June 2018 Islamic State Rebuilding In Rural Areas Of Central Iraq

Since the Islamic State lost the last piece of Iraqi territory at the end of 2017 it has gone through three trends. First, for a few months after the group’s defeat, there was a period of residual violence. At the very end of that time, there was a decided change in tactics away from the usual mix of bombings and shootings to the rural areas in the center of the country. Then there was a sharp decline in attacks as the militants regrouped. Now IS is attempting to regain control of those agriculture and border places, while also increasing its direct confrontations with the security forces, which was what happened in June 2018.

Anbar, Babil, Baghdad and Ninewa are a sign of the reorganizing that the Islamic State made. In the first two there was an uptick in violence at the start of 2018, but since then there has been a sharp decline. Babil followed the same pattern, but incidents peaked in the fall of 2017. In Anbar, there were an average of just 0.3 incidents per day in January 2018, climbing to 0.8 in March, before falling back afterward. Similarly, in Baghdad, there was a terrorist campaign starting in January with 3.3 incidents per day then declining to 1.1 by June. Babil reached a high of 0.4 incidents per day from August to October before dipping down to 0.1-0.2 for the last four months. Attacks in Ninewa have constantly dropped since the start of 2017, and reached a new low of just 0.4 incidents per day in June 2018. These were all once essential areas of operation for the insurgency. For instance, the vast desert regions and small towns along the Euphrates River in Anbar were perfect for IS to set up camps and traverse the length of the province. Babil was the main base for attacks into southern Baghdad and southern Iraq, while the capital was the main target for mass casualty bombings. Ninewa on the other hand, was where the organization regrouped after the Surge and eventually established its Iraqi capital in Mosul. The Islamists have since withdrawn from these areas to concentrate upon three core provinces.

Diyala, Kirkuk and Salahaddin are now the focus of Islamic State activity. The group is operating in all the rural areas of Diyala. There are an increasingly number of direct clashes with the security forces and attacks upon villages. In Kirkuk, most incidents occur in the two southern districts of Hawija and Daquq. IS is trying to re-establish its economic base there taxing farmers. There were more attacks upon towns there as well, along with kidnappings. In July, there were an average of 1.8 incidents per day in that governorate, the most since 1.9 in May 2016. Finally, in Salahaddin incidents jumped as well to 1.4 per day in June, the highest since January. There were several kidnappings there, which caused a huge controversy for the government after several were found executed at the end of the month. The same tactics were being used in all three provinces. Intimidation of rural towns through demanding taxes, burning fields for those that refused, killing and kidnapping local officials and security forces (ISF), and more attacks upon the ISF. These areas were never really cleared by the government. Current security operations have proven ineffective, going through an area and then leaving. IS still has enough sway that locals are not coming forward in large numbers with information to the government to stop it. If the Iraqi forces were receiving good intelligence many of these incidents would be stopped before they occurred. That doesn’t mean they have much support, but they are able to impose a level of threats and violence to subdue the public for now.

Diyala	Shootings	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs	Mortars	Gun Battles	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	18	23	6	2	2	-	1	1
Feb	10	13	-	4	-	-	1	-
Mar	16	21	5	13	3	1	-	-
Apr	12	17	3	1	1	-	-	-
May	9	11	4	1	2	3	1	-
Jun	22	17	4	5	1	5	-	-

Kirkuk	Shootings	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs	Mortars	Gun Battles	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	9	6	3	4	-	-	3	1
Feb	14	13	4	7	-	-	1	-
Mar	14	15	3	8	4	1	1	1
Apr	11	4	1	2	-	8	-	1
May	12	28	4	2	2	1	4	-
Jun	17	12	6	5	4	8	-	-

Salahaddin	Shootings	IEDs/ Sticky Bombs	Mortars	Gun Battles	Kidnappings	Attacks on Towns	Suicide Bombers	Car Bombs
Jan	3	9	2	8	-	-	-	1
Feb	6	5	-	1	2	-	-	-
Mar	13	8	-	9	3	-	1	-
Apr	4	8	-	2	-	-	1	-
May	3	10	1	10	-	1	1	-
Jun	10	15	1	5	8	-	-	1

This was the third month of the Turkish operation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Its army is making a slow march towards the PKK headquarters in the Qandil Mountains. That has led to a constant barrage of artillery and air strikes that left 120 PKK members dead. The Kurdish group has responded by killing 22 Turkish soldiers and wounding 1 more. When and if Ankara finally reaches the PKK’s mountain redoubt there could be heavy fighting and even greater casualties.

In June, there were 239 incidents reported. That averaged out to 7.9 incidents per day, the highest since March’s 9.9. Minus the ones in Kurdistan there were 217 incidents in the rest of Iraq. Kirkuk, 56, Diyala, 51, and Kirkuk, 42, had the most as could be expected.

