Violence Slightly Up In Iraq As Islamic State Launches Revenge Campaign

 

Violence in Iraq slightly increased in December as the Islamic State launched a revenge campaign for the death of its leader. Pro-Iran groups also carried out one attack during the month. Overall attacks remained at an all-time low however.

 

In December there were a total of 33 security incidents reported in the media. That compared to 23 in November, 28 in October and 41 in September.

 

1 of the incidents in December was done by a pro-Iran group which fired rockets at a Turkish military base in northern Ninewa at the start of the month. This is a common target as these factions complain about the foreign presence in their country. At the same time these groups are barely active anymore as they are more focused upon running the new government they helped form.

 

That left 32 incidents by the Islamic State. That was up from 23 in November and 23 in October. The slight increase was due to the death of the organization’s leader which was announced in December. The group tried to start a campaign to mark his death but it didn’t amount to much because it is so weak right now in Iraq.

 

The incidents took place in Babil (4), Baghdad (3), Diyala (4), Karbala (1), Kirkuk (7), Ninewa (9), and Salahaddin (4).

 

They left 42 dead and 38 wounded. 5 Hashd al-Shaabi, 15 civilians and 22 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were killed and 9 Hashd, 13 ISF and 16 civilians were injured. Kirkuk had the most casualties with 24 followed by 17 in Diyala, 14 in Ninewa, and 10 in Baghdad. The other provinces were in single digits.

 

IS’s revenge campaign was marked by 6 suicide bombers being killed during December. One was killed in Karbala governorate by the Hashd. Not only are suicide bombers a rare occurrence these days as IS has lost its networks but attacks into the south are just as uncommon. The fact that all the bombers were intercepted shows the increased capabilities of the Iraqi security forces.

 

Out of the 32 incidents only 6 were offensive. That included two villages being attacked in northern Diyala and an attack upon the police in the same province. An army unit was assaulted and rockets were fired at a village in Ninewa while there was another clash with the Hashd in Salahaddin. This was one more sign of the weakness of the insurgency. Even when it tries to pick up its operations in a campaign its barely able to do much and most of its strength is still focused upon keeping the government and civilians out of its base areas.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14	Dec 15-21	Dec 22-28	Dec 29-31	Totals
Babil	4	-	-	-	-	4
Baghdad	2	1	-	-	-	3
Diyala	-	-	2	2	-	4
Karbala	1		-	-	-	1
Kirkuk	-	2	2	2	1	7
Ninewa	4/1 Pro-Iran	2	2	1	1	10/1 Pro-Iran
Salahaddin	2	1	-	1	-	4
TOTAL	13/1 Pro-Iran	6	6	6	2	33/1 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Dec 1-7	Dec 8-14	Dec 15-21	Dec 22-28	Dec 29-31	Totals
Babil	7 (2K, 5W)	-	-	-	-	7 (2K, 5W)
Baghdad	3 (2K, 1W)	7 (4K, 3W)	-	-	-	10 (6K, 4W)
Diyala	-	-	17 (10K, 7W)	-	-	17 (10K, 7W)
Karbala	5 (1K, 4W)		-	-	-	5 (1K, 4W)
Kirkuk	-	4 (1K, 3W)	17 (15K, 2W)	3 (3W)	-	24 (16K, 8W)
Ninewa	-	3 (1K, 2W)	10 (4K, 6W)	1 (1W)	-	14 (5K, 9W)
Salahaddin	2 (1K, 1W)	1 (1K)	-	-	-	3 (2K, 1W)
TOTAL	17 (6K, 11W)	15 (7K, 8W)	44 (29K, 15W)	4 (4W)	-	80 (42K, 38W)

 

