even lower price in 2016.
That earned Baghdad
$5.77 billion. From November to January it was making over $6 billion a month
with a high point of $6.847 billion in January, the most since September 2014.
These figures bode
well for the newly passed 2018 budget which is based upon 3.8 million barrels a day of exports at $46 per
barrel. 250,000 barrels of that is supposed to come from Kurdistan. Iraq has
reached 3.5 million in exports only twice in November and December 2017. It
could very well achieve that again this year, but there’s no telling whether
that is sustainable due to the natural ebb and flow in exports. The Kurds
however, that exported 364,000 barrels a day in February, objected to the
budget law because their allocation was cut. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi has
been unwilling to make any meaningful compromises with the KRG because he is
using them in his election campaign. The projected deficit in oil sales can be
made up in part by the fact that oil prices are much higher than $46 per
barrel.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2018
|
Month
|
Avg Export
(Mil)
|
Avg Price
|
Earnings
(Bil)
|
|
Jan 2014
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.073
|
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$7.9
|
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
|
Apr
|
2.51
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
|
May
|
2.58
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
|
Jun
|
2.423
|
$102.96
|
$7.47
|
|
Jul
|
2.442
|
$102.27
|
$7.8
|
|
Aug
|
2.375
|
$97.44
|
$7.172
|
|
Sep
|
2.542
|
$90.76
|
$7
|
|
Oct
|
2.461
|
$81.12
|
$6.19
|
|
Nov
|
2.51
|
$70.40
|
$5.238
|
|
Dec
|
2.94
|
$57
|
$5.195
|
|
2014 Totals
|
2.517
|
$92.39
|
$7.017
|
|
Jan 2015
|
2.535
|
$41.45
|
$3.258
|
|
Feb
|
2.597
|
$47.43
|
$3.449
|
|
Mar
|
2.980
|
$48.24
|
$3.449
|
|
Apr
|
3.077
|
$51.70
|
$4.8
|
|
May
|
3.145
|
$55.87
|
$5.447
|
|
Jun
|
3.187
|
$55.32
|
$5.289
|
|
Jul
|
3.105
|
$50.99
|
$4.908
|
|
Aug
|
3.079
|
$40.59
|
$3.925
|
|
Sep
|
3.052
|
$40.32
|
$3.725
|
|
Oct
|
2.703
|
$39.56
|
$3.29
|
|
Nov
|
3.363
|
$36.42
|
$3.66
|
|
Dec
|
3.216
|
$29.84
|
$2.92
|
|
2015 Totals
|
3.003
|
$44.81
|
$4.094
|
|
Jan 2016
|
3.285
|
$22.21
|
$2.262
|
|
Feb
|
3.224
|
$23
|
$2.249
|
|
Mar
|
3.287
|
$28.40
|
$2.894
|
|
Apr
|
3.363
|
$33.38
|
$3.368
|
|
May
|
3.2
|
$37.78
|
$3.748
|
|
Jun
|
3.175
|
$40.36
|
$3.845
|
|
Jul
|
3.203
|
$38.28
|
$3.802
|
|
Aug
|
3.229
|
$29.24
|
$3.928
|
|
Sep
|
3.276
|
$38.89
|
$3.822
|
|
Oct
|
3.384
|
-
|
$4.426
|
|
Nov
|
3.47
|
$40
|
$4.216
|
|
Dec
|
3.52
|
-
|
$5.074
|
|
2016 Totals
|
3.302
|
-
|
$3.625
|
|
Jan 2017
|
3.321
|
-
|
$5.002
|
|
Feb
|
3.270
|
-
|
$4.514
|
|
Mar
|
3.258
|
$47.18
|
$4.766
|
|
Apr
|
3.253
|
$47.27
|
$4.607
|
|
May
|
3.261
|
$47
|
$4.623
|
|
Jun
|
3.273
|
$42.07
|
$4.144
|
|
Jul
|
3.230
|
$43.80
|
$4.386
|
|
Aug
|
3.216
|
-
|
$4.608
|
|
Sep
|
3.24
|
-
|
$4.882
|
|
Oct
|
3.346
|
$52.59
|
$5.456
|
|
Nov
|
3.502
|
$59.19
|
$6.021
|
|
Dec
|
3.535
|
$59.35
|
$6.504
|
|
2017 Totals
|
3.309
|
-
|
$4.959
|
|
Jan 2018
|
3.49
|
$63.29
|
$6.847
|
|
Feb
|
3.426
|
$60.14
|
$5.77
|
SOURCES
Aboulenein, Ahmed and
Rasheed, Ahmed, “UPDATE 2-Iraqi parliament approves budget, Kurdish lawmakers
boycott vote,” Reuters, 3/3/18
Lando, Ben,
“February exports climb, despite hurdles,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/1/18
Van Heuvelen, Ben,
Lando, Ben, Kullab, Samya, “Kirkuk oil still hostage to political stalemates,”
Iraq Oil Report, 3/1/18
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