There were 371 deaths and 218 wounded. 44 bodies were found during the month leaving 327 violent fatalities. If the Turkish-PKK confrontations were subtracted there were 228 killed and 217 injured in the rest of the country in June. 22 Turkish soldiers, 25 Hashd al-Shaabi, 43 ISF, 120 PKK, and 161 civilians lost their lives. 1 Turkish soldiers, 6 ISF and Hashd, 37 Hashd, 66 ISF, and 108 civilians were wounded Kurdistan had the most casualties with 138, followed by 115 in Diyala, 99 in Salahaddin and 96 in Kirkuk.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province May-June 2018

Province	May	June
Anbar	9	13
Babil	4	8
Baghdad	46	33
Basra	-	2
Diyala	38	51
Halabja	-	1
Irbil	2	3
Kirkuk	48	56
KRG	15	18
Ninewa	20	12
Salahaddin	30	42

Casualties In Iraq By Province May-June 2018

Province	May 2018	June
Anbar	25 (6 K, 19 W)	11 (4 K, 7W)
Babil	4 (4 W)	19 (6 K, 13 W)
Baghdad	146 (61 K, 85 W)	40 (18 K, 22 W)
Basra	-	1 (1K)
Dhi Qar	2 (2 K)	-
Diyala	80 (46 K, 34 W)	115 (41 K, 74 W)
Irbil	5 (5 K)	6 (6 K)
Kirkuk	90 (43 K, 47 W)	96 (35 K, 61 W)
KRG	80 (72 K, 8 W)	138 (137 K, 1 W)
Ninewa	65 (34 K, 31 W)	63 (57 K, 6 W)
Salahaddin	48 (29 K, 19 W)	99 (65 K, 34 W)

Security In Iraq 2017-18

Week	Security Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN 2017	719	1,923	4,374
FEB	628	1,891 + 399	2,511 + 1,634
MAR	720	3,504 + 278	3,302 + 2,925
APR	578	2,933	1,955
MAY	528	2,038	1,563
JUN	534	2,038	1,563
JUL	478	1,490	650
AUG	359	1,949	584
SEP	306	728	549
OCT	286	913	865 + 1,700
NOV	296	1,282	425
DEC	261	763	300
Jan 1-7	71	50	66
Jan 8-14	64	62	70
Jan 15-21	68	156	151
Jan 22-28	68	148	66
Jan 29-31	27	23	22
JAN 2018	298	439 (218 Violent Deaths)	375
Feb 1-7	66	196	67
Feb 8-14	65	63	93
Feb 15-21	59	346	43
Feb 22-28	55	44	72
FEB	245	649 (233 Violent Deaths)	275
Mar 1-7	78	120	84
Mar 8-14	60	84	61
Mar 15-21	67	168	98
Mar 22-28	81	213	61
Mar 29-31	21	26	35
MAR	307	611 (466 Violent Deaths)	339
Apr 1-7	40	174	29
Apr 8-14	64	175	83
Apr 15-21	44	63	72
Apr 22-28	44	62	48
Apr 29-30	12	12	4
APR	204	486 (240 Violent Deaths)	236
May 1-7	51	57	56
May 8-14	56	68	49
May 15-21	39	58	82
May 22-28	51	73	51
May 29-31	21	42	15
MAY	218	298 (273 Violent Deaths)	253
Jun 1-7	55	100	32
Jun 8-14	72	108	88
Jun 15-21	42	83	19
Jun 22-28	52	58	65
Jun 29-30	18	22	14
JUN	239	371 (327 Violent Deaths)	218

Violence By Province June 2018

Province	Violence
Anbar	13 Incidents 4 Killed 2 Civilians 2 ISF 7 Wounded 2 ISF 3 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs 4 Suicide Bombers Killed
Babil	8 Incidents 6 Killed 1 Civilian 5 ISF 13 Wounded 2 Civilians 3 ISF 8 Hashd 2 Shootings 5 IEDs
Baghdad	33 Incidents 18 Killed 18 Civilians 22 Wounded 22 Civilians 1 Shootings 10 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Grenade 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Basra	2 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Hashd 1 Shooting 1 Grenade
Diyala	51 Incidents 41 Killed 2 Hashd 14 ISF 25 Civilians 74 Wounded 4 Hashd 30 ISF 40 Civilians 32 Shootings 16 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 4 Mortars
Halabja	1 Incident 1 IED
Irbil	3 Incidents 6 Killed 1 Civilian 5 Turkish Soldiers 1 Shooting 1 Turkish Shelling
Kirkuk	56 Incidents 35 Killed 4 Hashd 7 ISF 24 Civilians 61 Wounded 15 Hashd 17 ISF 29 Civilians 25 Shootings 12 IEDs 6 Mortars 1 Rocket
Kurdistan	18 Incidents 137 Killed 17 Turkish Soldiers 120 PKK 1 Wounded 1 Turkish Soldier 3 Shootings 1 Rocket 16 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa	56 Incidents 35 Killed 4 Hashd 7 ISF 24 Civilians 61 Wounded 15 Hashd 17 ISF 29 Civilians 25 Shootings 12 IEDs 6 Mortars 1 Rocket
Salahaddin	42 Incidents 65 Killed 10 ISF 18 Hashd 37 Civilians 34 Wounded 4 Civilians 6 ISF & Hashd 10 Hashd 14 ISF 15 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Car Bomb 1 Mortar