Security In Iraq 2022

Week	Security Incidents (Total/By IS)	Dead (Total/By IS)	Wounded (Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7	18/9	3	4
Jan 8-14	35/21	3	18
Jan 15-21	12/5	17	12
Jan 22-28	16/3	8	19
Jan 29-31	6/2	2	6
JAN	87/41	33	59
Feb 1-7	11/3	1	10
Feb 8-14	14/6	8	3
Feb 15-21	9/1	-	11
Feb 22-28	8/4	1	5
FEB	42/14	10	29
Mar 1-7	7/3	1	-
Mar 8-14	18/3/1	6	5
Mar 15-21	10/4	5	6
Mar 22-28	6/1	7	4
Mar 29-31	4/1	-	5
MAR	46/12/1	19	21
Apr 1-7	16/8	-	6
Apr 8-14	21/7	8	25
Apr 15-21	22/2	10	22
Apr 22-28	44/4	14	44
Apr 29-30	6/1	2	6
APR	111/22	34	103
May 1-7	31/3	8	25
May 8-14	9/2	2	7
May 15-21	18/6	10	6
May 22-28	13/1	21	11
May 29-31	2/1	-	2
MAY	73/13	41	51
Jun 1-7	6/2	-	8
Jun 8-14	12/4	1	9
Jun 15-21	10/2	5	2
Jun 22-28	12/6	1	14
Jun 29-30	-	-	-
JUN	40/14	7	33
Jul 1-7	7/1	6	11
Jul 8-14	3	-	2
Jul 15-21	11/2	14	16
Jul 22-28	18/7	9	21
Jul 29-31	4	4	4
JUL	43/6	33	54
Aug 1-7	9/1	6	15
Aug 8-14	14	2	14
Aug 15-21	7/2	-	6
Aug 22-28	23/4	14	15
Aug 29-31	4	2	4
AUG	57/7/1	24	54
Sep 1-7	11/1	3	20
Sep 8-14	5	-	12
Sep 15-21	12	4	14
Sep 22-28	10/2 M	2	16
Sep 29-30	3/1 M	-	2
SEP	41/1/3 M	9	64
Oct 1-7	9/2 M	6	16
Oct 8-14	8/2/1 M	5	19
Oct 15-21	6	4	7
Oct 22-28	3	2	1
Oct 29-31	2	-	2
OCT	28/2/3 M	17	45
Nov 1-7	7	1	3
Nov 8-14	6	1	8
Nov 15-21	8	7	17
Nov 22-28	2	1	-
Nov 29-30	-	-	-
NOV	23	10	28
Dec 1-7	13/1	6	11
Dec 8-14	6	7	8
Dec 15-21	6	29	15
Dec 22-28	6	-	4
Dec 29-31	2	-	-
DEC	33/1	42	38

 

Violence By Province Dec 2022

Province	Violence	2018 Avg	2019 Avg	2020 Avg	2021 Avg	2022 Avg
Anbar	-	12.6 incidents/ month	8.6 incidents/ month	7.0 incidents/ month	4.6 incidents/ month	2.0 incidents/month
Babil	4 Incidents 2 Killed 2 Hashd 5 Wounded 5 Hashd   1 Shooting 2 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers Killed	4.0 incidents/month	3.0 incidents/month	2.7 incidents/month	2.5 incidents/month	2.0 incidents/month
Baghdad	3 Incidents 6 Killed 1 Civilian 2 Hashd 3 ISF 4 Wounded 4 ISF   2 Shootings 1 IEDs	33.0 incidents/month	11.6 incidents/month	7.3 incidents/month	5.6 incidents/ month	3.5 incidents/month
Diyala	4 Incidents 10 Killed 10 Civilians 7 Wounded 7 Civilians   3 Shootings 1 Suicide Bomber Killed	38.6 incidents/month	30.0 incidents/month	30.6 incidents/month	22.8 incidents/month	12.2 incidents/month
Karbala	1 Incident 1 Killed 1 Hashd 4 Wounded 4 Hashd   2 Suicide Bombers Killed
Kirkuk	7 Incidents 16 Killed 16 ISF 8 Wounded 3 Civilians 5 ISF   5 Shootings 4 IEDs	36.5 incidents/month	18.6 incidents/month	13.9 incidents/month	11.6 incidents/month	8.2 incidents/month
Ninewa	10/1 Pro-Iran Incident 5 Killed 2 ISF 3 Civilians 9 Wounded 3 ISF 6 Civilians   2 Shootings 3 IEDs 3 Rockets 1 Mortar	20.0 incidents/month	13.2 incidents/month	10.6 incidents/month	8.4 incidents/month	6.0 incidents/month
Salahaddin	4 Incidents 2 Killed 1 Civilian 1 ISF 1 Wounded 1 ISF   3 Shootings 1 IED	21.7 incidents/month	10.6 incidents/month	11.2 incidents/month	11.5 incidents/month	5.5 incidents/month
IRAQ	-	166.6 incidents/month	95.5 incidents/month	85.5 incidents/month	69.9 incidents/month	40.2 incidents/month

 

SOURCES

 

Al Aalem, “The recent ISIS attacks … experts delve into their causes and compare them to what happened before 2014,” 12/21/22

 

Aldroubi, Mina, “ISIS announces new leader after terrorist chief killed in battle,” The National, 11/30/22

 

Bas News, "Turkish Base in Iraq Attacked with Rockets," 12/3/22

 

Al Bawaba, "12 policemen killed in Kirkuk," 12/19/22

 

Johnston, Holly, "Iraq 'neutralises' suicide bombers in Karbala," The National, 12/6/22

 

Middle East Eye, "Iraq: Suspected militants kill eight civilians near Baghdad," 12/20/22

 

NINA, "9 federal policemen, including an officer, killed in a terrorist attack west of Kirkuk" 12/18/22

- "Foiling a terrorist attack on a village north of Baquba," 12/25/22

- "The Popular Mobilization repelled an attack by ISIS in Salah Al-Din," 12/6/22

- "A security source: The Iraqi army repelled an ISIS attack southeast of Mosul," 12/4/22

 

Shafaq News, "Behbehani attack in Karbala .. The injury ends the life of a member of the Popular Mobilization Forces," 12/6/22